is there a "base" on the moon?

Look. I just love to make people queasy thinking about these things.

So I have to ask. Is there "any" evidence (apart from unverified
statements from various astronauts that may have been on the moon on a
"quick scoop and return" missing), "any" evidence that there may be a
base on the moon operated by person or persons on non-persons unknown?

We have to assume if there is a base on the moon it may suggest access
to better tech than a Space-X rocket so we might question how likely
it is there would be any trouble for people up there to fly between
the moon and Earth. But there might be an ever ever so slight
variation depending on the distance between the 2 bodies. Maybe when
the back side of the moon is facing the sun 24/7 it might be slightly
more attractive to come down to Earth.

But it must -- surely -- be a tiny tiny effect even if it is there.

But we have to check. We are all scientists and engineers after all,
and it doesn't exist if it hasn't been measured. Right?

So I will take the list of UFO sightings at the NUFORC and check if
there is any interesting periodic structure to the data.

First off we have to make an adjustment to allow for the NUFORC
switching to a web report form in March 2006. Before that numbers
seemed to be much smaller than after the web report went live. A
statistical procedure finds if we multiply sightings numbers before Apr
2006 by 9.8 we can allow for that change.

Next we find there is a 7-day cycle in UFO sightings. It seems more
UFO's are spotted on Sats than any other day of the week. (At
least with the NUFORC data; I didn't check any other databases). In
fact, the probability of seeing a UFO on a given day seems to rise
from Mon (minimum prob) through to Sat (max). Sun sees a
decrease in prob before returning to Mon minimum.

The table for the 7-day structure is thus:

DOW Adj factor
0 1.50547 Mon
1 1.4569 Tue
2 1.37849 ...
3 1.35947
4 1.27042
5 1 Sat
6 1.28463 Sun

The "adj factor" is the number I will use to adjust the number of
UFO's reported on a certain day in an attempt to remove the 7d
periodicity from the data. Since Mon is the least likely day to
report a UFO we'll multiply any count on a Money by 1.505... to allow
for the apparent fact people going back to work on a Money do not tend
to be looking up in the sky. OTOH on Sat we'll use "1" as the
factor (i.e. no adjustment) because people are apparently at their
most alert on Sat.

I will not attempt to allow for the hangover from Fri night partying.

We will then assume, in turn, there is a periodicity of 20, 21,
.... 35 days in the data and check the root mean square error of the
(adjusted) UFO daily sighting counts from the average for the relevant
day of the period.

We then print out the RMSE for each period and see whether there is
any dip in the RMSE (better fit) at any period we might a priori
suspect might be linked with the moon.

Let's look:

Period RMSE
25 23.1191
26 23.1059
27 23.113
28 23.0913 -- BOING! Smallest RMSE.
29 23.1092
30 23.111
31 23.1068
32 23.1118
33 23.11
34 23.1115
35 23.092 -- 2nd smallest RMSE

Incredibly, there is a periodicity of 28 days in the UFO sighting data
even after trying to nullify the 7d weekday period.

The dip at 28 days is very certain even if small. I've used several
different methods and all show up the same pattern. 28 days is the
minimum RMSE with days either side being larger. We might even suspect
29 days is slightly closer to the true value of the period than 27
days given the RMSE for the former is smaller than the latter.

We know the period of the moon is around 28 days and our procedure has
unambiguously pointed at it popping up inside the UFO sighting data.

It points at UFO sightings being slightly more likely at certain times
during the lunar cycle and supports an hypothesis that a trip between
the moon and Earth by said object being slightly more likely then. At
this point we have not identified whether the "most likely" sightings
happen at full moon, new moon or someplace in between. We are not sure
the "easier" trip happens when the Earth and moon are closest,
furthest or somewhere in between. Or whether the back of the moon is
in full daylight or full dark, or somewhere in between when these
"most likely" trips tend to happen.

But it is "some" evidence there may be a base of some kind somewhere
on the moon and some of these UFO's are coming from there.

Of course we also presume from other data most of them come from
somewhere in the Siberian Arctic and Antarctic, most likely from under
the ocean. That what the "trans medium" stuff in the latest Pentagon
leakage is all about.

At some point I'll try to write a more exacting program to calculate
whether the "28 day" period is more likely the sidereal (27.3) or
synodic period (29.5) of the moon. On the evidence here is seem the
synodic period is the more likely one to be found. I have some s/w
I've discussed elsewhere that tries to model interplanetary flights
that match UFO sightings against the positions of (mostly) the outer
planets. From these some "flight characteristics" have been roughly
deduced. It would require some adapting but could also try to fit
likely routes (e.g. a low energy curve assuming you have some kind of
antigravity drive) between the front or back of the moon and the Earth
and see which show up as more likely.

Since we don't seem to see any big domes on the moon looking up there
with out backyard telescopes, we might expect to find the back of the
moon to show up as the more likely location of the starting point.

--
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