Design Shenzhou program objectives

Here is the scenario for commentary (history and strategy).
Shenzhou 5 has completed a successful mission, with Lt. Colonel Yang Liwei
orbiting the Earth 14 times for 21 hours.

You are the mission planner for the Shenzhou program and the program
director has asked you
for a list of the mission objectives for the follow-up flights.

The Chinese leadership has publicly announced some specific long-term goals
for the Chinese manned
space program. These goals do not have specific timeframes.

1.) Earth orbiting space station
2.) Circum-lunar flight
3.) Landing upon moon

You have a wealth of information from the earlier Russian and American
manned and unmanned programs
from which to draw comparisons and "lessons learned".

For the Shenzhou program,
name the flights (starting with Shenzhou 6), mission objectives and
estimated timeframe.

You can also name new or parallel programs to achieve additional objectives
for achieving
the recently stated manned space goals for China.

G. Beat

"G.Beat" wrote in
news:HsDkb.184056$%h1.173806@sccrnsc02:

Here is the scenario for commentary (history and strategy).
Shenzhou 5 has completed a successful mission, with Lt. Colonel Yang
Liwei orbiting the Earth 14 times for 21 hours.

You are the mission planner for the Shenzhou program and the program
director has asked you
for a list of the mission objectives for the follow-up flights.

The Chinese leadership has publicly announced some specific long-term
goals for the Chinese manned
space program. These goals do not have specific timeframes.

1.) Earth orbiting space station
2.) Circum-lunar flight
3.) Landing upon moon

You have a wealth of information from the earlier Russian and American
manned and unmanned programs
from which to draw comparisons and "lessons learned".

For the Shenzhou program,
name the flights (starting with Shenzhou 6), mission objectives and
estimated timeframe.

You can also name new or parallel programs to achieve additional
objectives for achieving
the recently stated manned space goals for China.

Well, the answer to this question depends greatly on the point of view that
I take as "Shenzhou mission planner." Do I take the point of view of myself
as a Western observer of the Chinese program, with my cultural baggage from
the Cold War, or the point of view of a Chinese person, free (for the
moment) of Cold War pressure from the US, and from a culture with a
propensity to think long-term?

Assuming the latter (and informed by advice from Asian friends, most of
which tend to be Japanese or Taiwanese, so note biases), here is my plan.
My additional assumption is funding for gradual ramp-up to 4-5 Shenzhou
flights per year, and no ISS dockings (which, for this program, would be an
unnecessary distraction).

One more disclaimer: this is not my prediction of what *will* happen, just
what *might* happen granted the assumptions above. Personally, I believe
that the Western media reports of plans for manned Chinese lunar flights
are based on mistranslation, and that their actual program will be geared
more toward a Shenzhou-based mini-station.

August 2004: Shenzhou 6
Crew: 3
Duration: 7 days
First long-duration Shenzhou flight; stress-test of life-support system

June 2005: Shenzhou 7
Crew: 2
Duration: 4 days
Rendezvous (no docking) with the orbital module from Shenzhou 6. Shenzhou 7
orbital module contains core power/propulsion capability for Shenzhou
station.

March 2006: Shenzhou 8
Crew: 2
Duration: 4 days
Rendezvous and docking with Shenzhou 7 orbital module. Shenzhou 7/8 orbital
modules remain attached. Shenzhou 8 orbital module contains multiple
berthing ports for future Shenzhou spacecraft.

December 2006: Shenzhou 9
Crew: 3
Duration: 4 days
Orbital module equipped with airlock. First EVA. No rendezvous/docking
objectives.

August 2007: Shenzhou 10
Crew: 3
Duration: 7 days
Rendezvous/docking with Shenzhou 7/8 orbital module complex, Shenzhou 10
orbital module contains EVA airlock based on Shenzhou 9. EVA while docked.
Initial operational capability of Shenzhou-based space station. Completion
of objective 1. Unstated assumption from here on is that all Shenzhou
orbital modules remain attached to Shenzhou station to augment its
capabilities.

March 2008: Shenzhou 11
Crew: 2
Duration: 45 days
Rendezvous/docking with Shenzhou station. Shenzhou 11 orbital module
contains additional life-support equipment. Long-duration life-support
test.

August/September 2008: Shenzhou 12
Crew: 3
Duration: 14 days
Rendezvous/docking with Shenzhou station. 2008 Olympics PR flight. Possible
inclusion of foreign guest yuhangyuan.

March 2009: Shenzhou 13
Crew: 0
Duration: 4 days
Automated rendezvous/docking test with Shenzhou station. Shenzhou 13
orbital module contains propellant/consumables tanks. Demonstration of in-
orbit refueling (a la Progress-Salyut 6).

August 2009: Shenzhou 14
Crew: 0
Duration: 7 days
Automated rendezvous/docking (EOR) with upper stage previously launched by
Long March 3 rocket. Boost to high elliptical orbit, undocking and re-entry
to test uprated Shenzhou heat shield for lunar-return trajectory.

December 2009: Shenzhou 15
Crew: 2
Duration: 90 days
First long-duration Shenzhou station flight, taking advantage of
consumables launched by Shenzhou 13.

March 2010: Shenzhou 16
Crew: 1
Duration: 7 days
Manned repeat of Shenzhou 14 flight.

June 2010: Shenzhou 17
Crew: 2
Duration: 180 days
Second long-duration Shenzhou station flight. Start of permanent occupation
of Shenzhou station.

September 2010: Shenzhou 18
Crew: 0
Duration: 4 days
Resupply mission for Shenzhou 17. Demonstration of remote-piloting
capability of Shenzhou 18 by Shenzhou 17 crew.

November 2010: Shenzhou 19
Crew: 2
Duration: 4 days
In-orbit checkout of Shenzhou lunar lander (in place of orbital module).

December 2010: Shenzhou 20
Crew: 2
Duration: 180 days
Third long duration Shenzhou station flight, replacement crew for Shenzhou
17. Orbital module contains additional supplies such that no resupply
necessary.

March 2011: Shenzhou 21
Crew: 2
Duration: 7 days
EOR with previously-launched stage, manned circumlunar flight. Test version
of Shenzhou lunar lander carried as emergency lifeboat. Completion of
objective 2.

June 2011: Shenzhou 22
Crew: 3
Duration: 180 days
Fourth long duration Shenzhou station flight, first with three crewmembers.

September 2011: Shenzhou 23
Crew: 3
Duration: 7 days
EOR with previously-launched stage, manned lunar orbit flight. As with
Shenzhou 21, lunar lander carried as emergency lifeboat.

December 2012: Shenzhou 24
Crew: 3
Duration: 180 days
Fifth long duration Shenzhou station flight.

March 2013: Shenzhou 25
Crew: 3
Duration: 10 days
Manned lunar orbit flight, undocking and checkout of Shenzhou lunar lander,
demonstration of LOR.

June 2013: Shenzhou 26
Crew: 3
Duration: 180 days
Sixth long duration Shenzhou station flight.

September 2013: Shenzhou 27
Crew: 3
Duration: 10 days
Manned lunar landing, completion of objective 3.


--
JRF

Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail,
check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and
think one step ahead of IBM.

"Jorge R. Frank" wrote in message
...
"G.Beat" wrote in
news:HsDkb.184056$%h1.173806@sccrnsc02:


Well, the answer to this question depends greatly on the point of view
that
I take as "Shenzhou mission planner." Do I take the point of view of
myself
as a Western observer of the Chinese program, with my cultural baggage
from
the Cold War, or the point of view of a Chinese person, free (for the
moment) of Cold War pressure from the US, and from a culture with a
propensity to think long-term?

Assuming the latter (and informed by advice from Asian friends, most of
which tend to be Japanese or Taiwanese, so note biases), here is my plan.

Correct assumption.

One more disclaimer: this is not my prediction of what *will* happen, just
what *might* happen granted the assumptions above. Personally, I believe
that the Western media reports of plans for manned Chinese lunar flights
are based on mistranslation, and that their actual program will be geared
more toward a Shenzhou-based mini-station.

Great observation about media.

September 2010: Shenzhou 18
Crew: 0
Duration: 4 days
Resupply mission for Shenzhou 17. Demonstration of remote-piloting
capability of Shenzhou 18 by Shenzhou 17 crew.

Sounds like a Progress like mission (e.g. MIR, ISS Alpha)
Are you assuming that this mission 18 Shenzhou vehicle stays docked (life
boat) at mini-station ?

September 2013: Shenzhou 27
Crew: 3
Duration: 10 days
Manned lunar landing, completion of objective 3.

Great, a decade based program with about 20 manned flights.

GB

Shenzhou 6, 2004: multi person, multi day mission

Shenzhou 7, late 2004: rendezvous with orbital module left in orbit by Shenzhou 6

Shenzhou 8, 2005: ISS rendezvous (no docking)

Shenzhou 9, 2006: Dock with ISS, 6 day stay, return to Earth.

Shenzhou 10, 2007: Dock with ISS, power down for 30 days, return to Earth

Shenzhou 11, 2008: Dock with ISS, 90 day stay

STS-131, 2008: Bring Chinese lab to ISS for berthing with PMA-2.

etc, etc.

No lunar missions in your lifetime for Shenzhou, sorry

"G.Beat" wrote in
news:rDHkb.185380$%h1.175858@sccrnsc02:

"Jorge R. Frank" wrote in message
...

September 2010: Shenzhou 18
Crew: 0
Duration: 4 days
Resupply mission for Shenzhou 17. Demonstration of remote-piloting
capability of Shenzhou 18 by Shenzhou 17 crew.

Sounds like a Progress like mission (e.g. MIR, ISS Alpha)
Are you assuming that this mission 18 Shenzhou vehicle stays docked
(life boat) at mini-station ?

Good question. It depends on the engineered lifetime of the Shenzhou
descent module. If the descent module is good for 180 days, Shenzhou 18
could leave just the orbital module as a station expansion. If the descent
module is good for less, Shenzhou 18 would stay docked altogether as a
lifeboat... and the rest of my schedule would be shot, since there would
have to be an additional Shenzhou launch to the station every 90 days or so
to change out the descent module lifeboat. That, in turn, would throw off
the lunar landing date, since I scheduled it on a "non-interference" basis
with a permanently manned station. Or the Chinese could simply not man the
station full-time...

For reference, the Soyuz Ferry was good for 90 days; the Soyuz TM and TMA
for about 200.

Such exercises help to illustrate how the timeline is dependent on
assumptions.

September 2013: Shenzhou 27
Crew: 3
Duration: 10 days
Manned lunar landing, completion of objective 3.

Great, a decade based program with about 20 manned flights.

And based on a ****load of assumptions, of course...

--
JRF

Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail,
check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and
think one step ahead of IBM.

On or about 19 Oct 2003 19:34:39 -0700, Explorer8939
made the sensational claim that:
No lunar missions in your lifetime for Shenzhou, sorry

Funny, I'd say the same thing about an ISS docking. Let alone multiple
dockings. I think a fly-around of ISS by a Shenzou is a remote possibility,
but I suspect there are better ways for reconnoitering the station without
dealing with NASA or being so blatant as to approach the station without doing
so.
--
This is a siggy | To E-mail, do note | This space is for rent
It's properly formatted | who you mean to reply-to | Inquire within if you
No person, none, care | and it will reach me | Would like your ad here

Jorge R. Frank spewed out:
"G.Beat" wrote in
news:rDHkb.185380$%h1.175858@sccrnsc02:


"Jorge R. Frank" wrote in message
...


September 2010: Shenzhou 18
Crew: 0
Duration: 4 days
Resupply mission for Shenzhou 17. Demonstration of remote-piloting
capability of Shenzhou 18 by Shenzhou 17 crew.

Sounds like a Progress like mission (e.g. MIR, ISS Alpha)
Are you assuming that this mission 18 Shenzhou vehicle stays docked
(life boat) at mini-station ?


Good question. It depends on the engineered lifetime of the Shenzhou
descent module. If the descent module is good for 180 days, Shenzhou 18
could leave just the orbital module as a station expansion. If the descent
module is good for less, Shenzhou 18 would stay docked altogether as a
lifeboat... and the rest of my schedule would be shot, since there would
have to be an additional Shenzhou launch to the station every 90 days or so
to change out the descent module lifeboat. That, in turn, would throw off
the lunar landing date, since I scheduled it on a "non-interference" basis
with a permanently manned station. Or the Chinese could simply not man the
station full-time...

For reference, the Soyuz Ferry was good for 90 days; the Soyuz TM and TMA
for about 200.

Such exercises help to illustrate how the timeline is dependent on
assumptions.


Including a big one: that they need or even want to have full time lifeboat
capability. Skylab had a waiting rescue vehicle ready to go during its 3 tours,
and originally the Shuttle was thought to offer rescue mission capability once
operational. The Chinese might decide on the rescue mission approach as an
alternative to a lifeboat configuration. Or they might dispense with the notion
of emergency descent/rescue altogether.


And based on a ****load of assumptions, of course...




--
bp
Proud Member of the Human O-Ring Society Since 2003

"LooseChanj" wrote in message
m...
On or about 19 Oct 2003 19:34:39 -0700, Explorer8939

made the sensational claim that:
No lunar missions in your lifetime for Shenzhou, sorry

Funny, I'd say the same thing about an ISS docking. Let alone multiple
dockings. I think a fly-around of ISS by a Shenzou is a remote
possibility,
but I suspect there are better ways for reconnoitering the station without
dealing with NASA or being so blatant as to approach the station without
doing
so.

I agree; unless as part of some deal with China on
some other issue, there's not going to be an ISS
missions.

Shenzhou probably isn't good for lunar landing, either,
but circumlunar flight is almost trivial, assuming they have
sufficient radiation shielding. The difficulties of lunar
missions come with lunar orbit and landing, which
require a lot of additional fuel and a lot of additional
mass, which means you probably need a larger
launch vehicle, etc.

But circumlunar flight should be no problem.

Bruce

Bruce Sterling Woodcock wrote:


But circumlunar flight should be no problem.



And it gives them great Communist Bragging Rights over the Russians, who
never did do it with a manned craft.

Pat

Bruce Palmer wrote in
t:

Jorge R. Frank spewed out:
"G.Beat" wrote in
news:rDHkb.185380$%h1.175858@sccrnsc02:

"Jorge R. Frank" wrote in message
...

September 2010: Shenzhou 18
Crew: 0
Duration: 4 days
Resupply mission for Shenzhou 17. Demonstration of remote-piloting
capability of Shenzhou 18 by Shenzhou 17 crew.

Sounds like a Progress like mission (e.g. MIR, ISS Alpha)
Are you assuming that this mission 18 Shenzhou vehicle stays docked
(life boat) at mini-station ?

Good question. It depends on the engineered lifetime of the Shenzhou
descent module.

Such exercises help to illustrate how the timeline is dependent on
assumptions.

Including a big one: that they need or even want to have full time
lifeboat capability. Skylab had a waiting rescue vehicle ready to go
during its 3 tours,

But it also had the CSM docked to the station itself as a lifeboat, and no
Skylab flight exceeded the lifetime of the lifeboat. The Skylab rescue
Apollo was a backup to the lifeboat, not an alternative to the lifeboat.

and originally the Shuttle was thought to offer
rescue mission capability once operational.

Yes, at a weekly flight rate, there would always have been one on the pad.

The Chinese might decide
on the rescue mission approach as an alternative to a lifeboat
configuration. Or they might dispense with the notion of emergency
descent/rescue altogether.

I would consider that out-of-character for them, given the conservatism
they've shown so far, and the low Shenzhou flight rate I'm assuming.

--
JRF

Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail,
check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and
think one step ahead of IBM.