A Different Way to 'Picture' Climate Change

My hobby is complexity science, formerly called
chaos theory. The 'integral' so to speak of this
science is the properties that emerge when a
complex dynamic system is poised at the
phase transition between its opposite extremes
in possibility.

The typical example. Imagine water being heated just
to the point where it turns to steam, but held there
at the transition point between water and steam.
At this ...very narrow...temperature range the
system behaves as neither water or air, but
chaotically changing states from one to the
other. It's both and neither water and air.
A cloud.

While persistantly standing poised at this
very delicate state, order spontaneously
emerges. Needless to say, if the temperature
were to be changed even a slight amount
the system would suddenly become either
water or air.

A very small change in system temp produces
a sudden and dramatic change in state.
From water to air.

The earth is a complex dynamic system that stands
poised between dramatic changes of state.

Ice ages and interglacials.

Most people visualize change as linear, or
at least proportional in some predictable
way. The real world doesn't work that way.
It's non linear.

Which means that a ...very small...change in
certain system variables can have a grossly
disproportionate response. It's important to be
able to recognize which complex system variables
would lead to such dramatic effects.

Simply put, the system variables which have the highest
level of connectivity to others are the ones where a
minor change can brink havoc. A variable like temperature
effects, or is connected to, virtually every other system
variable simultaneously. Defining the best example.
It's like changing a fundamental constant.

We should expect and know that changing a global
variable such as temperature should bring dramatic change.
When we see these dramatic effects actually happen, such
as with the sea ice changing so fast, it means we're
there already.

Thirty years out, not too late???

Sorry Charley. It's too late, we're committed to a much
warmer future imho. Now, whether that's really
a bad thing is another topic.

I'm undecided.



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