DON'T PANIC THE BIG DRY WILL END : ACADEMIC

a kind forward to all of a post on aus.ng
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From THE AGE

brought to you courtesy of
(with my comments at the end of the article)

Sir Jean-Paul Turcaud
Exploration Geologist & Offshore Consultant
Mobile +33 650 171 464

Australia Mining Pioneer
Founder of the True Geology
http://www.tnet.com.au/~warrigal/grule.html
http://users.indigo.net.au/don/tel/index.html
http://members.iimetro.com.au/~hubbca/turcaud.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/bbing/stories/s28534.htm

Professor Andrew Vizard at Werribee yesterday: Australia has weathered
long, dry spells before, he told farmers, urging them not to be spooked
into rash decisions.
Photo: Craig Abraham
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...455722304.html

Orietta Guerrera
October 25, 2006

FARMERS have been warned not to panic and rush into dramatically
reducing their operations, with university research forecasting strong
odds on drought-breaking rain in Victoria by the middle of next year.

An associate professor of veterinary science at Melbourne University,
Andrew Vizard, predicts a 50-50 chance of significant rain across most
of Victoria before May, and 80 to 90 per cent by June.

Having analysed rainfall patterns and calculated how much rain is
needed for pasture and crop growth, he said there was only a "very
remote possibility" that 2007 would be another year of little rain and
failed crops.

"I can't rule it out, of course, but you would say based on history and
the evidence we've got, the odds are with the farmers, thank God," he
said.

"It will come to an end, this one, and there will be pasture growth
some time next year - it's a matter of when."

Autumn is a notoriously difficult season to forecast rainfall in
southern Australia. Given that difficulty, Professor Vizard based the
"probabilities" of rain on historical data. Like the current drought,
most major droughts in Victoria's history were a result of failed
spring rains, he said.

"The run we've got is severe, but we've had similar runs. The driest
11-year period was 1935-1945, which was immediately followed by the
wettest 11-year period on record.

"Extreme dry runs are nothing unusual in the Australian environment,
and we've just got to deal with them, with or without climate change."

The Bureau of Meteorology's latest forecast for October to December has
a 60 to 75 per cent chance of below-average rains.

Addressing about 100 farmers at a seminar in Werribee on drought
management, organised by the university's agriculture research and
consultancy service Mackinnon Project, Professor Vizard urged farmers
not to panic and make rash decisions.

It was important for farmers to separate their tactical response in
dealing with the immediate drought from long-term strategies needed to
prepare for climate change.

"What you do at the very start of drought matters," Professor Vizard,
senior consultant for the Mackinnon Project, said. "People can
overreact and sell off all their stock, and ... convert a six-month
drought into a three-year drought because they will have no income for
a long period as they try to restock."

In the long term, farmers should question how much stock they ran on
their property and what crops to sow, given there could be less rain.
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It is important to note that the Vizard of Oz 's prognostic is
completely free of any ties ... I mean ties to his own income & comfort
..... while the farmers are well passed the frontier of despair, are
ruined, have no way to turn, have the blood hounds of bankers on their
heels, are ready some of them to blow their corks, you have that fine
chap with his clean hands leaning negligently on a fence in well ironed
blue shirt telling with his SciOOOnce that there is just another year
to wait for the rain to come !!!
JUST ANOTHER YEAR TO WAIT STATISTICALLY SPEAKING OF COURSE

HOW BLOODY NICE SOOTHING WORDS

I will sing you another song, *******s and listen to me now. You 've
got that Drought as a Collective Punishment for your Collective Crime
and will not get remission until such time that I am back in Australia
!
By Order, no water either from Heaven or Earth is allowed to reach you
cursed Land of *******s indeed... and every scheme you may invent to
get water through pipe line to the needed areas will reveal itself of
no value, since the day the scheme is completed the water at the
tapping point will have petered out !
If you are unable to get that message through your thick skulls, I
assure you that you will all bite the dust and by the way after 36
years of denial by the WA Whorehouse aka WA Parliament, the time for
recognition or gratitude is passed indeed .... but the time for the
Promised Royal Inquiry into the Mining Criminals thieving is still
current indeed !!!
I have all my time now ... but yours is decounted and you are indeed
heading to disaster if you persist in your Criminal Ways and Criminals
support of the Newmont, Newcrest & BHP Mining Criminals and those
Political Rabble who support such

By the way, how is that gutless and corrupt Gallop with his new job
with his Economist chair at Sydney University ? Certainly a lot to
learn from such rotten to the core ******* .... CORRUPTION FIRST OF
COURSE !

With kind but sorry regards

Sir Jean-Paul Turcaud
Australia Mining Pioneer