..Stock Market Panic...It's Time to BUY BUY BUY...!!!!!!

I think we're close to, or at, the bottom, as once a /true panic/ takes hold
it only takes a few days to play itself out. Anyone that hasn't sold by now
is either clue-less, or resigned to go long.
Time to start bargain hunting!

I bet a dart board could return 20% over the next couple of weeks.


Good luck


Jonathan


s

jonathan wrote:

I think we're close to, or at, the bottom, as once a /true panic/ takes hold
it only takes a few days to play itself out. Anyone that hasn't sold by now
is either clue-less, or resigned to go long.

Time to start bargain hunting!

I thought you said you were going to sit this one out?

I bet a dart board could return 20% over the next couple of weeks.

Have you considered complexity theorists anonymous?

I've heard they've got a great 13 point program.

"kT" wrote in message
...
jonathan wrote:

I think we're close to, or at, the bottom, as once a /true panic/ takes hold
it only takes a few days to play itself out. Anyone that hasn't sold by now
is either clue-less, or resigned to go long.

Time to start bargain hunting!

I thought you said you were going to sit this one out?


Until it hits 8500 I said, it just hit it.
It may go a bit lower, but you must remember
the first rule of trading, which surprisingly so many
seem to forget.

Buy low....sell high!

It's rather low right now.


I bet a dart board could return 20% over the next couple of weeks.

Have you considered complexity theorists anonymous?


I'm completely bonkers! They wouldn't even let me in the door.
You must understand what I'm going through right now.
It's like a chocolate lover taking a tour through Hershey's!
Or a trip to the Vatican for the faithful.

Or dare I say it's as if....Mother Nature... were shouting at us
....."this is Her Plan"....and using all kinds of color charts in every
shape and size. She/God is showing us a very precious secret
right now. As the entire economic, political and societal worlds
right now stands poised at....

Criticality...The Edge of Chaos!

(Uh oh, another long-winded rant, I can't help it)



At The Edge, there are /only two/ possible futures.


Perturbation and Transients - The Edge of Chaos

"This 'instability with order' is what we call the 'Edge of Chaos',
a system midway between stable and chaotic domains
(also called self-organized criticality)."
http://www.calresco.org/perturb.htm


And at criticality, those two futures are displayed as the
system behavior bifurcates while approaching criticality.
Two pre-images appear that tell us what is to come.

In a real world system, this critical state is the /only state/
where predictability of the future of complex systems
become simple and reliable.

It's like holding water at just the point of boiling, but not quite.
At that very narrow temperature range, where it transitions, it's
both water and vapor chaotically entangled. Both and neither.
As in a cloud.

Once there, even the slightest change in temp will cause a
dramatic change in behavior...a complete change in state
to either water or vapor. The system ....once at the edge
has no other future than those two dramatically different possibilities.
Static or chaotic attractors. Returning somewhat to it's former
equilibrium, or if pushed hard enough, into chaos and into 'thin air'
or disaster.

The world is at The Edge. I can't believe it!
Someone pinch me please.

And it requires a panic buy/sell situation to create this kind
of edge dynamics where the pre-images appear. One will
show a system bursting through criticality and into chaos.
For instance the Great Nasdaq Bubble of a few years ago.
All bubbles seem to look alike right?

And ....GUESS WHAT... the other type of pre-image looks like???

Yes, the last few weeks...today!

What complexity science has taught me is in that in
real world systems, predictability cannot be found
by looking at the input side, the initial conditions or details
that all of 'modern' science is about. (see butterfly effect)


Nonlinear Science - Chaos Tamed

"This phenomena is known as sensitivity to initial conditions,
or the Butterfly Effect. It arises because the errors that accumulate
from each collision do not simply add (as linear analyses assume),
but increase exponentially and this geometric progression
rapidly diverges any initial state to one that is unpredictably far
from the estimate."
http://www.calresco.org/nonlin.htm



Even if detailed system knowledge ...could...give that kind
of predictability, in the stock market the /most important/
details/variables are kept locked away from us mere mortals.

So why even go down that path? The reductionist path of
ever greater 'uncertainty'? So how do we figure out what's
going on inside a complex system without knowing any
internal system details?


TOWARD THE 'EDGE METHODOLOGY' FOR COMPLEX
SYSTEMS SIMULATION

"How are we to simulate the "edge dynamics" of complex systems
whose "formulae" are unknown in detail? The first traditional step
of the edge behavior simulation is a mechanical junction of the regular
and chaotic images and attempts to simulate these images of the
edge dynamics."
http://www.calresco.org/milov/ymtemcss.htm



On the /output/ side, the system patterns displayed, can at certain
times inform us mere mortals of the true state of internal affairs.
The displayed pattern can give insider-like information to
an outsider.

But this happens only under very specific circumstances.

A self organized system must be pushed far enough from
equilibrium, to the edge of chaos, before it's outward
behavior bifurcates into it's own system specific pre-images.
For any system there are ...only two...pre-images around
criticality. These two pre-images foretell the future of the
system at hand. For, at criticality, there are only two
possible future paths.

The two patterns, or pre-images, as displayed by the market
during the Nasdaq bubble, and right now are...universal.
Every complex adaptive system under the sun, physical
or living, exists persistently poised at The Edge.

In the abstract these two patterns define the source of Nature.
They define evolution and the source of all existence.

'God' is speaking to us, if only we dare to listen.

Oh, and btw, what does the current pre-image tell us about
the future?


"An Awful tempest mashed the air,
The clouds were gaunt and few;
A black, as of a spectre's cloak,
Hid heaven and earth from view.

The creatures chuckled on the roofs
And whistled in the air,
And shook their fists and gnashed their teeth,
And swung their frenzied hair.

The morning lit, the birds arose;
The monster's faded eyes
Turned slowly to his native coast,
And peace was Paradise!"


Don't you see the universal and timeless simplicity and
natural truth being displayed? Uncertainty drives panics.
It drives evolution. The uncertainty today in the markets
is as complete as can be. No one can possibly predict the future
from the cloud-like initial conditions that exist now.

So the panic happens.

However, if the economic system truly were about
to collapse, we'd know it. It would be obvious as it
was in '29. There would be /little uncertainty/....if...
the economic system were about to collapse into
anarchy.

If the panic is driven by uncertainty, the future is bright.

Those that survive this storm can expect an extended
period of stability and growth as a result of all the
new self correcting mechanisms being created.

You see now how Nature works? At the edge
the system spontaneously generates new problem
solving mechanisms....it Evolves and Creates
when pushed just to the brink.

This is forcing many economic systems to begin
acting in concert. This is a force for merging the
world into a more complete and just whole.
Instead of countless little fiefdoms where all
kinds of harm flourish without bounds.

Many may instinctively fear a kind of One World Govt
taking hold. Not me. As that kind of government can only
be a result of the rule of the many over the few.
The world can only become a single entity if freedom
and connectivity flourish. As with the Internet taking
down one wall after another. With the collective
weight of the people becoming the "Ruler".

Freedom, and Nature, requires diversity....no walls.



I've heard they've got a great 13 point program.


13?

Chaos results from instability. A financial system should be DESIGNED
to be stable. You can't do anything about natural chaotic systems.
Financial systems are man made, they can be designed and regulated for
stability. Why arn't they. Futures trading is I think the key.


- Ian Parker

On Oct 10, 5:21 am, Ian Parker wrote:
You can't do anything about natural chaotic systems.

Oh? Really?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_process

If you're in Palermo and can hear/see the bulls coming, you can get
the hell out of the way.
(see my post of 7 months back in which I disclosed my move to 80%
cash)

I'm going to make this bottom down *only* -17% YoY.

That might seem lousy to any of you option traders, but I'm in 401(k)
jail and can NOT (by SEC regs) trade options or margin.
So, for me, it's a win, all things considered.

Here is as good a place to start as any . .
http://sitmo.com/eqcat/1

Or, if you don't "believe" in science, there's always Faith Based
investment model. . .
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=25138

Comics has said he's *only* down 50% (for the week), and I understand
he uses this model.

They don't call it World Nut Daily fer nuthin. . . .

..-=d00b
..

Doobie Keebler wrote in message
...
On Oct 10, 5:21 am, Ian Parker wrote:

You can't do anything about natural chaotic systems.

Oh? Really?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_process

Do you understand that this link is a non-sequitur as a response?

chaos ! = random

If you're in Palermo and can hear/see the bulls coming, you can get
the hell out of the way.

Well, yeah, that's what I try to do. Strange thing is, stock market
participants tend to pride themselves on how much information they
IGNORE. They literally like to run for their lives right on the horns
of the bull...

And apparently, so do "complexity" theorists...

---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 1216

On Oct 10, 6:21*am, Ian Parker wrote:
Chaos results from instability. A financial system should be DESIGNED
to be stable. You can't do anything about natural chaotic systems.
Financial systems are man made, they can be designed and regulated for
stability. Why arn't they. Futures trading is I think the key.

* - Ian Parker

Just because a system is man made does that make it non-chaotic?
How about traffic control and grid lock?


shortT

On 13 Oct, 15:22, shortT wrote:
On Oct 10, 6:21*am, Ian Parker wrote:

Chaos results from instability. A financial system should be DESIGNED
to be stable. You can't do anything about natural chaotic systems.
Financial systems are man made, they can be designed and regulated for
stability. Why arn't they. Futures trading is I think the key.

* - Ian Parker

Just because a system is man made does that make it non-chaotic?
How about traffic control and grid lock?

shortT

If a system is man made it can be simulated to see how it behaves in a
real life situation.


- Ian Parker

jonathan wrote in message
.. .
"kT" wrote in message
...
jonathan wrote:

I think we're close to, or at, the bottom, as once a /true panic/ takes
hold
it only takes a few days to play itself out. Anyone that hasn't sold by
now
is either clue-less, or resigned to go long.

Time to start bargain hunting!

I thought you said you were going to sit this one out?

Until it hits 8500 I said, it just hit it.
It may go a bit lower, but you must remember
the first rule of trading, which surprisingly so many
seem to forget.

Buy low....sell high!

It's rather low right now.

I bet a dart board could return 20% over the next couple of weeks.

Have you considered complexity theorists anonymous?

I'm completely bonkers! They wouldn't even let me in the door.

They say you're not really crazy if you recognize that you're
crazy, but "they" say a lot of stupid stuff...

You must understand what I'm going through right now.
It's like a chocolate lover taking a tour through Hershey's!
Or a trip to the Vatican for the faithful.

Or dare I say it's as if....Mother Nature... were shouting at us
...."this is Her Plan"....and using all kinds of color charts in every
shape and size. She/God is showing us a very precious secret
right now. As the entire economic, political and societal worlds
right now stands poised at....

Criticality...The Edge of Chaos!

Uh, I think we hit the "chaotic boundary" for this current situation
about five years ago...those of us (one person) who work with chaos
theory in the markets in a deep and meaningful way saw it years
ago, as we're always collecting and analyzing the data to detect
that transition from linear to chaos and trade accordingly...

What complexity science has taught me is in that in
real world systems, predictability cannot be found
by looking at the input side, the initial conditions or details
that all of 'modern' science is about. (see butterfly effect)

That's why I can't really figure out "complexity", just seems
like garden-variety dumbness disguised as a "theory"...

The butterfly effect is real, but misleading, and of course
doesn't imply in an of itself that we just give up and just start
guessing about the future performance of systems...

Even if detailed system knowledge ...could...give that kind
of predictability, in the stock market the /most important/
details/variables are kept locked away from us mere mortals.

Nah, a lot is pretty public information...I mean, just what do
you think actually goes on in the stock market, anyway?

So why even go down that path? The reductionist path of
ever greater 'uncertainty'? So how do we figure out what's
going on inside a complex system without knowing any
internal system details?

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!!! (under a different name, I take it)

A self organized system must be pushed far enough from
equilibrium, to the edge of chaos, before it's outward
behavior bifurcates into it's own system specific pre-images.
For any system there are ...only two...pre-images around
criticality. These two pre-images foretell the future of the
system at hand. For, at criticality, there are only two
possible future paths.

Yup, technical analysis...the market may go up, or it may
go down...

The two patterns, or pre-images, as displayed by the market
during the Nasdaq bubble, and right now are...universal.
Every complex adaptive system under the sun, physical
or living, exists persistently poised at The Edge.

In the abstract these two patterns define the source of Nature.
They define evolution and the source of all existence.

'God' is speaking to us, if only we dare to listen.

"He"'s smiting our 401(k) plans...

Don't you see the universal and timeless simplicity and
natural truth being displayed? Uncertainty drives panics.
It drives evolution. The uncertainty today in the markets
is as complete as can be. No one can possibly predict the future
from the cloud-like initial conditions that exist now.

A couple of times in the last few weeks I re-posted old posts
of mine from several years ago where I "predicted" stock prices
and the collapse of Fannie/Freddie due to a housing "crisis"
that not EVERYBODY (but a lot of people) could see coming...

Here, I'll do it again, from even further back:

Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
From: "Bill Reid"
Date: Sun, 20 Apr 2003
Subject: So much for you "Cash is King" guys

....

This boom and bust cycle has been much bigger. If we
extrapolate from history, this real estate cycle could well
result in an average equity loss of several hundred $thousand, played
out over 12 to 15 years.

This is not a pleasant thought no matter what your actual
economic standing in the situation. You see, when things get
this extreme, it can completely destroy entire areas for generations.

The last time there was a general real estate collapse in the US
was during the Great Depression, and that is when we wound up
with the incredible blight of vast urban slums. Harlem and the
South Bronx were built in the roaring '20s with the idea that
there was an unlimited supply of wealthy people who would
buy homes just a short train ride from downtown Manhattan,
center of the economic universe.

Sixty years later some of these neighborhoods looked worse than
Dresden after the firebombing, after years of neglect by absentee
owners seriously underwater on their real estate "investments" and
angry abuse by residents without any possible economic stake
in maintaining them.

I don't think anybody wants that, particularly for the neighborhood
they live in. Unfortunately, the "invisible hand" sometimes
smacks you upside the head, and there just isn't anything you
can do about it...

---
William Ernest Reid

---end of archived article excerpt

So how does chaos figure into this? Well, here's another one:

Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
From: "Bill Reid"
Date: Wed, 27 Jul 2005 13:40:00 GMT
Subject: housing markets good for another 2 years :-)

Online Traveller wrote in message
.. .

The fall of 2007 is it, so try to sell your home anytime between now and
but
preferably closer to that time for maximum profit. At that time 20 years
after the '87 market crash should be another crash or dip in the markets
and
housing market. (don't buy the dip at that time however)

Don't forget the "Greenspan Indicator".

Greenspan said the stock market was displaying "irrational exuberance"
in 1996, and the market went up for another four years, even more
irrationally.

He just said the real estate market was "frothy". So look for house
prices to crash historically four years from now, in 2009, from a
median US average of about $750,000.

In the mean time enjoy:-)

Indeed. For the second time in the last decade, we're all gonna
be millionaires, if only for a few weeks!

....

---end of archived article excerpt

Chaos in the markets prevents us from calling exact tops and
bottoms, but simple math can tell us the size of the discrepancies
in the economy and the markets. As the discrepancies grow
ever larger, the trick is wait until there is a certain size of move
in the market to "correct" the discrepancy. At that point, you
can, with as much safety as you can ever have, make a market
trade to ride the TRUE trend to a relatively certain point in
the future.

The housing bubble was real, obvious, and really obvious to
anybody who wasn't in parochial denial about the situation or
just plain clueless as to how markets ALWAYS have worked.
That's why you can go back and read hundreds of posts in
this group from years past where people correctly called the
bubble and predicted the horrendous aftermath, just like
even earlier you could have read the same types of posts
about the NASDAQ bubble.

EVERY bubble is an opportunity to profit on the way up
and on the way down, particularly on the way down if you
follow the general trading rule I just described. Economic
bubbles are the very stuff of chaos, and yet, strangely somewhat
predictable, at least predictable enough for trading purposes...unless
of course, they shut down the markets, then everybody loses
everything in a flash...

So the panic happens.

However, if the economic system truly were about
to collapse, we'd know it.

A lot of people are saying that...as always, it's a debate, but
right now I think most people think a general collapse is inevitable...

It would be obvious as it
was in '29.

Man are you off-base...who told you that it was OBVIOUS that
the country would go into a Depression in 1929? Makes you wonder
why the market recovered almost to its former all-time high in early
1930...

The Great Depression was only OBVIOUS to EVERYBODY in
HINDSIGHT, not in the years preceeding it (1929 was a mild recession
year, but nothing like what was to come)...

There would be /little uncertainty/....if...
the economic system were about to collapse into
anarchy.

Some people are certain of it, some aren't...interestingly, our
"leaders" seem to be more sure of it than anybody. I think you're
just barking up the wrong tree here, your fact base has been
warped to fit your hypothesis...

If the panic is driven by uncertainty, the future is bright.

Markets always work on FEAR and GREED, everybody
knows that. We're in the FEAR mode now, but it COULD
get much worse before it gets "better"...

Those that survive this storm can expect an extended
period of stability and growth as a result of all the
new self correcting mechanisms being created.

We just came out of a period of "stability and growth"
due to the LACK of "self correcting mechanisms"...

You see now how Nature works? At the edge
the system spontaneously generates new problem
solving mechanisms....it Evolves and Creates
when pushed just to the brink.

Yeah, I've always thought the US would go commie in
the next few years, and lately we're about 1/3 of the way
there...

This is forcing many economic systems to begin
acting in concert. This is a force for merging the
world into a more complete and just whole.
Instead of countless little fiefdoms where all
kinds of harm flourish without bounds.

Many may instinctively fear a kind of One World Govt
taking hold. Not me. As that kind of government can only
be a result of the rule of the many over the few.
The world can only become a single entity if freedom
and connectivity flourish. As with the Internet taking
down one wall after another. With the collective
weight of the people becoming the "Ruler".

Freedom, and Nature, requires diversity....no walls.

I kinda remember you...you're kinda nutty...

I've heard they've got a great 13 point program.

13?

One better than a 12-step program...you may need
the extra step...

---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 1215

We are not even close to a bottom. Dow 6,000

"jonathan" wrote in message
. ..

I think we're close to, or at, the bottom, as once a /true panic/ takes
hold
it only takes a few days to play itself out. Anyone that hasn't sold by
now
is either clue-less, or resigned to go long.
Time to start bargain hunting!

I bet a dart board could return 20% over the next couple of weeks.


Good luck


Jonathan


s