China's future Shenzhou Plans ?

If predictions are right, China's first astronaut will be in orbit in
around 3 weeks time. But once they've orbited Shenzhou 5, how will
their program develop, and what further manned flights will happen and
when.

Based on their pace of unmanned flights - around one every 9 months or
so, here is a possible schedule for discussion.

Late 2003 Shenzhou 5 1 crew - 1 to 2 days shakedown flight
Summer 2004 Shenzhou 6 2 crew - up to 7 days test flight
Spring 2005 Shenzhou 7 3 crew - up to 10 days - operational flight
Late 2005 Shenzhou 8 3 crew - up to 10 days - docking - mini
space station
" Shenzhou 9 3 crew - up to 10 days - " " "

Shenzhou's 5 to 7 to be flown by members of the core 14 man military
astronaut team. On later flights, the third seat to be available to
astronauts outside this core team. So, to facilitate this, after
Shenzhou 5 has flown, expect China to recruit more astronauts, a group
of engineers,researchers etc, probably from within the space program,
and a team of women Air Force pilots.

The first 'researcher' and first woman to fly on Shenzhou's 8 and 9,
so as to be aboard the 'space station'.

Purely speculative schedule and scenarios, to prompt discussion and
debate.

Jason

(Jason S) wrote in message . com...
If predictions are right, China's first astronaut will be in orbit in
around 3 weeks time. But once they've orbited Shenzhou 5, how will
their program develop, and what further manned flights will happen and
when.

10th October has been widely reported as the date - we don't have to
wait too long to see if it's right.


Based on their pace of unmanned flights - around one every 9 months or
so, here is a possible schedule for discussion.

Late 2003 Shenzhou 5 1 crew - 1 to 2 days shakedown flight
Summer 2004 Shenzhou 6 2 crew - up to 7 days test flight

This seems a reasonable timescale - they aren't saying whether the
first flight will have one or two crew, but even if it has two, a
second similar, but longer shakedown flight seems likely.


Spring 2005 Shenzhou 7 3 crew - up to 10 days - operational flight

Again, appears to be a logical incremental step, taking up a full
operational crew, extending duration.
Late 2005 Shenzhou 8 3 crew - up to 10 days - docking - mini
space station
" Shenzhou 9 3 crew - up to 10 days - " " "


China has mentioned 'small space stations' so they could presumably
pass two docked Shenzhou's off as such an achievement. A what stage do
they need to demonstrate EVA capability ?


Shenzhou's 5 to 7 to be flown by members of the core 14 man military
astronaut team. On later flights, the third seat to be available to
astronauts outside this core team. So, to facilitate this, after
Shenzhou 5 has flown, expect China to recruit more astronauts, a group
of engineers,researchers etc, probably from within the space program,
and a team of women Air Force pilots.

The first 'researcher' and first woman to fly on Shenzhou's 8 and 9,
so as to be aboard the 'space station'.

I'd agree that as the core team all appear to be military fighter
pilots, they will need to fly other specialists, once they move to
more scientific based flights. Might also depend if they want to use
Shenzhou for military surveillance etc, in which case military
officers who aren't pilots might go up.

China will also send a woman into orbit at some point - whether it
happens within this timeframe depends if they see it as a priority, in
terms of domestic propaganda. If they want to do it fairly soon, then
this seems a reasonable opportunity, although they could fly a woman
on your Shenzhou 7, if they are really keen.

They do have female pilots in the PLAAF, and some of these fly fighter
jets - I've seen a few pictures of a woman in her mid-twenties who
actually flies SU-27's. A girl with this flying experience and
background would relish the opportunity to make a spaceflight, and
could readied for a launch, in the third seat of a Shenzhou, in only
12 months or so.

The Russians have treated their woman cosmonauts pretty badly, down
the years, so I for one would like to see China give women a proper
role in their programme.



Purely speculative schedule and scenarios, to prompt discussion and
debate.

Yes, I'd be interested to read what anyone else thinks - all
speculation, but interesting nevertheless.


Jason

On 22 Sep 2003 05:19:55 -0700, (Tonyq) wrote:

The Russians have treated their woman cosmonauts pretty badly, down
the years,

....Oh, I dunno. Val Tereshkova was a high-ranking member of the CPSU
all the way up to the fall of the Evil Soviet Empire, and they seemed
to treat her pretty damned good despite the fact that all she did was
whine, cry and wet her pants thru most of her ride.

OM

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his country. He won it by making the other | Sergeant-At-Arms
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OM om@our_blessed_lady_mary_of_the_holy_NASA_researc h_facility.org wrote in message . ..
On 22 Sep 2003 05:19:55 -0700, (Tonyq) wrote:

The Russians have treated their woman cosmonauts pretty badly, down
the years,

...Oh, I dunno. Val Tereshkova was a high-ranking member of the CPSU
all the way up to the fall of the Evil Soviet Empire, and they seemed
to treat her pretty damned good despite the fact that all she did was
whine, cry and wet her pants thru most of her ride.



I was really thinking about the other 20 or so women who trained,
giving up alternative careers, got flight assignments, and then didn't
fly for various reasons, mainly to do with mission planners losing
interest in flying women.

Granted, Tereshkova has enjoyed forty years of celebrity status, but
she did put her life on the line for the glory of CCCP, and endure a
stressful three days, so perhaps she deserves it.

Our Chinese woman, when she flies, will doubtless acquire similar hero
status
but will expose herself to only a fraction of the risk, stress and
discomfort which Tereshkova confronted.