Orbital Debris Liability

: Lately I've been giving some thought to ownership and liability issues of
: orbiting objects and how increased satellite density and the accidents that
: follow will necessitate the creation of new legal remedies.

I tend to agree. I think that there is a very real complication that
is going unrecognized -- treaty provides for strict liability for damages.
There is, however, a slight practical problem -- establishing who is to blame.
Satellite collisions, unlike auto ones, are unlikely to have actual witnesses
let alone any surviving/retrievable physical evidence. How do you prove,
to whatever level the particular court demands, that some satellite/debris
launched by someone else is what *actually* caused your satellite to go
cold? (or explains 'apparent' damage as reflected in ephem, etc.).
Orbital analysis is deep math, with a very heavy reliance on such
problematic subjects as probability. Secondly, how do you even determine
fundamentals of orbits for most debris (as opposed to satellites where the
operators will have tracking/telem)? The biggest single source is
NavSpaSur. Every try and serve a subpoena on NavSpaSur? The raw data and
the precise algorithms it uses to generate ephem are classified. Indeed,
AFAIK, NavSpaSur provides ephem and collision warnings as a "charitable
service" and denies any/all responsibility or warranty/guarantee as to the
info they provide. And God knows the US government will fight tooth and
nail to keep it so.

So your 600 million dollar comsat suddenly goes blank. According to
your experts, using NavSpaSur ephem data, there is a "98% chance that
debris listed as coming from Launch XXX came within a box representing a
30% chance of collision." Now, the defendant says that since NavSpaSur
will not release the raw data nor algorithms it used to generate the ephem,
it can not be trusted as an "expert witness". Secondly, since data is
collected on debris only periodically, it can not be established that there
was a continuity in tracking the debris (i.e. its source is only "conjectured"
to be from Launch XXX). Thirdly, even IF the US government releases all
the data, all you are left with is a probability that does not satisfy
court requirements. And let's throw in yet another complication -- Since the
US government does not accurately/publicly list the ephem data on all of
its own satellites, then perhaps an unlisted US government satellite is the
culprit!
To make matters worse, suppose you are a European firm suing a
major US corporation like Boeing or Lockmart for a billion dollars. Is the
US government more likely to be nice and cooperate in your lawsuit?

There is a somewhat "counterintuitive" argument here. Since the US
is arguable one of the most porminent contributors to space debris, it is
likely that any possible accident will include US debris. The *better* the
US does at tracking space debris -- the *more likely* that it will gather
evidence that will could be used against it! One way around this, keep the
data classified. AFAIK, the underlying data to ephem messages (as well as
some of the messages themselves) are classified. Thus, they are only
released as the executive branch sees fit.

regards,
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