Predictions: 2005

Here are some space related predictions for the year 2005.

The return to flight of the space shuttle will proceed on schedule and
without a hitch. By the end of the year, there will be a myriad of
stories in the media along the lines of "is NASA getting
complacent?"

The flight of the Shenzhou 6 will be a success, leading to rumors of
further Chinese space exploits.

The new NASA Administrator will be a former military officer,

At least one of the companies selected to build the CEV prototype will
be one of the new, entrepreneurial companies (Scaled Composites?)

Russia will threaten to pull out of the ISS coalition and join with the
Chinese. This will be (partly) a ploy to extract more money from the
West.

A fourth country will announce a serious, independent human in space
program.

President Bush will make a "Rice University" style speech
supporting his Moon, Mars, and Beyond Vision-possibly at Rice
University. The speech will include economic justifications. Probes to
be launched to the Moon in the 2011-15 time frame to test certain
commercial applications (lunar mining, solar power, etc) will be
announced.

One or more of the losers in the X Prize race will nevertheless fly a
sub orbital vehicle.

NASA's budget request will fare better than most next year and will
pass, after a lot of noise and confusion, pretty much intact.

Cassini will not discover a monolith floating in Saturn space.

There will be three crew members on board ISS by the end of next year.
Also, one or more private companies will be signed to develop alternate
resupply capabilities.

At least one well know player will quietly join Bigelow's race for
the orbital prize.

Serenity, the space opera movie by the creator of Buffy the Vampire
Slayer, will be a massive hit, leading to rumors that it will be
developed as a TV series.

Mark R. Whittington wrote:

Serenity, the space opera movie by the creator of Buffy the
Vampire Slayer, will be a massive hit, leading to rumors that
it will be developed as a TV series.

I was under the impression that the movie was based on the
(unfortunately) unsuccessful TV series, "Firefly".

Jim Davis

"Mark R. Whittington" wrote in message
ups.com...
Here are some space related predictions for the year 2005.

The return to flight of the space shuttle will proceed on schedule and
without a hitch. By the end of the year, there will be a myriad of
stories in the media along the lines of "is NASA getting
complacent?"


I think it'll take until the end of 2006.

But I'll add one:

Manned servicing of Hubble will be back on the table and planning will move
forward.


The flight of the Shenzhou 6 will be a success, leading to rumors of
further Chinese space exploits.


Not a tough on here...

The new NASA Administrator will be a former military officer,

At least one of the companies selected to build the CEV prototype will
be one of the new, entrepreneurial companies (Scaled Composites?)


Doubtful.

Russia will threaten to pull out of the ISS coalition and join with the
Chinese. This will be (partly) a ploy to extract more money from the
West.

Yeah, I can see this.



A fourth country will announce a serious, independent human in space
program.


India perhaps?


President Bush will make a "Rice University" style speech
supporting his Moon, Mars, and Beyond Vision-possibly at Rice
University. The speech will include economic justifications. Probes to
be launched to the Moon in the 2011-15 time frame to test certain
commercial applications (lunar mining, solar power, etc) will be
announced.

Highly doubt it.



One or more of the losers in the X Prize race will nevertheless fly a
sub orbital vehicle.


I'll say "attempt". Not sure how successful it will be.


NASA's budget request will fare better than most next year and will
pass, after a lot of noise and confusion, pretty much intact.

Cassini will not discover a monolith floating in Saturn space.


Darn.


There will be three crew members on board ISS by the end of next year.
Also, one or more private companies will be signed to develop alternate
resupply capabilities.


Ayup. I think this is pretty likely.

At least one well know player will quietly join Bigelow's race for
the orbital prize.

Serenity, the space opera movie by the creator of Buffy the Vampire
Slayer, will be a massive hit, leading to rumors that it will be
developed as a TV series.


Won't even go there.

Jim Davis wrote:
Mark R. Whittington wrote:

Serenity, the space opera movie by the creator of Buffy the
Vampire Slayer, will be a massive hit, leading to rumors that
it will be developed as a TV series.

I was under the impression that the movie was based on the
(unfortunately) unsuccessful TV series, "Firefly".

Jim Davis

Yes indeed. And hence my attempt at a little irony (g).

Mark R. Whittington wrote:

Yes indeed. And hence my attempt at a little irony (g).

Next time hit me with a 2 x 4. :-)

Jim Davis

Mark R. Whittington wrote:

snipped interesting predictions



Russia will threaten to pull out of the ISS coalition and join with
the
Chinese. This will be (partly) a ploy to extract more money from the
West.


They may pull out but it wont be because of Money. Russia in recent
times is awash with Cash, mainly from Oil. The realignment of some of
the Russian Oil industries puts alot of that cash within reach of the
government. A recent business article called Russia the new Saudi
Arabia and they arent far off going on some of their activities.

My prediction would be that given they are no longer cash poor they
will ask the American side to fund full commercial value for things
related to ISS, especially those things the US has been given on the
cheap or for free. If the US wont pay, Russia will pull out.

Of course that begs the question what happens to ISS given its russian
core.

In re the fourth national-state to have an independent Space Program, Mark,
India has been nominated.

That prediction has been upstaged by our fraters in the Popular Science
magazine; they are of the opinion that Hindi will be the first language of
interplanetary exploration and/or Space Colonization.

Hmmmm.

--
Leonard C Robinson
"On strange worlds beneath strange suns,
Time and the Gods are preparing for Man the sites of cities yet to be."
(Sir Arthur Charles, Lord Clarke of Serendip)