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Allen Thomson wrote:
Some decades of observation demonstrate that they don't ordinarily use their propulsive capability to avoid predictability. They use it infrequently (every few months) to keep their orbits tweaked up to ensure optimum coverage. But they do have that capability and it could be used to dodge a direct-ascent ASAT if: - There were sufficiently advanced warning. Like a half-hour if from DSP detection of ASAT launch. - The spysat controllers could figure out what was happening in that half-hour and push the EVADE button. - And the satellite could get outside the ASATs engagement envelope in the time available. - And it hadn't had to do this too many times before, because satellites have a finite fuel reserve and need it for other purposes (orbital maintenance) too. My intuition is that anyone putting up a billion-dollar spy satellite after the advent of direct-ascent ASATs would be grossly negligent to not include at least some sort of countermeasures against possible attack. If you spit out a couple of balloons, some flares, and a cloud of chaff or two, it certainly won't hurt the effectiveness of your evasive maneuver. Also, can we figure out the lighting at the time of intercept? Might tell us something about the sensor suite on the KV. -jake |
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