News - North Korea warns of missile attack

On Sun, 15 Oct 2006 01:25:52 -0500, Pat Flannery wrote:

I think there's around a two-in-three chance that we are going to be in
a nuclear war with North Korea inside of a year.

I'm about to go to bed. It's always nice to read a cheerful note just before ;-)

North Korea has so far demonstrated that they can neither launch a long-range
missile nor detonate a nuclear weapon successfully. Who are you expecting to
fire the first shot in the imminent nuclear war?

Dale

Where is Janet Reno when you need her?

Dale wrote:

I'm about to go to bed. It's always nice to read a cheerful note just before ;-)

North Korea has so far demonstrated that they can neither launch a long-range
missile nor detonate a nuclear weapon successfully. Who are you expecting to
fire the first shot in the imminent nuclear war?




Good night, and good luck.
Sooner or later, this happens.
The smoke came out of that particular brass lamp about the time Leo
Slizard saw the phosphors on his display screen light up, and realized
that H.G. Wells' story "The World Set Free" was a very profound, and
terribly accurate, prophecy.
I think we are about to head into that "great deal of trouble'" as
Slizard called it.

Pat

On Sun, 15 Oct 2006 03:57:37 -0700, Dale wrote:

On Sun, 15 Oct 2006 01:25:52 -0500, Pat Flannery wrote:

I think there's around a two-in-three chance that we are going to be in
a nuclear war with North Korea inside of a year.

I'm about to go to bed. It's always nice to read a cheerful note just before ;-)

North Korea has so far demonstrated that they can neither launch a long-range
missile nor detonate a nuclear weapon successfully. Who are you expecting to
fire the first shot in the imminent nuclear war?

Dale

Where is Janet Reno when you need her?

So you think Kim is going to shoot himself in the foot, or worse?

On Sun, 15 Oct 2006 15:36:13 GMT, Alan Jones wrote:

So you think Kim is going to shoot himself in the foot, or worse?

Oh, I don't know. He's managed to pretty much isolate himself
himself from the rest of the world, save a few fellow nutters. The
missile and nuclear programs can't be cheap, for a country as
impoverished as North Korea is. I don't think we should ignore
him- attention will probably pacify him a bit. I hope the cultural
exchanges with the South can continue somehow.

I think the solution will come from the North Korean people. I
doubt they are a bunch of brainwashed robots. And the worse
things get domestically, and the more irrational he becomes,
the greater the chance some slightly more enlightened people
in power will decide to get rid of him. He may well end up in
some posh exile somewhere. Who knows?

I just don't share Pat's notion that a nuclear war is coming soon.
Should Kim lob a nuke off into the the Pacific with the intention
of doing anybody harm, I suspect that a few days later North Korea
will involuntarily become the 23rd (or 24th, depending on your view
of Taiwan) province of China. And we won't say a thing.

Dale

On Sun, 15 Oct 2006 23:32:19 -0700, Dale wrote:


I think the solution will come from the North Korean people. I
doubt they are a bunch of brainwashed robots.

The NK people in the military parade look robotic to me, or maybe just
digitally created.

And the worse
things get domestically, and the more irrational he becomes,
the greater the chance some slightly more enlightened people
in power will decide to get rid of him. He may well end up in
some posh exile somewhere. Who knows?\

I don't expect them to look at South Korea and say, "Yes, let's be a
democracy". I don't expect Iran, et. al., to look at The Iraq
democracy and say, "Yes, let's be like them."

I just don't share Pat's notion that a nuclear war is coming soon.
Should Kim lob a nuke off into the the Pacific with the intention
of doing anybody harm, I suspect that a few days later North Korea
will involuntarily become the 23rd (or 24th, depending on your view
of Taiwan) province of China. And we won't say a thing.

I think the US people would say, "Thank you very much."

Dale

Dale wrote:

I just don't share Pat's notion that a nuclear war is coming soon.
Should Kim lob a nuke off into the the Pacific with the intention
of doing anybody harm, I suspect that a few days later North Korea
will involuntarily become the 23rd (or 24th, depending on your view
of Taiwan) province of China. And we won't say a thing.


I'd be more concerned about him taking a potshot at our forces in South
Korea or Japan rather than the U.S. itself.

Pat

Dale wrote:

What would the PRC want with the slag heap that used to be called North Korea after Kim
pops a nuke (even a failed strike on the ROK, Japan, or U.S. territory)? Because even a
miss that results in a detonation will mean our bombers and missiles will fly in reprisal. 20 or
so minutes for a Trident-II from the NorPac patrol area.....6-8 hours for a B-52 or B-2 from
CONUS with bombs and ALCMs. Even if Kim doesn't know (or care) some of his generals no
doubt do.

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On Mon, 16 Oct 2006 19:05:10 -0500, "Matt Wiser"
wrote:

Dale wrote:

What would the PRC want with the slag heap that used to be called North Korea after Kim
pops a nuke (even a failed strike on the ROK, Japan, or U.S. territory)? Because even a
miss that results in a detonation will mean our bombers and missiles will fly in reprisal. 20 or
so minutes for a Trident-II from the NorPac patrol area.....6-8 hours for a B-52 or B-2 from
CONUS with bombs and ALCMs. Even if Kim doesn't know (or care) some of his generals no
doubt do.

I think the point was that the PRK would try to beat us to the punch,
just to save us the trouble, and save themselves from that bigger
problem.

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On Mon, 16 Oct 2006 19:05:10 -0500, "Matt Wiser" wrote:

What would the PRC want with the slag heap that used to be called North Korea after Kim
pops a nuke (even a failed strike on the ROK, Japan, or U.S. territory)? Because even a
miss that results in a detonation will mean our bombers and missiles will fly in reprisal. 20 or
so minutes for a Trident-II from the NorPac patrol area.....6-8 hours for a B-52 or B-2 from
CONUS with bombs and ALCMs. Even if Kim doesn't know (or care) some of his generals no
doubt do.

Although that could be done to set an example to others who might be considering
the same move, rational deterrence probably wouldn't have much effect on the
irrational.

Turning North Korea into glass would affect our nearby allies. Hell, the fallout
would probably carry to my house, near Seattle. We already get pollution from
China here.

In addition to the environmental consequences, think about how easily such a
response could be spun into making the US the bad guys. Assuming we are rational,
I don't think we'd respond in that way. I guess that may be a big assumption

I post OT too much as it is. I'll just leave it with that.

Dale

Did OM write "make love, not war"? Pat's right- the end must be near :-)

"Matt Wiser" wrote in message
...
Dale wrote:

What would the PRC want with the slag heap that used to be called North
Korea after Kim
pops a nuke (even a failed strike on the ROK, Japan, or U.S. territory)?
Because even a
miss that results in a detonation will mean our bombers and missiles will
fly in reprisal. 20 or
so minutes for a Trident-II from the NorPac patrol area.....6-8 hours for
a B-52 or B-2 from
CONUS with bombs and ALCMs. Even if Kim doesn't know (or care) some of his
generals no
doubt do.

Nukes are like Douglas Adams's Supernova Bomb. The known consequences of
setting the bomb off are always going to be worse than the unknown
consequences of not setting it off.