..07 First Atlantic Hurricane Nearing ..."Perfect"...More Global Warming Evidence

PCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers of "Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis"
http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/cl...qs-wg1-spm.jsp



Theory:

"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones
(typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."



Fact:


HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NEAR 0500 UTC...AIRCRAFT REPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF DEAN...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE

....THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HR ... PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


Gulp!

What I want to see is if the eye starts growing in size once
it reaches category 5 strength. At that strength, and an eye
on the order of a hundred miles across, Dean would be
another super-hurricane like Katrina and Wilma in 05.



Theory:


"Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic."


Fact:

Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks to Record Low
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
Aug 17, 2007

"Today is a historic day," said Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist
at the center. "This is the least sea ice we've ever seen in the satellite
record and we have another month left to go in the melt season this year."
The puzzling thing, he said, is that the melting is actually occurring
faster than computer climate models have predicted.

"Several years ago he would have predicted a complete melt of Arctic sea ice
in summer would occur by the year 2070 to 2100, Serreze said. But at the
rates now occurring, a complete melt could happen by 2030, he said Friday. "
http://www.physorg.com/news106577544.html


GULP!!!

Remember, global warming doesn't mean gradual warming everywhere.
But more extremes or swings in behavior. Such as going from the
most sever hurricane season on record (05) to one of the calmest
the next year etc etc.


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