Sedna, space probes?, colonies? what's next?

Rand Simberg wrote:

On Sat, 20 Mar 2004 00:00:10 GMT, in a place far, far away,
lid (John Savard) made the phosphor on
my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

If humanity has any value, then twice as much has twice the value. If
humanity doesn't have any value to you, then do you propose that we
exterminate ourselves?

If it becomes possible to support additional humans in comfort and
peace and happiness, then I am for it.

That is clearly possible. Or at least as "clearly" as your next
proposition.

Right *now*, however, there is
a great amount of poverty, even in the wealthiest nations. Clearly,
our population is much larger than can be effectively accomodated on
Earth with our present technological level.

That is not clear at all. Your conclusion doesn't follow from your
premise.

We are presently heavily dependent on "phantom carrying capacity"
created by the one-time bonanza of fossil fuels like petroleum. The
petroleum will probably run out sometime around the middle of the
century, and replacing it with renewable sources will be very difficult
and enormously expensive. I recommend a book called "Overshoot..." by
Catton, which may clear up some things.

Poverty is largely caused by misgovernment, not by overpopulation per
se, even at our current technology level.

On Sat, 20 Mar 2004 01:16:04 GMT, in a place far, far away, Dick
Morris made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Right *now*, however, there is
a great amount of poverty, even in the wealthiest nations. Clearly,
our population is much larger than can be effectively accomodated on
Earth with our present technological level.

That is not clear at all. Your conclusion doesn't follow from your
premise.

We are presently heavily dependent on "phantom carrying capacity"
created by the one-time bonanza of fossil fuels like petroleum.

That's like saying that in the early nineteenth century, we were
"heavily dependent on the one-time bonanza of fossil fuels like coal."

The petroleum will probably run out sometime around the middle of the
century, and replacing it with renewable sources will be very difficult
and enormously expensive.

And as that occurs (if it does), its price will rise, resulting in
increased research into replacements.

I recommend a book called "Overshoot..." by
Catton, which may clear up some things.

I doubt it.

Poverty is largely caused by misgovernment, not by overpopulation per
se, even at our current technology level.

I see you didn't have a response to this.

Rand Simberg wrote:

And as that occurs (if it does), its price will rise, resulting in
increased research into replacements.


You wouldn't want to say provide a pointer to a similarily widespread
technology being replaced because of price concerns, instead of it and
related industries simply dieing out?

--
Sander

+++ Out of cheese error +++

On Sat, 20 Mar 2004 02:59:37 +0000 (UTC), in a place far, far away,
Sander Vesik made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Rand Simberg wrote:

And as that occurs (if it does), its price will rise, resulting in
increased research into replacements.


You wouldn't want to say provide a pointer to a similarily widespread
technology being replaced because of price concerns, instead of it and
related industries simply dieing out?

Coal.

Whale Oil.

Analog telecom switching systems.

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Sat, 20 Mar 2004 02:59:37 +0000 (UTC), in a place far, far away,
Sander Vesik made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Rand Simberg wrote:

And as that occurs (if it does), its price will rise, resulting in
increased research into replacements.


You wouldn't want to say provide a pointer to a similarily widespread
technology being replaced because of price concerns, instead of it and
related industries simply dieing out?

Coal.

The other two are fine, but coal is still a pretty serious industry and will
continue to be so for a long while to come.

Whale Oil.

Analog telecom switching systems.

On Sat, 20 Mar 2004 15:49:57 GMT, in a place far, far away, "Dave
O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM atomicrazor . com made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

You wouldn't want to say provide a pointer to a similarily widespread
technology being replaced because of price concerns, instead of it and
related industries simply dieing out?

Coal.

The other two are fine, but coal is still a pretty serious industry and will
continue to be so for a long while to come.

But many of its original uses have been replaced. For instance, no
one (at least in the US) any longer heats homes with it.

ut many of its original uses have been replaced. For instance, no
one (at least in the US) any longer heats homes with it.


Are you positive about that?

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message ...
On Sat, 20 Mar 2004 02:59:37 +0000 (UTC), in a place far, far away,
Sander Vesik made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:
Rand Simberg wrote:

And as that occurs (if it does), its price will rise, resulting in
increased research into replacements.

You wouldn't want to say provide a pointer to a similarily widespread
technology being replaced because of price concerns, instead of it and
related industries simply dieing out?

Coal.

Whale Oil.

Analog telecom switching systems.

Galley slaves.

(The Romans knew the principle of steam power but had no economic in-
centive of developing it. It took a while, however--even after the
fall of the Roman Empire--because at first they were replaced by a
bleeding-heart liberal flower-power religion, who thought simple love
and understanding could solve all the woes and ills in the world. It
took a few plagues and crusades to eventually get back on track...)


--
__ "A good leader knows when it's best to ignore the __
('__` screams for help and focus on the bigger picture." '__`)
//6(6; ©OOL mmiv :^)^\\
`\_-/ http://home.t-online.de/home/ulrich....lmann/redbaron \-_/'

Perhaps a long out of print book, The Real Futu Tomorrow's Technology
Today, by T. A. Heppenheimer (ca. 1983) might be of interest. Although it is
out of print, perhaps some of the booksellers might have it in their used
books departments. Hamilton Bookseller in NYC might be able to help.

Classic example, and tying into the present thread, viz.:

"It is important to appreciate the fact that there is no such thing as
Spaceship Earth. Certainly there is a worldwide trade in food and other
commodities, and a drought in the Punjab may jiggle grain prices on the
Chicago Board of Trade. But our world is one of sovereign nations, the
governments of which -- and not we ourselves -- are responsible for their
peoples. Some of these leaders are interested in promoting domestic economic
growth. Others seek to build up their militry forces and acquire advanced
weapons. Still others pursue idological designs or agitate for international
redistribution of income. But it is their own people who in the main must
put up with these enthusiams, suffer the excesses of a murderous Idi Amin
Dada in Uganda or a fanatical Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. The rest of the
world has a way of going on as before. When a nation falls behind in its
development or fails to meet its Five Year Plan, it is not the victim of
neocolonization or of some plot hatched among the rich nations. The fault
lies in its own capital city." (And in its own Presidential Palace or
equivalent executive residence.)

--
Leonard C Robinson
"The Historian Remembers, and speculates on what might have been.
"The Visionary Remembers, and speculates on what may yet be."