EELVs and market

Both EELV builders are saaing their products must depend on US government
business - that there is almost no comercial market they can capture. However,
four of the first six EELV launches were for comemrcial customers. How does
one reconcile the two facts? Were the early launches offered at a greatly
reduced rate?


Matt Bille
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OPINIONS IN ALL POSTS ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR

(MattWriter) wrote in
:

Both EELV builders are saaing their products must depend on US
government business - that there is almost no comercial market they
can capture. However, four of the first six EELV launches were for
comemrcial customers. How does one reconcile the two facts? Were the
early launches offered at a greatly reduced rate?

Early sign-ons? Saturated and competitive launch market?
Not that much business due to economic downturn?

Also note the low launch rate, far below the combined capacity
of both EELV manufacturing capability. The reality of the
launch market is going to make it a tough go.

--Damon

MattWriter wrote:
Both EELV builders are saaing their products must depend on US
government
business - that there is almost no comercial market they can capture.
However,
four of the first six EELV launches were for comemrcial customers.
How does
one reconcile the two facts? Were the early launches offered at a
greatly
reduced rate?


In effect, yes. Launch costs for both EELV's have nearly
doubled since the first contracts were let. In addition,
customers for the inaugural launches almost certainly
paid discounted prices.

One part of the problem is that there are two EELVs when
only one is necessary. Early estimates (see link below)
were that a single-EELV provider (there was only supposed
to be one) would have to capture 15% of the commercial
market (probably 4-5 launches per year) to meet DoD cost
reduction projections. That has not happened even with
both EELVs combined.

"http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/cpquery/?&db_id=cp105&r_n=hr206.105&sel=TOC_483950&"

DoD guaranteed itself higher launch costs by keeping both
programs alive. If one of the systems runs into trouble,
we might see program rationalization. I'm wondering, for
example, what happens if that big Delta 4H that has been
rooted to pad 37B for more than a year now fails.

- Ed Kyle