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#1
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Well, will they be allowed to fly the Shuttle now, after one got killed?
I personally feel that the agency is running so scared of an accident at the moment that it will be a wonder if they let pigs fly.... Brian -- Brian Gaff.... graphics are great, but the blind can't hear them Email: __________________________________________________ __________________________ __________________________________ --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free, so there! Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.561 / Virus Database: 353 - Release Date: 13/01/04 |
#2
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"Brian Gaff" wrote:
Well, will they be allowed to fly the Shuttle now, after one got killed? By that flawed rationale, Brian... *no one* would fly on the Shuttle now. I personally feel that the agency is running so scared of an accident at the moment that it will be a wonder if they let pigs fly.... Your paranoia level is a bit high today, isn't it? What's with the doom-and-gloom? You're sounding like Bob. Roger -- Roger Balettie former Flight Dynamics Officer Space Shuttle Mission Control http://www.balettie.com/ |
#3
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"Brian Gaff" wrote in
: Well, will they be allowed to fly the Shuttle now, after one got killed? NASA will certainly allow them. Soichi Noguchi of Japan is still assigned to STS-114, as is Christer Fuglesang of ESA on STS-116. Steve MacLean and David Williams of Canada are assigned to STS-115 and 118, respectively. STS-121 and 116 are slated to be ISS crew rotation flights, so there will be Russians aboard. If any foreign astronauts are forbidden to fly on the shuttle, it will be by their home agencies, not by NASA. JAXA has made noises about independently evaluating NASA's safety improvements before they let Noguchi fly, but so far all indications are that they will. -- JRF Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail, check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and think one step ahead of IBM. |
#4
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I may be paranoid, but surely, cancelling the Hubble service mission even
before anyone has tried or tested any repair ideas for rcc panels, and considering that by the law of averages, the mission is probably going to have a better chance of success than the first Apollo had, is kind of counter intuitive. As has been noted here before, these people volunteer, and they know the risks, even more so now that the complacency of, long tried=safe has been pulled back to reveal what should be obvious, namely, that space travel is risky, and you cannot afford to take anything for granted of stick your head in the sand. So, go for it, I say, make the Hubble a better instrument if you have the technology to do so. Make sure it does not hit anything when it comes back after you have done all you can with it. It should be a public imperative to do that. Brian table thumping mode -- Brian Gaff.... graphics are great, but the blind can't hear them Email: __________________________________________________ __________________________ __________________________________ --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free, so there! Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.561 / Virus Database: 353 - Release Date: 13/01/04 |
#5
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![]() I may be paranoid, but surely, cancelling the Hubble service mission even before anyone has tried or tested any repair ideas for rcc panels, and considering that by the law of averages, the mission is probably going to have a better chance of success than the first Apollo had, is kind of counter intuitive. To put things in perspective for a moment in the shuttle program there have been 26 flights that have gone to a space station (and I'm counting the STS 63 Mir flyby). That's 26 out of 111 missions where the crew went up and came home safely. That's less than 25% of the shuttle flights by my math. Hell, Discovery which has racked up 30 missions only has 6 space station missions. Only Atlantis will have more station missions flown that solo-Earth orbit flights, if it is indeed the shuttle that ends up flying STS 114. And here we are terrified of flying one more non-station mission... -A.L. |
#6
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![]() "MasterShrink" wrote in message ... I may be paranoid, but surely, cancelling the Hubble service mission even before anyone has tried or tested any repair ideas for rcc panels, and considering that by the law of averages, the mission is probably going to have a better chance of success than the first Apollo had, is kind of counter intuitive. To put things in perspective for a moment in the shuttle program there have been 26 flights that have gone to a space station (and I'm counting the STS 63 Mir flyby). That's 26 out of 111 missions where the crew went up and came home safely. That's less than 25% of the shuttle flights by my math. Hell, Discovery which has racked up 30 missions only has 6 space station missions. Only Atlantis will have more station missions flown that solo-Earth orbit flights, if it is indeed the shuttle that ends up flying STS 114. And here we are terrified of flying one more non-station mission... Because we were wrong about non-station missions. It's like flying a plane with a bomb on board that goes off 1 in every 50 flights when you land. But if you rendezvous with a special plane in the air, the bomb can be defused. After 100 flights, we discover this, so we decide from now on we'll fly only when we can rendezvous with that plane. And you're complaining, "Hey, you flew most of those flights without that other plane, why are you afraid now? The bomb probably won't go off!" Bruce |
#7
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![]() And here we are terrified of flying one more non-station mission... -A.L. Its a excuse to kill hubble. The botom line, the money saved helps keep ISS sghuttl;e going. Nasa p[riorties are really screwed up ![]() |
#8
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![]() "Bruce Sterling Woodcock" wrote in message om... "MasterShrink" wrote in message ... And here we are terrified of flying one more non-station mission... Because we were wrong about non-station missions. It's like flying a plane with a bomb on board that goes off 1 in every 50 flights when you land. But if you rendezvous with a special plane in the air, the bomb can be defused. After 100 flights, we discover this, so we decide from now on we'll fly only when we can rendezvous with that plane. As usual, it's more complex than that. A space station mission still has to survive launch and on-orbit operations - both of those carry substantial risk, together they are in the same ballpark of risk as reentry. Flying to the ISS isn't going to eliminate those risks. And still, no inspection technique available at the ISS is going to be completely reliable at detecting potential TPS-related risks for reentry. With the changes to the ET foam, there is a much smaller risk of there being any damage to the TPS during launch. That particular "1 in 50 bomb" has been largely eliminated. (BTW, where'd you get 1 in 50 from? There was 1 total loss and several cases of more minor damage from 112 reentry attempts.) By focussing too narrowly on one particular loss scenario, you risk losing sight of many other risks. The causes of the loss of STS-107 are being addressed. We need to ensure that there are no other problems ready to bite once we've fixed this set. And you're complaining, "Hey, you flew most of those flights without that other plane, why are you afraid now? The bomb probably won't go off!" We have removed that particular bomb (we think...). Unfortunately, there may be other bombs on board that we don't know about, and that we can't fix with that other plane. --Chris |
#9
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![]() "Chris Bennetts" wrote in message ... "Bruce Sterling Woodcock" wrote in message om... "MasterShrink" wrote in message ... And here we are terrified of flying one more non-station mission... Because we were wrong about non-station missions. It's like flying a plane with a bomb on board that goes off 1 in every 50 flights when you land. But if you rendezvous with a special plane in the air, the bomb can be defused. After 100 flights, we discover this, so we decide from now on we'll fly only when we can rendezvous with that plane. As usual, it's more complex than that. As usual, that's true of all analogies. Your argument is dead out of the gate. Of course it's not EXACTLY that... I said it is LIKE that, to explain it to someone who didn't quite seem to get it. A space station mission still has to survive launch and on-orbit operations - both of those carry substantial risk, together they are in the same ballpark of risk as reentry. Flying to the ISS isn't going to eliminate those risks. And still, no inspection technique available at the ISS is going to be completely reliable at detecting potential TPS-related risks for reentry. That's a different bomb completely. I'm only talking about the one we know about, and the one we know how to fix, at least for ISS flights. With the changes to the ET foam, there is a much smaller risk of there being any damage to the TPS during launch. That particular "1 in 50 bomb" has been largely eliminated. (BTW, where'd you get 1 in 50 from? There was 1 total loss and several cases of more minor damage from 112 reentry attempts.) You have no empirical data that shows the risk of TPS damage is smaller during launch now. None. Zero, zip, nada, zilch. Secondly, 1 in 50 is LIKE. Get it? It's not the exact figure. It doesn't matter what the exact figure is for the purpose of the analogy. Get it? By focussing too narrowly on one particular loss scenario, you risk losing sight of many other risks. The causes of the loss of STS-107 are being addressed. We need to ensure that there are no other problems ready to bite once we've fixed this set. I'm not losing sight of them at all. There are many other bombs on the plane that might go off. That doesn't mean then that you shouldn't rendezvous with the ISS to get rid of one, since there might be others. And you're complaining, "Hey, you flew most of those flights without that other plane, why are you afraid now? The bomb probably won't go off!" We have removed that particular bomb (we think...). Unfortunately, there may be other bombs on board that we don't know about, and that we can't fix with that other plane. Which is no justification for not using the other plane to remove said bomb. Which is counter to the previous poster's point. Bruce |
#10
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![]() "Bruce Sterling Woodcock" wrote in message m... "Chris Bennetts" wrote in message ... With the changes to the ET foam, there is a much smaller risk of there being any damage to the TPS during launch. That particular "1 in 50 bomb" has been largely eliminated. (BTW, where'd you get 1 in 50 from? There was 1 total loss and several cases of more minor damage from 112 reentry attempts.) You have no empirical data that shows the risk of TPS damage is smaller during launch now. None. Zero, zip, nada, zilch. Correct - I don't. However, the changes to the ET foam - particularly around the bipod area, the probable source of the foam that caused the loss of Columbia - appear to reduce the chances of foam falling during launch and damaging the orbiter's TPS. So I do consider the particular "bomb" that caused the loss of Columbia to be a substantially smaller threat from now on. We'll still need to keep a close eye on it, of course. Secondly, 1 in 50 is LIKE. Get it? It's not the exact figure. It doesn't matter what the exact figure is for the purpose of the analogy. Get it? Yes, point taken. --Chris |
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