...Was the N Korean Missile Fired Towards Hawaii?

During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.

Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?

s

"jonathan" wrote in message
.. .

During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.


Given the flight lasted 42 seconds I'd be hard pressed to imagine it was
possible to plot much if any trajectory.


Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

Aiming, sure. Hitting, extremely unlikely given their current track record.



Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?

s

I remember seeing a map of the area showing where the missiles went.
They all fell in the Sea Of Japan heading basically North East, which
would not be toward Hawaii.



Greg D. Moore (Strider) wrote:
"jonathan" wrote in message
.. .

During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.


Given the flight lasted 42 seconds I'd be hard pressed to imagine it was
possible to plot much if any trajectory.


Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

Aiming, sure. Hitting, extremely unlikely given their current track record.



Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?

s

jonathan wrote:
During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.

Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?

s




I think the only direction they have in North Korea is up. Any other
direction is an error.



--
Since I'm not under oath, anything I say could be inaccurate.

Vlad the Impaler

" wrote:

:I remember seeing a map of the area showing where the missiles went.
:They all fell in the Sea Of Japan heading basically North East, which
:would not be toward Hawaii.

You don't remember very well. Likely impact area is almost pure
'east' from the launch site. The area shown includes the path a
missile would be on if it were aimed at Hawaii from their launch site.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:N...ImpactSite.png

--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...
" wrote:

:I remember seeing a map of the area showing where the missiles went.
:They all fell in the Sea Of Japan heading basically North East, which
:would not be toward Hawaii.

You don't remember very well. Likely impact area is almost pure
'east' from the launch site. The area shown includes the path a
missile would be on if it were aimed at Hawaii from their launch site.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:N...ImpactSite.png



South Korean report: Pyongyang may have readied another Taepodong-2
NBC News and news services
Updated: 9:47 a.m. ET July 7, 2006
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13743714/


I'm not sure we can sit by and let N Korea practice
pot-shots at the home of our Pacific Fleet in Hawaii.
This story might not be over yet.


s







--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

jonathan wrote:

During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.

I doubt they know.

Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

It's possible that if you continue the trajectory that the rocket was
fired on, that it would pass over Hawaii, and of course it would pass
over the west coast of the US as well.

The thing is nobody knows how far it is capable of flying, since the
first stage was aborted prematurely. And it could well have been intended
to change course along the way too. With only forty seconds of flight
it's hard to make any assumptions about anything. Could even have been
intended for orbital flight.

Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?

No, he just doesn't have any more information than you or I do. But it
is clear that the launch was intended to look confrontational.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

Fred J. McCall wrote:

You don't remember very well. Likely impact area is almost pure
'east' from the launch site.

That would be the smaller, easternmost impact site shown. The bigger
one with its long axis pointed NE is presumably for the other six
missiles, which were launched from a different location (just where is
unclear) than Musudan-ri.

The area shown includes the path a missile would be on if it were aimed at Hawaii from their launch site.

The problem is that the trajectory of a shot at Hawaii from Musudan-ri
is very close to that of a due-east satellite launch. The satellite
trajectory passes a bit to the west of Hawaii, but the divergence from
the Hawaii shot is small early in flight. So it would be tough to
distinguish between the two with only ~42 s of unambiguous first-stage
flight data to go on.

(Google Earth lets you draw great circle ground tracks and is handy for
getting a quick and not too inaccurate idea about such things. Remember
to put in a little lead to account for earth rotation (15 deg/hr)
during the flight.)

On Sun, 9 Jul 2006 19:49:15 -0400, "jonathan" wrote:

During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.

Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?


No, he isn't. There are lots of people out peddling conspiracy
theories about how Kim Jong-Il is planning to nuke Hawaii or
Alaska as soon as he gets missiles working, and therefore if
Bush II had any sense we'd go nuke North Korea into oblivion
right now.

And I understand the appeal of that sort of thing. Especially
in contrast with the ongoing war in Iraq, this would be a most
righteous crusade against an Insane Supervillian(tm) plotting
Nefarious Evil(tm) with his Weapons of Mass Destruction(tm).
A war devoid of moral ambiguity, devoid of sympathetic innocent
bystanders (the North Korean people being rather media-invisible
these days), and perhaps most importantly a war devoid of any
possibility of American defeat or even significant American
casualties. At least in the conspiracy-fantasy version, this
would be almost as glorious as World War II, the war every
red-blooded American wants to fight.


Except, A: it takes a particularly small and nasty mind to
*want* to be fighting any sort of war, and B: the conspiracy
fantasy version has absolutely nothing to do with reality.

Kim Jong-Il is not an Insane Supervillian. I know what the
TV says, and the blogosphere, but no.

And the recent Taepo-Dong launch, as near as anyone can tell,
was aimed in the direction vaguely known as "East". It didn't
get far enough for any outside observer to pin it down any
more precisely than that. A long-range missile launched due
east of Musudan-ri, would pass approximately 500 miles south
of Hawaii.

The same missile launched exactly 5.8 degrees North of due
East, might hit Hawaii. Or fly harmlessly over it, or fall
well short of it. Need to get the elevation and velocity
right as well, and we've even less clue there than we do
with the azimuth.

Mostly, though, "East of Musadan-ri" means a few million
square miles of empty ocean, which is exactly where people
trying to test a missile without hurting or threatening
anyone, would *want* to aim.

And, perhaps more importantly, anyone who wants to test,
not a missile, but a primitive satellite launch vehicle,
is going to want to launch exactly due East if they can.
The Taepo-Dong is pretty clearly a missile, but the last
time the North Koreans tested one, they pretended it was
a satellite launch vehicle, fired it due east, and didn't
come anywhere close to hitting Hawaii.

There's no reason to believe this wasn't more of the same.

So, no, Kim Jong-Il did not just try to nuke Pearl Harbor,
and we don't have to nuke North Korea. Don't have to, and
aren't going to, and it's not because anyone is covering
anything up.


--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

"John Schilling" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 9 Jul 2006 19:49:15 -0400, "jonathan" wrote:

During the two press conferences Bush gave just after
the missile launches, he was asked each time which
direction the long range missile was fired. Both
times he dodged the question and seemed rather
nervous about it. They must know, but clearly
don't want to talk about it.

Does anyone know? On CNN I heard someone pass
along a rumor that is was aimed at Hawaii. Is that
even possible?

Is Bush keeping a lid on a confrontational trajectory
that would tick off the public, and force a stronger
response?


No, he isn't. There are lots of people out peddling conspiracy
theories about how Kim Jong-Il is planning to nuke Hawaii or
Alaska as soon as he gets missiles working, and therefore if
Bush II had any sense we'd go nuke North Korea into oblivion
right now.


Your position defies logic. You are assuming it's just coincidence
that Kim fired the missile in the general direction of our
Pacific Fleet headquarters. Anyone that would starve his
population just to keep his sorry tail in power is as dangerous
as any cornered animal. So logic and caution would dictate
we assume the worst case...not...the best case as you have.




And I understand the appeal of that sort of thing. Especially
in contrast with the ongoing war in Iraq, this would be a most
righteous crusade against an Insane Supervillian(tm) plotting
Nefarious Evil(tm) with his Weapons of Mass Destruction(tm).
A war devoid of moral ambiguity, devoid of sympathetic innocent
bystanders (the North Korean people being rather media-invisible
these days), and perhaps most importantly a war devoid of any
possibility of American defeat or even significant American
casualties. At least in the conspiracy-fantasy version, this
would be almost as glorious as World War II, the war every
red-blooded American wants to fight.


Only an irrational mind would NOT consider N Korea
to be a threat to start a war. Especially while they are
lobbing missiles towards our base of military power
in the region. I imagine you consider the time they
launched, the Fourth of July, is another coincidence?
Not intended to send the US a clear message?

So it's logical to assume the trajectory was also designed
to send a confrontational message.




Except, A: it takes a particularly small and nasty mind to
*want* to be fighting any sort of war, and B: the conspiracy
fantasy version has absolutely nothing to do with reality.

Kim Jong-Il is not an Insane Supervillian. I know what the
TV says, and the blogosphere, but no.


He is a ruthless murdering dicatator that can only stay
alive as long as he remains in power. And his primary
political tool for remaining in power is to maintain
a confrontational relationship with the US.

In other words, the more threatened he feels remaining
in power at home, the more likely he is to start a war
with the US.





And the recent Taepo-Dong launch, as near as anyone can tell,
was aimed in the direction vaguely known as "East". It didn't
get far enough for any outside observer to pin it down any
more precisely than that. A long-range missile launched due
east of Musudan-ri, would pass approximately 500 miles south
of Hawaii.

The same missile launched exactly 5.8 degrees North of due
East, might hit Hawaii. Or fly harmlessly over it, or fall
well short of it. Need to get the elevation and velocity
right as well, and we've even less clue there than we do
with the azimuth.

Mostly, though, "East of Musadan-ri" means a few million
square miles of empty ocean, which is exactly where people
trying to test a missile without hurting or threatening
anyone, would *want* to aim.

And, perhaps more importantly, anyone who wants to test,
not a missile, but a primitive satellite launch vehicle,


And his nuclear program is for power plants to help his
starving people, right? Certainly, in your mind, there's
no relationship between his nuclear and missile programs
....right? Just another coincidence.

Maybe he wants to launch his own weather satellites
to save on the cost of an internet connection to the
weather service.



is going to want to launch exactly due East if they can.
The Taepo-Dong is pretty clearly a missile, but the last
time the North Koreans tested one, they pretended it was
a satellite launch vehicle, fired it due east, and didn't
come anywhere close to hitting Hawaii.

There's no reason to believe this wasn't more of the same.

So, no, Kim Jong-Il did not just try to nuke Pearl Harbor,
and we don't have to nuke North Korea. Don't have to, and
aren't going to, and it's not because anyone is covering
anything up.


Of course, I forgot, this administration is an example for
openness and transparancy wrt national security.
Bush wouldn't consider keeping anything secret from
the American people.

Note, the above sentence is sarcasm.


s











--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *