do ufo's come from mars?

Given there is now official interest in UFO's and Congress has ordered
a report within 180 days in the light of continued ructions from the
"tic tac"/Nimitz incident in 2004, let's use out data science know-how
to decide whether there is simple evidence that UFO's *may* be
travelling between Earth and Mars.

A recent interview with a former Israeli intel chief saw him suggest
that UFO's were run by space aliens that had a federation and they had
a base on Mars that even featured one or more human astronauts.

This may appear ridiculous. But real science is able to analyze
questions based on data rather than "gut feeling" aka prejudice.

It's a great pity scientific research still clings to the logic of
geometry and tends to presume things that cant be proven, even if
there is some evidence for them, are "false".

In probability theory, and some areas of data science, if there are
choices for which there is poor or zero evidence it has to be presumed
each choice has equal probability. Are UFO's from Mars? If you know
nothing then you should assume probability they are is 50% rather than
"no".

So let us proceed to see what the data says.

I'll draw my "UFO" data from the online data from the NUFORC since
2006. The year is significant because the organisation launched a web
report form then. Previously it had been telephone reports and/or
field investigators. The obvious feature you can "see" in the data is
before 2006 there were only around 1/10 the monthly reports there have
been after 2006. By some estimates UFO reports from ~1930 to ~2000
were 90% mistakes, hoaxes, or something other "everyday". It seems to
analysis of post 2006 data and NUFORC only around 1% of current
reports are something other than Starlink or a drone dragging a bunch
of Xmas lights at 30,000 ft.

I'll draw my "mars" data from a simple simulation of the relevant
orbits. If it is the case that the distance to Mars has "something to
do with" the number of UFO sightings reported to NUFORC (mostly from
the US, but also from Canada and some from further afield) there should
be some significant statistical correlation.

I'll also add another hurdle for the model to pass. It must also
predict a particularly close approach from the Red Planet that
happened last year. If we find a significant corr AND ALSO there is a
small distance in mid 2020 then we must have found *something*.
Although it is hard to say exactly what.

As a note: by similar means you might also find that UFO's are closely
associated with each polar region, esp Antarctica and the Ant
Penn. Their sightings in the N and S hem also seem to follow the
complex pattern of plankton blooming much more closely than expected
by chance alone. Plankton has a complex pattern with 3 blooms in each
hem per year. The major bloom happens in midyear with smaller peaks
either side. The S and N hem pattern are offset by a few months. It
seems unlikely some phenomenon will flip flop back and forth in
reasonable synchronization with these cycles and not be connection
with them in some way.

Anyway. Here's the "best" model a little program comes up with:

y = -78.4246*log(x) + 488.67
beta in -78.4246 +- 39.7396 90% CI
alpha in 488.67 +- 25.2738
T-tests on beta:
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000
calculated t = -3.26452 at 164 d.f.
|t| tc (1.65421 2-sided); reject H0
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta 0.000000
t tc (-1.28673 left tail); reject H0
Probabilities:
P(beta!=0.000000) = 0.998665
P(beta0.000000) = 0.999333
r2 = 0.0610171
calculated Spearman corr = -0.180791
Critical Spearman = 0.306000 2-sided at 5%; accept H0:not_related

Data:
Date E-M dist (AU) #UFO reports model-est #UFO rep
2006.21 2.51915 63 416.211**(2s too high)
2006.29 2.51974 275 416.193
2006.38 2.48425 294 417.305
2006.46 2.41282 343 419.593
2006.54 2.30777 430 423.084
2006.62 2.16929 415 427.938
2006.71 2.00134 319 434.257
2006.79 1.80668 392 442.282
2006.88 1.58944 404 452.329
2006.96 1.35457 378 464.869
2007.04 1.11123 437 480.398
2007.12 0.870366 264 499.558*(+2s)
2007.21 0.659287 358 521.341*(+1s)
2007.29 0.533317 312 537.97*(+1s)
2007.38 0.56198 315 533.865*(+1s)
2007.46 0.726742 432 513.701
2007.54 0.951441 462 492.573
2007.62 1.19598 467 474.634
2007.71 1.43716 447 460.227
2007.79 1.66682 443 448.601
2007.88 1.87639 373 439.313
2007.96 2.06297 351 431.879
2008.04 2.22026 471 426.116
2008.12 2.34779 366 421.736
2008.21 2.44156 338 418.665
2008.29 2.50052 433 416.794
2008.38 2.52365 340 416.071
2008.46 2.5105 483 416.481
2008.54 2.46147 566 418.028
2008.62 2.37702 504 420.766
2008.71 2.25901 389 424.759
2008.79 2.10941 535 430.133
2008.88 1.93098 453 437.064
2008.96 1.72641 343 445.846
2009.04 1.50284 486 456.723
2009.12 1.26284 386 470.368
2009.21 1.01885 337 487.205
2009.29 0.784865 313 507.667*
2009.38 0.597581 356 529.048*
2009.46 0.52424 394 539.317
2009.54 0.612113 607 527.163
2009.62 0.807613 499 505.427
2009.71 1.0434 588 485.338
2009.79 1.28789 323 468.828
2009.88 1.52582 316 455.533
2009.96 1.74886 285 444.833*
2010.04 1.94982 289 436.302
2010.12 2.12587 190 429.523*
2010.21 2.2724 259 424.296*
2010.29 2.38709 291 420.434
2010.38 2.46792 331 417.823
2010.46 2.51347 384 416.388
2010.62 2.49609 536 416.933
2010.71 2.43365 450 418.919
2010.79 2.33622 468 422.124
2010.88 2.20625 364 426.613
2010.96 2.04542 308 432.548
2011.04 1.85701 327 440.127
2011.12 1.64402 269 449.681*
2011.21 1.41367 331 461.52
2011.29 1.17076 310 476.306*
2011.38 0.92786 319 494.542*
2011.46 0.706325 414 515.936
2011.54 0.551893 779 535.285*
2011.62 0.539829 642 537.019
2011.71 0.677983 556 519.148
2011.79 0.893901 636 497.466
2011.88 1.13548 443 478.705
2011.96 1.37834 529 463.505
2012.04 1.61181 580 451.233
2012.12 1.82784 388 441.369
2012.21 2.01957 531 433.546
2012.29 2.18493 505 427.374
2012.38 2.31945 520 422.689
2012.46 2.42159 763 419.309**
2012.71 2.51711 767 416.275**
2012.79 2.47667 671 417.545*
2012.88 2.40104 778 419.977**
2012.96 2.29118 669 423.65*
2013.04 2.14882 393 428.681
2013.12 1.97679 279 435.225*
2013.21 1.77885 395 443.5
2013.29 1.55896 426 453.847
2013.38 1.32279 535 466.731
2013.46 1.07901 656 482.706*
2013.62 0.635824 909 524.183**
2013.71 0.527291 780 538.861*
2013.79 0.578014 796 531.659*
2013.88 0.753828 801 510.832*
2013.96 0.983546 767 489.971*
2014.04 1.22771 701 472.581*
2014.12 1.46917 550 458.5
2014.21 1.69569 520 447.254
2014.29 1.90312 658 438.204*
2014.38 2.08509 645 431.042*
2014.46 2.23909 775 425.454**
2014.79 2.524 793 416.061**
2014.88 2.50607 533 416.62
2014.96 2.45236 520 418.319
2015.04 2.36337 538 421.217
2015.12 2.24134 332 425.375
2015.21 2.08715 477 430.965
2015.29 1.90512 450 438.121
2015.38 1.69835 463 447.131
2015.46 1.47157 484 458.372
2015.54 1.23119 732 472.359*
2015.62 0.986977 619 489.698
2015.71 0.756428 723 510.562*
2015.79 0.579067 660 531.516
2015.88 0.526891 880 538.921**
2015.96 0.633757 432 524.438
2016.04 0.83684 410 502.639
2016.12 1.07504 425 482.995
2016.21 1.32031 408 466.878
2016.29 1.55661 385 453.966
2016.38 1.7767 383 443.595
2016.46 1.97452 434 435.316
2016.54 2.1469 682 428.751*
2016.62 2.28912 549 423.721
2016.71 2.3999 586 420.015*
2016.79 2.47607 488 417.564
2016.88 2.51684 489 416.283
2016.96 2.5215 349 416.138
2017.04 2.48997 334 417.125
2017.12 2.4228 414 419.27
2017.21 2.3209 344 422.64
2017.29 2.18617 407 427.33
2017.38 2.02176 361 433.461
2017.46 1.82993 418 441.279
2017.54 1.61501 509 451.078
2017.62 1.38222 407 463.284
2017.71 1.13799 450 478.532
2017.79 0.896303 483 497.255
2017.88 0.679924 351 518.924*
2017.96 0.540729 499 536.888
2018.04 0.550745 310 535.448*
2018.12 0.703104 226 516.295*
2018.21 0.925429 233 494.747*
2018.29 1.16727 217 476.54*
2018.38 1.41075 239 461.682*
2018.46 1.64174 229 449.79*
2018.54 1.85415 408 440.248
2018.62 2.04293 345 432.644
2018.71 2.20446 288 426.676
2018.79 2.33482 253 422.171*
2018.88 2.43267 227 418.951*
2018.96 2.49563 231 416.947*
2019.04 2.52285 319 416.096
2019.12 2.51386 198 416.376*
2019.21 2.46856 300 417.802
2019.29 2.38849 351 420.388
2019.38 2.27374 505 424.25
2019.46 2.12784 397 429.45
2019.54 1.95214 555 436.209
2019.62 1.75146 430 444.716
2019.71 1.52819 573 455.411
2019.79 1.29135 659 468.617*
2019.88 1.04589 613 485.151
2019.96 0.810345 655 505.162
2020.04 0.614331 499 526.88
2020.12 0.524343 525 539.301 -- close approach
2020.21 0.595822 743 529.279*
2020.38 1.01588 455 487.434
2020.46 1.26034 298 470.523*
2020.54 1.49953 555 456.896
2020.62 1.72421 619 445.946*

The model finds there is a weekly significant association. One test
finds it's 99% certain when Mars is closer there are more UFO
sightings; when it's further there are fewer.

The model makes predictions that are "mostly" close to the mark of
actual reports. But several months are estimated to be way higher than
actually observed.

In addition, the other stat test -- a Spearman Rank test -- finds
there is no real pattern to the report numbers vis a vis Mars
distance. But it may well be the case we should not expect all the
closer months to Mars have higher report numbers and further months
all have lower report numbers.

Finally, the model predicts a very close Mars around Feb/Mar at .52
AU. The "real" close approach was closer to the middle of the
year. But this calculation would seem reasonable given how simple the
model is (circular orbits).

Overall, there seems to be weak evidence that Mars has "something" to
do with UFO phenomena. The R2 statistic -- the "explanation power" of
the model -- shows that variations in the distance between E and M
corresponds with about 6% of the variation month-to-month of UFO
reports. I.e. it does not pretend to explain all reports -- just some
fraction of them. By co-incidence it is roughly the fraction of UFO
reports that researchers in the field judge to be "hard to explain".

--
COVID-19 bill started a 180-day countdown for UFO disclosures
New York Post, 30 Dec 2020
The report must address "observed airborne objects that have not been
identified" and should include a "detailed analysis of unidentified
phenomena data ...

UFOs Are Still a Mystery, and 2020 Showed Us the DoD is Paying Attention
The Debrief, 31 Dec 2020
[...] The Pentagon's officially authorized release of Navy videos
depicting aerial phenomena on April 27, 2020 ranks among the
most noteworthy stories of the year, and arguably, in
the broader history of UFOs. The Dept of Defense "authorized the
release of 3 unclassified Navy videos, one taken in Nov 2004 and
the other 2 in Jan 2015, which have been circulating in the
public domain after unauthorized releases in 2007 and 2017," according to an
official Pentagon statement.
[...] "The aerial phenomena observed in the videos remain characterized
as `unidentified'," the statement concluded, adding a link to the
Naval Air Systems Command FOIA Reading Room where the files could be
downloaded and viewed.
If the objects in these videos were anything known to our
military--either from its own inventory or suspected of belonging to
that of an adversary--it seems unlikely that the DoD's "thorough
review" would have cleared them for release. This, in addition to
characterizing the aerial phenomena in question as "unidentified,"
which explicitly conveys that the objects appear to be of unknown origin.

UAP Task Force to Provide Report to Senate Intelligence Committee
The recent passing of the Intelligence Authorization Act for 2021 may
help shed light on the Pentagon's current investigations into UFOs.
The Debrief, 29 Dec 2020
Since it was first presented by the Senate Select Intelligence
Committee in June, this year's Intelligence Authorization Act has been
of unusual interest thanks to an included provision titled "Advanced
Aerial Threats." In this inclusion, the committee offered intriguing
support for the "efforts of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task
Force at the Office of Naval Intelligence" and requested the production
of an unclassified report detailing the analysis of UFOs, or as The
Pentagon now terms them, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) or
"Anomalous Aerial Vehicles."

Rendlesham Forest UFO: Are we any closer to the truth 40 years on?
BBC News, 26 Dec 2020

The Debrief @Debriefmedia 15 Dec 2020 13:56Z
New insights into recent controversial claims about a "Galactic
Federation" and aliens by Israel's former space chief!
#galacticfederation #aliens #space #ufo #ufotwitter
https://t.co/qMSrGHpXHcloom.ly/KmtorXQ
[Seems to be re-spin of well-known conspiracy theories dating back to
Eisenhower admin. The only new info relates to current US military
thinking that UFO/UAF are real but not necessarily ET].

UFO Expert Can't Think of a 'Rational Explanation' to UK Cop's ...
News18, 09 Dec 2020
A video footage shot along the A59 between Skipton and Bolton Abbey in
England's North Yorkshire has captured what is believed to be an
unidentified flying ...

Former Israeli space security chief says extraterrestrials exist ...
NBC News, 09 Dec 2020
A former Israeli space security chief has sent eyebrows shooting heavenward
by saying that earthlings have been in contact with extraterrestrials.

Leaked Reports From Pentagon UFO Task Force Discuss 'Non-Human Technology,'
Mysterious Objects
gvwire.com, 07 Dec 2020
"Recommend you take the brief I just received from our Director of Naval
Intelligence VADM Matt Kohler, on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP),"
Burke told ...

Video Shows Navy Pilots' Encounter With Possible UFO
The Daily Beast, 07 Dec 2020 13:24Z

Post Disclosure World @PostDisclosure 06 Dec 2020 04:20Z
Hal Puthoff was part of AATIP. So he's seen a lot of classified
information relating to UAP. His favorite hypothesis is also that these
UFOs are originating from ultraterrestrials. And UAP Task Force gives
credence to the potential UAP originate from the oceans...
[UFO sightings, while 90% junk like dozens of report of people Musk's
sat trains, are highly correlated with the coming and going of polar
phytoplankton. Maybe "just a coincidence" but also supporting the shock
idea there is an undiscovered tech society on Earth living and farming
the oceans].

Details of leaked Pentagon reports mention 'unidentified' UFOs
New York Post, 04 Dec 2020
Details from 2 allegedly classified intelligence reports from the Pentagon
on apparent UFOs have been leaked, including photos of purported
"unidentified ...
[Atlantis is alive and well].

skepticalifornia @skepticaliblog Dec 3
Seems like this should be a much bigger story on the old timeline?·Mar
Pentagon confirms UFOs are real, capable of rapidly navigating water,
air & space with an unknown propulsion system and they appear to be
extremely interested in our nuclear technology
https://t.co/WYobQBscCNwashingtonexaminer.com/opinion/confir...

Bridget Phetasy @BridgetPhetasy 04 Dec 2020 22:46Z
Replying to @skepticaliblog
I love how people will believe literally any conspiracy theory you tell
them in 2020 but we hear UFOs are real and it's crickets.

½(PEACE)Pd Luke Cook mV¸§ @UFO_LUKE 04 Dec 2020 15:46Z
After the incredible efforts of @Debriefmedia over the last few
days, I've decided that @LtTimMcMillan has earned a special place
on my Xmas tree this year. #ufotwitter
pic.twitter.com/xpYxjQt2Es

[Venus! Swamp gas!]
Disclose.tv ¨ @disclosetv 04 Dec 2020 0:23Z
NEW - Leaked photo from Pentagon UFO task force shows 'silver cube'
hovering over the Atlantic.
https://t.co/xpGhTRap55dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9...

[It's In The Water!]
The Debrief @Debriefmedia 02 Dec 2020 16:21Z
In an exclusive feature for The Debrief, US #military and
#intelligence officials, as well as #Pentagon emails, offer an
unprecedented glimpse behind the scenes of what's currently going on
with The Pentagon's investigation into #UFOs
https://t.co/PnsEzcxWNUthedebrief.org/fast-movers-an...
[https://www.thedebrief.org/fast-movers-and-transmedium-vehicles-the-pentagons-uap-task-force/].

The Debrief @Debriefmedia 02 Dec 2020 14:21Z
Due to a large amount of traffic, The Debrief crashed this morning. We
are sorry for the inconvenience caused. We are in the process of
migrating to a more robust server. We're gonna need a bigger boat.

wrote:
....

If you're interested in some other results we find:


Planet R2 between UFO sightings 2006-2020
and straight-line distance to the planet month by month
jupiter 0.0135758
mars 0.0610171
venus 0.0923789
saturn 0.152918

If the distance to Mars explains the month-by-month variation in number
of UFO reports submitted to the NUFORC then you should be REALLY
interested that the distance to Saturn shows and R2 of 15%.
It is particularly interesting that unlike Mars the Saturn model
passes all statistical tests at 95% or better.

It may be other bodies show an even better correlation. E.g. bigger
asteroids.

There is also some modeling that shows UFO sightings up-tick
when some largely unpredictable events happen on Earth.
The interesting thing is the up tick happens with a 5 month lag.
Either the UFO's are taking their time ambling over from Mars or wherever,
or maybe they can somehow sense these events have happened, and travel
at high speed to get here to benefit from them. If so, they could come
from as far afield as the middle of the Oort.

All fascinatin stuff.