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I can search the web and find many people who have
died in plane crashes, but, there's not one instance in recorded history of anyone dying in an asteroid impact...... makes that rather suspect.... This point can be exceedingly difficult to get across. Our instincts tell us that there cannot be big danger if there is no small danger. But in this case our instincts are WRONG. The earth's atmosphere shields us from all the little stuff. There are even cases on record of people being hit by a fist-sized meteorite, and surviving - because it was very much slowed down by the atmosphere. But the big danger is from the very rare, very large objects - say 100 meters or more - which punch through the atmosphere without being slowed down. They could kill millions of people. Multiply the probability of such an event (a very small number) by the number killed (a very large number.) You get a probablity of an *individual* being killed by meteor strike something on the or order of one in ten thousand. But there is another difference: If you die, your genes live on in your children and collateral relatives, and your culture lives on. But if you lose the whole ball of wax .... Ben |
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