The problem with the Drake Equation.

http://www.glyphweb.com/esky/default...eequation.html


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Consequences of the Equation

Drake's Equation is an ingenious and powerful tool. Nobody can say
how accurate it is at reaching a result, but that isn't the true
measure of its value. Its importance is that it forces us to think
about the problem of extraterrestrial civilizations in a structured
and concrete way. Some of the conclusions it suggests might seem
bizarre and counter-intuitive, but this is a topic beyond any human's
experience, where intutition is not a useful guideline.

The question of extraterrestrial intelligence is one without certain
answers - anything and everything on this page might be wrong. The
equation brings us close to certainty on one point, though: we can
be confident that Earth is not the only living planet. Even assuming
pessimistic values for the equation's factors, it still gives us
thousands of civilizations in our Galaxy alone, and perhaps millions
of other living worlds.


Anyone see it?

"The equation brings us close to certainty on one point, though: we can
be confident that Earth is not the only living planet."

This is the problem. The Drake Equation does nothing of the kind. The certainty
of any result you pull out of the Drake Equation is exactly zero. Any number
you get out is as good as any other number, all are pure (not educated) guesses.

The Drake equation promotes sloppy thinking instead of intelligent thinking, it
promotes unsound conclusions and gives them the mantle of science.

The Drake equation is an exercise in speculation, it does not and cannot
create certainty.

The value of SETI@home is that it actually generates data, it is not purely
speculative. The problem with the Drake equation is that many think it somehow
makes ET life a certainty in the galaxy. Whether there is ET life in the
galaxy or not, it will not be because of the Drake Equation, but in spite of
it.


Rich