..07 First Atlantic Hurricane Nearing ..."Perfect"...More Global Warming Evidence

PCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers of "Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis"
http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/cl...qs-wg1-spm.jsp



Theory:

"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones
(typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."



Fact:


HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NEAR 0500 UTC...AIRCRAFT REPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF DEAN...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE

....THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HR ... PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


Gulp!

What I want to see is if the eye starts growing in size once
it reaches category 5 strength. At that strength, and an eye
on the order of a hundred miles across, Dean would be
another super-hurricane like Katrina and Wilma in 05.



Theory:


"Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic."


Fact:

Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks to Record Low
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
Aug 17, 2007

"Today is a historic day," said Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist
at the center. "This is the least sea ice we've ever seen in the satellite
record and we have another month left to go in the melt season this year."
The puzzling thing, he said, is that the melting is actually occurring
faster than computer climate models have predicted.

"Several years ago he would have predicted a complete melt of Arctic sea ice
in summer would occur by the year 2070 to 2100, Serreze said. But at the
rates now occurring, a complete melt could happen by 2030, he said Friday. "
http://www.physorg.com/news106577544.html


GULP!!!

Remember, global warming doesn't mean gradual warming everywhere.
But more extremes or swings in behavior. Such as going from the
most sever hurricane season on record (05) to one of the calmest
the next year etc etc.


s

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...
PCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers of "Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis"
http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/cl...qs-wg1-spm.jsp



Theory:

"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones
(typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."



Fact:


HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NEAR 0500 UTC...AIRCRAFT REPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF DEAN...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE

...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HR ... PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


Gulp!

What I want to see is if the eye starts growing in size once
it reaches category 5 strength. At that strength, and an eye
on the order of a hundred miles across, Dean would be
another super-hurricane like Katrina and Wilma in 05.




Fact:

Isolated events cannot be used as evidence of climate change. It is long
term trends that are important.

The papers that have been published linking increasing major hurricane
events with warming oceans have been strongly criticised for using
unreliable tropical cyclone records.


Fact:

Atlantic sea surface temperatures do have a strong correlation with
hurricane activity over the next 40 years and so it is likely that global
warming will have at least some influence in this basin. The other basins
are a different story however. In the NW Pacific region for example, the
most active basin in the world, the sea temperatures are so warm already
that it is other dynamical factors that influence activity, so warming the
ocean here will have little effect unless somehow the dynamical influences
become more favourable. The lack of any trends in the last 40 years in
typhoon activity despite this being the period of rapid warming suggests
that this is not happening. Similarily there are no significant trends in
cyclones around Australia.


For Deans eye to grow larger would probably require an eyewall replacement
cycle (which is what happened with Katrina). It is somewhat ominous that it
is close to cat 5 already and the storm has yet to traverse the warmest
waters. We'll see what happens in the next few days.

On Aug 18, 9:31 am, "Jonathan" swallow it.net wrote:

[...]
Gulp!

Spit it out!!!
[...]

GULP!!!

Spit it out!!!
[...]

You doom and gloom hucksters have been around forever.
All of these predictions share one factor: none have ever came true.

On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 09:31:08 -0400, "Jonathan"
wrote:

PCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers of "Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis"
http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/cl...qs-wg1-spm.jsp



Theory:

"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones
(typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger
peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation."



Fact:


HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NEAR 0500 UTC...AIRCRAFT REPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF DEAN...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE


Thanks for the weather report.


...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HR ... PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


Gulp!

What I want to see is if the eye starts growing in size once
it reaches category 5 strength. At that strength, and an eye
on the order of a hundred miles across, Dean would be
another super-hurricane like Katrina and Wilma in 05.



Theory:


"Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic."


Fact:

Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks to Record Low
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
Aug 17, 2007

"Today is a historic day," said Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist
at the center. "This is the least sea ice we've ever seen in the satellite
record and we have another month left to go in the melt season this year."
The puzzling thing, he said, is that the melting is actually occurring
faster than computer climate models have predicted.

"Several years ago he would have predicted a complete melt of Arctic sea ice
in summer would occur by the year 2070 to 2100, Serreze said. But at the
rates now occurring, a complete melt could happen by 2030, he said Friday. "
http://www.physorg.com/news106577544.html


GULP!!!

Remember, global warming doesn't mean gradual warming everywhere.
But more extremes or swings in behavior. Such as going from the
most sever hurricane season on record (05) to one of the calmest
the next year etc etc.


s



--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius

Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS

Joseph R. Darancette

Captain Compassion wrote:
On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 09:31:08 -0400, "Jonathan"
wrote:

PCC Working Group I Summary for Policymakers of "Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis"
http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/cl...qs-wg1-spm.jsp


Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks to Record Low
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer
Aug 17, 2007
The puzzling thing, he said, is that the melting is actually occurring
faster than computer climate models have predicted.

So the models are wrong?

--
http://OutSourcedNews.com
Our constitution protects criminals, drunks and U.S. Senators. Which at
times are, one and the same...

The problem with the global warming theory, is that a theory is like a
bowl of ice-cream, it only takes a little dab of bull**** to ruin the
whole thing. - Gump That -

Bawana wrote:

On Aug 18, 9:31 am, "Jonathan" swallow it.net wrote:

[...]
Gulp!

Spit it out!!!
[...]

GULP!!!

Spit it out!!!
[...]

You doom and gloom hucksters have been around forever.
All of these predictions share one factor: none have ever came true.

Over a hundred years ago it was stated that an increase in carbon dioxide
would raise global temperatures. That one has come true.

--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

Jonathan wrote:

What I want to see is if the eye starts growing in size once
it reaches category 5 strength. At that strength, and an eye
on the order of a hundred miles across, Dean would be
another super-hurricane like Katrina and Wilma in 05.

Oh No!
Maybe I should move the lawn furniture into the garage?

Paul in Houston, Texas.

"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...




Fact:

Isolated events cannot be used as evidence of climate change. It is long
term trends that are important.


That's what 'they' said about Andew, and Katrina and Wilma and Jean and...

The point is we're in the middle of establishing a clear trend of larger
more powerful hurricanes. Out of the last ten most damaging storms
in US history...seven..have been since just 2004. While the number
of landfalling hurricances of all types have stayed roughly unchanged.

RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.)

1 KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 26,500,000,000
3 WILMA (S FL) 2005 3 20,600,000,000
4 CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004 4 15,000,000,000
5 IVAN (AL/NW FL) 2004 3 14,200,000,000
6 RITA (SW LA, N TX) 2005 3 11,300,000,000
7FRANCES (FL) 2004 2 8,900,000,000
8 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,000,000,000
9 JEANNE (FL) 2004 3 6,900,000,000



And the number of major hurricanes each year is clearly up.


years av trop storms av hurricanes av major hurricanes

1851-2006 156 8.7 5.3 1.8
1997-2006 10 14.5 7.8 3.6

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf



My point is the facts are showing storms are becoming stronger
and larger during the same period greenhouse gasses spike.

Even the business community recognizes the dramatically
increased risk as home insurance rates in Florida have
gone up anywhere from 50% to 200% in the last two years.
Most private insurers and just dropping everyone near the
coast and forcing everyone into the state policy, Citizens,
which lost a couple of billion last year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/29/us...rssnyt&emc=rss





For Deans eye to grow larger would probably require an eyewall replacement
cycle (which is what happened with Katrina).


And with Wilma a month later, just around the time it hit the
lowest pressure ever recorded at 882 mb.



It is somewhat ominous that it
is close to cat 5 already and the storm has yet to traverse the warmest
waters. We'll see what happens in the next few days.


And it's ominous it went to a category one to a four so quickly.
In just 24 hours or so. It seems to me it used to be pretty rare
for a storm to get to category 5, just the right conditions
had to happen. Now, it seems something has to get in the
way to prevent them all from becoming a category 5.

"PauL" wrote in message
...
Jonathan wrote:

What I want to see is if the eye starts growing in size once
it reaches category 5 strength. At that strength, and an eye
on the order of a hundred miles across, Dean would be
another super-hurricane like Katrina and Wilma in 05.

Oh No!
Maybe I should move the lawn furniture into the garage?

Paul in Houston, Texas.

Well, dumbass, before that, maybe you want to take a look at this slideshow.
The Mississippi Gulf Coast after Katrina.

http://psds.wcu.edu/1564.asp

http://psds.wcu.edu/1565.asp

Jonathan wrote:


"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan" wrote in message
...




Fact:

Isolated events cannot be used as evidence of climate change. It is long
term trends that are important.


That's what 'they' said about Andew, and Katrina and Wilma and Jean and...

The point is we're in the middle of establishing a clear trend of larger
more powerful hurricanes. Out of the last ten most damaging storms
in US history...seven..have been since just 2004. While the number
of landfalling hurricances of all types have stayed roughly unchanged.

RANK HURRICANE YEAR CATEGORY DAMAGE (U.S.)

1 KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 26,500,000,000
3 WILMA (S FL) 2005 3 20,600,000,000
4 CHARLEY (SW FL) 2004 4 15,000,000,000
5 IVAN (AL/NW FL) 2004 3 14,200,000,000
6 RITA (SW LA, N TX) 2005 3 11,300,000,000
7FRANCES (FL) 2004 2 8,900,000,000
8 HUGO (SC) 1989 4 7,000,000,000
9 JEANNE (FL) 2004 3 6,900,000,000


Come on, you're using dollars to rank severity. The two are only very
loosely related even if you factor in inflation.


--
Brian Wakem