Could 2010 be last USA manned launch in our lifetime ?

Is it conceivable that this year's last shuttle flight could be the last
USA manned launch in the next 50/60 years ?

With Russia offering relatively cheap launches, and possibily ESA with
ATV, will the USA have sufficient justification and determination to
start a new manned space propgramme, and develop to completion new
vehicles ?


Since the USA will be focused on its deficit for at least the next 5
years, it is unlikely that NASA would be given a mandate to develop
something new. And by the time money might again be available, won't
NASA have lost all the expertise needed to build a new space
vehicle/rocket ?


Or is there a realistic chance that one of the private small companies
will actually come up with orbit capable vehicle that will be cost
competitive with the russian soyuz ?

On Feb 8, 9:58�am, John Doe wrote:
Is it conceivable that this year's last shuttle flight could be the last
USA manned launch in the next 50/60 years ?

With Russia offering relatively cheap launches, and possibily ESA with
ATV, will the USA have sufficient justification and determination to
start a new manned space propgramme, and develop to completion new
vehicles ?

Since the USA will be focused on its deficit for at least the next 5
years, it is unlikely that NASA would be given a mandate to develop
something new. And by the time money might again be available, won't
NASA have lost all the expertise needed to build a new space
vehicle/rocket ?

Or is there a realistic chance that one of the private small companies
will actually come up with orbit capable vehicle that will be cost
competitive with the russian soyuz ?

I think the last shuttle flight will be late 2011. Issues will come up
and delay the final flights...... nasa will stretch it to the max to
delay massive job loss...

I think private industry will coe thru with a competive launcher but
it will take time.

the fastest will be a capsule on a delta heavy.

This is NASAs FAULT!

If they had choosen existing expendables with a apollo like capsule we
would be flying by now...........

But pork iggie nasa demanded its own dedicated launcher to pay off
contractors

they got what they deserve!

On Feb 8, 9:58*am, John Doe wrote:
Is it conceivable that this year's last shuttle flight could be the last
USA manned launch in the next 50/60 years ?

With Russia offering relatively cheap launches, and possibily ESA with
ATV, will the USA have sufficient justification and determination to
start a new manned space propgramme, and develop to completion new
vehicles ?

Since the USA will be focused on its deficit for at least the next 5
years, it is unlikely that NASA would be given a mandate to develop
something new. And by the time money might again be available, won't
NASA have lost all the expertise needed to build a new space
vehicle/rocket ?

Or is there a realistic chance that one of the private small companies
will actually come up with orbit capable vehicle that will be cost
competitive with the russian soyuz ?


Wrong on all accounts

A. The USA is not ending manned flight
B. NASA is not where the expertise resides, it is in industry
c. US manned flight does not have to compete with the Russians.
D. There are the major contractors ready to supply vehicles

On Feb 8, 7:50�pm, Me wrote:
On Feb 8, 9:58�am, John Doe wrote:





Is it conceivable that this year's last shuttle flight could be the last
USA manned launch in the next 50/60 years ?

With Russia offering relatively cheap launches, and possibily ESA with
ATV, will the USA have sufficient justification and determination to
start a new manned space propgramme, and develop to completion new
vehicles ?

Since the USA will be focused on its deficit for at least the next 5
years, it is unlikely that NASA would be given a mandate to develop
something new. And by the time money might again be available, won't
NASA have lost all the expertise needed to build a new space
vehicle/rocket ?

Or is there a realistic chance that one of the private small companies
will actually come up with orbit capable vehicle that will be cost
competitive with the russian soyuz ?

Wrong on all accounts

A. �The USA is not ending manned flight
B. �NASA is not where the expertise resides, it is in industry
c. �US manned flight does not have to compete with the Russians.
D. �There are the major contractors ready to supply vehicles- Hide

USA ending all flights on US launchers till private industry can put
something together.

NASA expertise is pork biggie oversold programs..

US paid for manned flight will be hard to sell to americans, if russia
can fly americans for a fraction of the cost.

bob haller safety advocate wrote:

USA ending all flights on US launchers till private industry can put
something together.

A private enterprise would want assured business of sufficient
time/flights to payback the investment.

Will they have the time to develop/test a vehicle AND operate it enough
times before the station is de-orbited in 2020 ? After the ISS is
deorbited, will the USA have any need to send men into space ?

Unless the USA develops the functional equivalent of a space shuttle to
allow the launching and automated docking/berthing in space, it will not
be in a position to build a new station or perhaps an expedition ship to
Mars, and hence have no reason to send men into space ubnless they are
guests in another nation's station/vehicle.

On Feb 9, 12:10*am, John Doe wrote:
bob haller safety advocate wrote:

USA ending all flights on US launchers till private industry can put
something together.

A private enterprise would want assured business of sufficient
time/flights to payback the investment.

Will they have the time to develop/test a vehicle AND operate it enough
times before the station is de-orbited in 2020 ? After the ISS is
deorbited, will the USA have any need to send men into space ?


Spacex is close as we speak

2015 is not too late. Only the spacecraft is required to be
developed. There are many LV's to choose from.

Na rijp beraad schreef Me :
On Feb 9, 12:10*am, John Doe wrote:
bob haller safety advocate wrote:

USA ending all flights on US launchers till private industry can put
something together.

A private enterprise would want assured business of sufficient
time/flights to payback the investment.

Will they have the time to develop/test a vehicle AND operate it enough
times before the station is de-orbited in 2020 ? After the ISS is
deorbited, will the USA have any need to send men into space ?


Spacex is close as we speak

2015 is not too late. Only the spacecraft is required to be
developed. There are many LV's to choose from.

Not all LV are man-rated... AFAIK only the shuttle is (at the US side).

"André, PE1PQX" wrote in message
...

Not all LV are man-rated... AFAIK only the shuttle is (at the US side).


Actually, but the standards that NASA uses today, the shuttle is NOT
man-rated.

And besides, what a paying passenger is willing to fly on may be a different
bar than what NASA is willing to put its astronauts on.



--
Greg Moore
Ask me about lily, an RPI based CMC.

Unless the USA develops the functional equivalent of a space shuttle to
allow the launching and automated docking/berthing in space, it will not
be in a position to build a new station or perhaps an expedition ship to
Mars, and hence have no reason to send men into space ubnless they are guests in another nation's station/vehicle.

You DONT NEED a shuttle to build a station!!

Slylab, Mir, and other earlier USSR stations were built without the
shuttle. Although shuttle supported MIR in its later years

I believe the shuttles building ISS actually increased costs, given
the space and weight constraints on the shuttle launching modules.

Bigger pre fitted modules would of cost less to design build and
launch
Larger would of made in space access easier for service too

On Feb 9, 6:08�am, Andr� PE1PQX wrote:
Na rijp beraad schreef Me :





On Feb 9, 12:10�am, John Doe wrote:
bob haller safety advocate wrote:

USA ending all flights on US launchers till private industry can put
something together.

A private enterprise would want assured business of sufficient
time/flights to payback the investment.

Will they have the time to develop/test a vehicle AND operate it enough
times before the station is de-orbited in 2020 ? After the ISS is
deorbited, will the USA have any need to send men into space ?

Spacex is close as we speak
2015 is not too late. �Only the spacecraft is required to be
developed. �There are many LV's to choose from.

Not all LV are man-rated... AFAIK only the shuttle is (at the US side).- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Delta heavy is near man rated, since the satellites it launches cost
so much.

With launch boost escape man rating may not be a big issue, since its
far safer than the shuttle!