Space Launch Alliance

ILS is managing all EELV and NASA launches on Atlas at the moment

Now SLA is to take over that responsibility

So what happens to ILS?

Stan

Stan wrote:
ILS is managing all EELV and NASA launches on Atlas at the moment

Now SLA is to take over that responsibility

So what happens to ILS?


From the joint press release:

"Lockheed Martin's International Launch Services (including Proton)
and Boeing Launch Services (including Sea Launch) are not included
in the joint venture. These entities will continue to sell launch
services to non-U.S. government customers. Additionally, work the
companies are performing independently in support of NASA-sponsored
Space Shuttle-Derived Launch Vehicle concepts for future space
exploration initiatives will be excluded from this joint venture."

So it appears that ILS and SeaLaunch will probably continue
launching commercial satellites on Proton and Zenit. There are
no current commericial contracts for Delta and only two projected
for Atlas. If any more were to materialize (and that is looking
like a big IF), ILS would probably handle the Atlas missions
and Boeing Launch Services would handle the Delta launches.

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:

So it appears that ILS and SeaLaunch will probably continue
launching commercial satellites on Proton and Zenit. There are
no current commericial contracts for Delta and only two projected
for Atlas.

A correction, there is only one possible commercial
launch projected for Atlas right now - and it does
not have a definite schedule. Both EELVs now appear to
have flopped in the commercial market.

Here is a list of completed and projected EELV missions.
Existing plans call for 13 Delta IV and 22 Atlas V flights
by 2010 or so. Note that because Delta IV numbers were
cut substantially due to the bid scandal, very few Delta
launches are planned after next year (which is why Boeing
was planning layoffs at Decatur). The Air Force EELV
"Buy-3", to be awarded soon, is expected to provide 20 or
so additional launches at an average rate of four launches
annually for each vehicle. This is a small fraction of
the maximum possible combined launch rate, which is around
50 or so for Atlas and Delta, including east and west coast
launch sites.

Note that this list, compiled from several sources, shows
a big pile-up of launches in 2006. I think that many of
these are likely to be pushed back to 2007 or later. I
expect that this manifest will gradually spread out to fit
the 8/year model.

EELV LAUNCHES COMPLETED

08-21-2002 Atlas-5(401) AV-001 CC-41 Hotbird 6
11-20-2002 Delta-4M+(4,2) D-293 CC-37B Eutelsat W5

03-11-2003 Delta-4M D-296 CC-37B DSCS-3 A3
05-13-2003 Atlas-5(401) AV-002 CC-41 Hellas-Sat 2
07-17-2003 Atlas-5(521) AV-003 CC-41 Rainbow 1
08-29-2003 Delta-4M D-301 CC-37B DSCS-3 B6

12-17-2004 Atlas-5(521) AV-005 CC-41 AMC 16
12-21-2004 Delta-4H D-310 CC-37B Demosat (Failed)

03-11-2005 Atlas 5-431 AV-004 CC-41 Inmarsat-4 F1

EELV LAUNCHES PROJECTED

2005 Delta-4M+(4,2) x CC-37B GOES N (NASA)
2005 Atlas-5(401) AV-007 CC-41 MRO (NASA)
2005 Delta-4M+(4,2) x VB-6 NROL 22
2005 Delta-4H x CC-37B DSP 23
2005 Delta-4M x VB-6 DMSP-5D3 F17

2006 Atlas-5(551) AV-010 CC-41 New Horizons (NASA)
2006 Atlas-5(521) x CC-41 WGS 1
2006 Atlas-5(411) AV-006 VB-3E NROL 28
2006 Delta-4H x CC-37B NROL 26
2006? Delta-4M x VB-6 NROL 25
2006? Delta-4M+(5,4) x CC-37B WGS 2
2006? Atlas-5(521) x CC-41 WGS 3
2006? Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 SBIRS-High 1
2006? Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 ASTRO/+8Usats
2006? Atlas-5(401) x VB-3E DMSP-5D3 F18
2006? Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 1
2006? Atlas-5(501) x CC-41 NROL 30
2006? Atlas-5(52x) x VB-3E NROL 29

2007 Delta-4M+(4,2) x CC-37B GOES O (NASA)
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 2
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 3
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 NROL 24
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 SBIRS-High 2

2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 SDO (NASA)
2008 Delta-4M+(4,2) x CC-37B SBIRS-High 3
2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 4
2008 Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 5
2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 6
2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 7

2009 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 8
2009 Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 9
2009 Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 10

TBD Atlas-5(501) x VB-3E NROL 39
TBD Atlas-5(501) x VB-3E NROL 41
TBD Atlas-5(501) x VB-3E NROL 45
TDB Atlas-5(xx1) x CC-41 Intelsat TBD

- Ed Kyle

What initially got me thinking was how can Lockheed in the form of ILS
support only Khrunichev rockets?

But then again didn't Khrunichev feel the same a few years ago when all
of ILS contracts were going to Lockheed...

Stan


Ed Kyle wrote:
Ed Kyle wrote:

So it appears that ILS and SeaLaunch will probably continue
launching commercial satellites on Proton and Zenit. There are
no current commericial contracts for Delta and only two projected
for Atlas.

A correction, there is only one possible commercial
launch projected for Atlas right now - and it does
not have a definite schedule. Both EELVs now appear to
have flopped in the commercial market.

Here is a list of completed and projected EELV missions.
Existing plans call for 13 Delta IV and 22 Atlas V flights
by 2010 or so. Note that because Delta IV numbers were
cut substantially due to the bid scandal, very few Delta
launches are planned after next year (which is why Boeing
was planning layoffs at Decatur). The Air Force EELV
"Buy-3", to be awarded soon, is expected to provide 20 or
so additional launches at an average rate of four launches
annually for each vehicle. This is a small fraction of
the maximum possible combined launch rate, which is around
50 or so for Atlas and Delta, including east and west coast
launch sites.

Note that this list, compiled from several sources, shows
a big pile-up of launches in 2006. I think that many of
these are likely to be pushed back to 2007 or later. I
expect that this manifest will gradually spread out to fit
the 8/year model.

EELV LAUNCHES COMPLETED

08-21-2002 Atlas-5(401) AV-001 CC-41 Hotbird 6
11-20-2002 Delta-4M+(4,2) D-293 CC-37B Eutelsat W5

03-11-2003 Delta-4M D-296 CC-37B DSCS-3 A3
05-13-2003 Atlas-5(401) AV-002 CC-41 Hellas-Sat 2
07-17-2003 Atlas-5(521) AV-003 CC-41 Rainbow 1
08-29-2003 Delta-4M D-301 CC-37B DSCS-3 B6

12-17-2004 Atlas-5(521) AV-005 CC-41 AMC 16
12-21-2004 Delta-4H D-310 CC-37B Demosat (Failed)

03-11-2005 Atlas 5-431 AV-004 CC-41 Inmarsat-4 F1

EELV LAUNCHES PROJECTED

2005 Delta-4M+(4,2) x CC-37B GOES N (NASA)
2005 Atlas-5(401) AV-007 CC-41 MRO (NASA)
2005 Delta-4M+(4,2) x VB-6 NROL 22
2005 Delta-4H x CC-37B DSP 23
2005 Delta-4M x VB-6 DMSP-5D3 F17

2006 Atlas-5(551) AV-010 CC-41 New Horizons (NASA)
2006 Atlas-5(521) x CC-41 WGS 1
2006 Atlas-5(411) AV-006 VB-3E NROL 28
2006 Delta-4H x CC-37B NROL 26
2006? Delta-4M x VB-6 NROL 25
2006? Delta-4M+(5,4) x CC-37B WGS 2
2006? Atlas-5(521) x CC-41 WGS 3
2006? Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 SBIRS-High 1
2006? Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 ASTRO/+8Usats
2006? Atlas-5(401) x VB-3E DMSP-5D3 F18
2006? Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 1
2006? Atlas-5(501) x CC-41 NROL 30
2006? Atlas-5(52x) x VB-3E NROL 29

2007 Delta-4M+(4,2) x CC-37B GOES O (NASA)
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 2
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 3
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 NROL 24
2007 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 SBIRS-High 2

2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 SDO (NASA)
2008 Delta-4M+(4,2) x CC-37B SBIRS-High 3
2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 4
2008 Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 5
2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 6
2008 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 7

2009 Atlas-5(401) x CC-41 Navstar-2F 8
2009 Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 9
2009 Delta-4M x CC-37B Navstar-2F 10

TBD Atlas-5(501) x VB-3E NROL 39
TBD Atlas-5(501) x VB-3E NROL 41
TBD Atlas-5(501) x VB-3E NROL 45
TDB Atlas-5(xx1) x CC-41 Intelsat TBD

- Ed Kyle

Stan wrote:
What initially got me thinking was how can Lockheed in the form of
ILS
support only Khrunichev rockets?

But then again didn't Khrunichev feel the same a few years ago when
all
of ILS contracts were going to Lockheed...

Since 1995, there have been 32 ILS Proton launches
and 67 ILS Atlas flights. But many of the Atlas
missions were for the U.S. government. Proton has
handled the majority of ILS commercial launches
since 1998 (27 versus 22 for Atlas) - since the U.S.
cap on allowed flights was increased.

Now Space Launch Alliance will handle the more
lucrative (but still maybe unprofitable - at
least since EELV replaced classic Atlas) Atlas
U.S. government launches instead of ILS - in the
same way that Khrunichev keeps its Proton launches
for the Russian government out of ILS. There
may still be some Atlas ILS launches, but the
manifest shows very few prospects at present.

Why does Lockheed support ILS? Because it is
profitable to do so. The ILS commercial payloads
that fly on Proton largely represent market share
captured from Arianespace. These satellites would
not have flown on Atlas EELV for a variety of
reasons.

Boeing is doing the same thing with Sea Launch. It
doesn't build the rocket or launch the rocket. It
is just a partial owner of Sea Launch, but it is
still making money that would have gone to
Arianespace instead if it had tried to compete with
Delta IV for the launch services.

I could also say that Lockheed supports Krunichev
through ILS for the same reasons that it supports
Energomash through Atlas V, EADS through its
CEV proposal, Finnmeccanica through its U.S.
Presidential Helicopter contract, and Airbus through
its aerial tanker bid, among many examples. It is
because the U.S., like so many previous declining
empires, is allowing its production economy to be
dismantled.

- Ed Kyle