National Cloud Day

Metcheck are currently forecasting 63% cloud cover for June 8th for
West Sussex

http://www.metcheck.com/index.asp

Thankfully, NCD is still a long way off in weather terms. How many of
you are heading down my way I wonder ;-) ?

So - it's currently a 63% chance of success for NCD and a 37% chance
of success for the Transit.

--
Pete Lawrence
http://www.pbl33.co.uk
Most recent images http://www.pbl33.fast24.co.uk/recent_images.html

Those odds are worse than for the eclipse of 1999.

Fingers crossed for all.

Kevin

Probably heading to a sand storm.

So - it's currently a 63% chance of success for NCD and a 37% chance
of success for the Transit.

--
Pete Lawrence
http://www.pbl33.co.uk
Most recent images http://www.pbl33.fast24.co.uk/recent_images.html

On Thu, 27 May 2004 10:39:38 +0000 (UTC), "Kevin Smith"
wrote:

So - it's currently a 63% chance of success for NCD and a 37% chance
of success for the Transit.

Those odds are worse than for the eclipse of 1999.

Fingers crossed for all.

Kevin

Probably heading to a sand storm.

Why - are you heading overseas?

--
Pete Lawrence
http://www.pbl33.co.uk
Most recent images http://www.pbl33.fast24.co.uk/recent_images.html

In message , Pete Lawrence
writes
Metcheck are currently forecasting 63% cloud cover for June 8th for
West Sussex

http://www.metcheck.com/index.asp

Thankfully, NCD is still a long way off in weather terms. How many of
you are heading down my way I wonder ;-) ?

So - it's currently a 63% chance of success for NCD and a 37% chance
of success for the Transit.

There is also a thread on uk.sci.weather that may be of interest.

Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: Forecast discussion (UPDATE MAY27): Venus transit 2004
Jun 08
Message-ID: 12itc.23$0e2.17@newsfe4-gui


They agree serious risk of cloud, but with enough breaks that there
should be a good chance for everyone to get a glimpse of the event.
However, the forecasts made from this far out are notoriously
inaccurate.

Regards,
--
Martin Brown

"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
...
Metcheck are currently forecasting 63% cloud cover for June 8th for
West Sussex

http://www.metcheck.com/index.asp

Thankfully, NCD is still a long way off in weather terms. How many of
you are heading down my way I wonder ;-) ?

So - it's currently a 63% chance of success for NCD and a 37% chance
of success for the Transit.

--
Pete Lawrence
http://www.pbl33.co.uk
Most recent images http://www.pbl33.fast24.co.uk/recent_images.html

85% for me (

Tony

On Thu, 27 May 2004 14:06:46 +0100, Martin Brown
wrote:

There is also a thread on uk.sci.weather that may be of interest.

Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: Forecast discussion (UPDATE MAY27): Venus transit 2004
Jun 08
Message-ID: 12itc.23$0e2.17@newsfe4-gui


They agree serious risk of cloud, but with enough breaks that there
should be a good chance for everyone to get a glimpse of the event.
However, the forecasts made from this far out are notoriously
inaccurate.

Yes - it may also be encouraging to note that I've often noted the
8-14 day forecast on Metcheck saying cloud, cloud and more cloud and
then finding out that the physical reality was nothing as bad as
predicted.

--
Pete Lawrence
http://www.pbl33.co.uk
Most recent images http://www.pbl33.fast24.co.uk/recent_images.html

"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 27 May 2004 14:06:46 +0100, Martin Brown
wrote:

There is also a thread on uk.sci.weather that may be of interest.

Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: Forecast discussion (UPDATE MAY27): Venus transit
2004
Jun 08
Message-ID: 12itc.23$0e2.17@newsfe4-gui


.... I'm going to cross-post the thread into this ng sometime early next
week - either Monday or Tuesday, by which time I hope the models have
settled somewhat. I agree other comments that *most* should see at least
*something* of this event first-hand - the trick is trying to suggest
those who will see the lengthiest period of view.

Martin.

--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

On Fri, 28 May 2004 07:41:49 +0100, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:


"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 27 May 2004 14:06:46 +0100, Martin Brown
wrote:

There is also a thread on uk.sci.weather that may be of interest.

Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Subject: Forecast discussion (UPDATE MAY27): Venus transit
2004
Jun 08
Message-ID: 12itc.23$0e2.17@newsfe4-gui


... I'm going to cross-post the thread into this ng sometime early next
week - either Monday or Tuesday, by which time I hope the models have
settled somewhat. I agree other comments that *most* should see at least
*something* of this event first-hand - the trick is trying to suggest
those who will see the lengthiest period of view.

Thanks Martin (not another Martin - sorry uk.s.a is overrun with them
;-)! ).

I think people would be interested to know what the chances are that
they will be able to see something of this event.

Not knowing a great dal about weather modelling, how representative
are the current results? Do they give a picture that is essentially
correct but awaiting the fine detail or is there considerable room for
variation at this distance out?

--
Pete Lawrence
http://www.pbl33.co.uk
Most recent images http://www.pbl33.fast24.co.uk/recent_images.html

"Pete Lawrence" wrote in message
...

I think people would be interested to know what the chances are that
they will be able to see something of this event.

Not knowing a great dal about weather modelling, how representative
are the current results? Do they give a picture that is essentially
correct but awaiting the fine detail or is there considerable room for
variation at this distance out?


*considerable* variation at this lead time ... which is one reason I
have not bothered to cross-post at this time. Even 3 or 4 days out (with
the situation that is developing), we are going to have problems. As
someone said in uk.sci.weather, even if the forecast *looks*
disappointing, I would plan for a sighting at least _sometime_ during
the expected event. We are going to be mighty unlucky to see nothing at
all for the full 6-odd hours!

Martin. (Rowley)


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

Here, as promised, a summary of thoughts on cloudiness on 8th June ...
we've been running this over in uk.sci.weather for a week, and the
models are all over the place! They still haven't really settled down
.... not a surprise really ... so treat the text below as a 'without
guarantee' stab at things: I suspect that even next Sunday, we're going
to be struggling with this one given the climatology at this time of
year:-

Forecast discussion: Venus transit 2004 Jun 08


2004 Jun 01: D-07: GFS EC GME (JMA n/a)
Synoptic:
GFS: Low ... (slow-moving) SW of area Shannon. High ... Norwegian Sea.
High ... northern North Sea, with ridge extending across NW Germany,
intensifying. Trough ... N.Biscay/Brittany - SW Ireland early, moving
NE, lying Cotentin peninsula - SW Wales - central Ireland by midday/8th.

EC (yesterday's 12Z): Low ... south of Iceland. Low ... (thundery?)
Biscay. High ... Heligoland Bight into Germany. Frontal trough ... SW
England - West Wales - Forth.

GME: Low ... SE Biscay. Low ... (complex) SSW of Iceland. High ... just
east of Scotland. Trough ... N/S Denmark/South Norway.

Run-to-run evolution: all deterministic runs show relatively high
pressure North Sea, Low Countries, NW Germany & NE France. GFS/EC show
the idea (as the GFS yesterday) of some sort of 'plumey' development
Biscay to NW France - across SW Britain, extending NE'wards. (NB: some
of our earlier runs also indicated such). These runs all tend to support
a rather 'blocked' pattern, with HP the dominant theme NW mainland
Europe, but tendency to slightly more mobility towards the
westnorthwest. (Have just seen the 06Z GFS run and this doesn't develop
the plume so much from / across the SW!)

Inference: main areas at high prob (80%) of extensive & persistent
cloud cover based on these output would appear to be: Brittany, all SW
England, much of Wales (though with a fine start), and perhaps into CS
England, the Midlands and parts of southern Ireland. All other areas
should have a 60% of sighting, *at some time*, though with a slack flow
and moist low level air, some cloudy infill is indicated for
central-northern France and SE England, with medium-level unstable cloud
also likely to be a factor. Also, low cloud may be a problem for east/NE
England and E/SE Scotland with a flow off the North Sea. Some far NW
parts of both Ireland & Scotland may also have large amounts of cloud.






WARNING: THIS IS *NOT* A NAKED-EYE EVENT! TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.

For more details see:-
http://www.transitofvenus2004.org.uk/
and more generally:-
http://www.britastro.org/main/



--
Martin Rowley
meteorology @ bracknell
E:
W: http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/metindex.htm