MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 17:40 UTC, 10 NOVEMBER 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 10 NOVEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 18 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: IN-PROGRESS (CORONAL HOLE BASED)

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 10 NOVEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 10 - 18 NOVEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 30, 25, 30 (10 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 7 TO 8 DAYS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH AFTER MOONRISE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO DARK
SKY SITES OF NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

SCOTLAND AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN IRELAND/CENTRAL U.K. TO EXTREME NORTHERN
NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME NORTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO
ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTRENE SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA (VICTORIA).


SYNOPSIS...

A large and extended transequatorial solar coronal hole is beginning to
affect solar wind conditions. Periods of minor to major geomagnetic and
auroral storm activity are expected to occur over the next 7 to 8 days in
association with this large coronal hole. There is a fair chance periods of
activity could become occasionally strong enough to be observed over
wide-spread middle latitude regions. The trick will be in finding a dark-sky
location during substorm activity and before the moon rises. After moonrise,
sky brightness will increase and drown out much of the fainter activity. This
means observations in the early evening hours after darkness falls may be the
best opportunity for many observers, although this is not the optimal time
for aurora visibility from middle latitudes as the auroral oval is typically
located further poleward during the early evening hours. Near local midnight
activity typically reaches its most equatorward position (and hence is most
easily viewed from middle latitudes near this time). However, the near-full
(or full waning) moon will be observed on most nights near local midnight
during this disturbance.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
18 November. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html