Space Access Update #108 1/31/05

Space Access Update #108 01/31/05
Copyright 2004 by Space Access Society
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Contents this issue:

- Space Access '05 Conference Set For Phoenix AZ April 28-30 2005

- New Administration Space Transportation Policy

- Who Will Run NASA?


Coming soon:

- What A Difference A Year Makes: Industry Roundup
- Space Access '05 Preliminary Speakers List

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Space Access '05 Conference, April 28-30, Phoenix Arizona

We've gotten a number of queries as to whether our conference is
happening this year, if so when, where's the hotel, and so forth. We're
actually pretty close to our usual just-in-time pace on pinning down and
publicizing these things, but to reassure y'all (and let you start to
make travel plans) here's where we stand right now, three months out:

We've narrowed our list of a dozen possible hotels down to a primary and
an alternate, and our hotel liaison is currently working out a contract
with the primary. Both primary and alternate are newer hotels than last
year's, at about the same room rate - both have, in response to numerous
requests, high-speed internet - and both have the space we need open for
our dates (as do several tertiary backups) so we can guarantee the
conference will take place starting 2 pm Thursday April 28th, running
through Saturday night April 30th, within a moderate cab or shuttle-van
ride of the Phoenix airport. Both hotels are great sites - the primary
has a wide variety of nearby places to eat drink and shop, the alternate
is a really nice self-contained resort, and either would work well for
our conference. We expect we'll have a contract signed in the next week
or so, at which point we'll publish the hotel details.

Take a look at http://www.space-access.org/updates/sa04prgb.doc for our
2004 conference program book to give you an idea what sort of conference
we put together just-in-time last year. This year's conference will be
broadly similar, modulo a year's rapid progress in the field of
radically cheaper space transportation.

Space Access '05 conference registration remains at $100 in advance,
$120 at the door, mail checks to (note new address!)

Space Access '05
5515 N 7th st #5-348
Phoenix AZ 85014

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New Administration Space Transportation Policy


The President signed off on a new national space transportation policy
at the end of last year, and there's a lot to like in it. (Summary at
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=15010) It formally gets
rid of the mid-nineties division of labor that gave NASA a monopoly on
reusable rocket development (which NASA proceeded to expensively botch)
while confining DOD to expendables; each now can develop to meet its own
space transport needs. It also mandates NASA develop new capabilities
only where its needs can't be met by capabilities already in use in the
defense or commercial sectors. It acknowledges the importance of the US
commercial space transportation sector in general, mandates a supportive
government-purchase, regulatory and launch-range environment for the
commercial sector, and specifically supports commercial human
spaceflight efforts. It says the US government "must provide sufficient
and stable funding for acquisition of US space transportation
capabilities in order to create a climate in which a robust space
transportation industrial and technology base can flourish", and cites
fundamental transformation of capabilities and capitalizing on the
entrepreneurial spirit of the US private sector in that context, which
implies that at least some share of the funding should go to the
innovative startups.

Have we died and gone to heaven? Well, no, not exactly. The policy
necessarily spends considerable time dealing with various aspects of
the legacy space establishment - keep both EELV's until further notice,
return Shuttle to flight then retire it when Station is complete, and so
forth. And it mandates a massive DOD/NASA/industry central-planning
exercise for "next-generation space transportation capabilities" that we
suspect has far too good a chance of turning about as many billions into
as many viewgraphs over as many years as most previous such efforts.

But this policy allows for and by implication encourages a lot of
smaller efforts, defense and commercial, outside the old-space megalith
project complex. Mammals scurrying around under the dinosaurs' feet, if
you will. And it does tell the dinosaurs NOT to go out of their way to
step on the new arrivals, though absent ongoing adult supervision from
the top political levels we wouldn't bet the mortgage on that being
scrupulously observed.

Ultimately, any such policy depends more on continuing top-level
political support for its effectiveness than it does on the finicky
details of this paragraph or that subclause. Recent history gives us
some cause for optimism here - we'd estimate that the amount of
government space funding (out of thirty billion or more overall)
actually going in what we regard as the right general direction to
produce a space transportation revolution has risen to a decent fraction
of 1%. That doesn't sound like much - but the whole point of our
revolution is that it doesn't cost much, done right.

Give us a full 1% for reusable rocket R&D and we'll change the world -
and under this Administration and this policy, we might just get that 1%.

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Who Will Run NASA?

It is no denigration of Sean O'Keefe to say that he leaves NASA still
short of being a useful and efficient government space exploration
agency. Given how wilfully dysfunctional major parts of the
organization were a few years ago, the fact that all of the agency's
centers now have some handle on what they're spending and pay some
attention to what NASA HQ tells them is a triumph. We thank Mr. O'Keefe
for the considerable progress, and we wish him well in his new job.

But the major strides NASA has made in accounting and accountability
are, we believe, only a start. If the agency is indeed to take the lead
in resuming outward human space exploration progress without radical
budget increase, it is going to have to undergo radical transformation.
Much of what it does now will have to be shut down to free up the needed
resources. More vitally, much of HOW it does things now will have to be
set aside. Much accreted bureaucracy from the last thirty years has to
go, organizationally AND conceptually.

We will not presume to tell the White House who they should pick to
succeed O'Keefe. Indeed, this close to his departure, we suspect they
may well have already made up their mind. But we will, on the off
chance someone might be listening, say a few things about what sort of
person we think should take over at NASA.

He should have a thick skin. He'll be making painful changes and he's
going to take considerable flack. (For the same reasons, he should also
have the confidence and ongoing support of the White House. Strong
Congressional support, away from existing NASA centers, wouldn't hurt
either.)

He should be well-grounded (or at least extremely and independently
well-advised) in space technology. He'll be making important technical
decisions, and the old NASA bureaucracy has a long history of trying to
stack the deck in their advice on such.

He should probably not be from within NASA. The old-line NASA
bureaucracy demonstrably has a number of pernicious technological and
organizational prejudices; the average career NASA person will tend to
have internalized far too much of this baggage.

He should be bureaucratically astute (or at least extremely well-
advised). His main job will be not so much conducting future human
space exploration, but rather finishing the transformation of NASA into
an organization capable of conducting that future exploration.

That is still a long shot at this point. We'd be satisfied if NASA ends
up merely getting out of the way of the radically cheaper space
transportation revolution we push for. But if NASA can actually be
rehabilitated to the point where it recommences useful outward expansion
of the human frontier later this decade, we wouldn't mind at all.

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in the cost of reaching space. You may redistribute this Update in
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Space Access Society
http://www.space-access.org


"Reach low orbit and you're halfway to anywhere in the Solar System"
- Robert A. Heinlein