Reconsideration

OK, I've had a long day, I'm coming down with a cold, and I'm tired,
but I've got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over.

I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the
failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and
disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private
space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to
question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up
the new frontier.

I've come to realize that we do in fact have launch systems that work,
most of the time, even if they're expensive. We have a space station,
if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it, and start to
turn it to the useful ends for which it was intended. Shuttle is
risky, but any new frontier is risky. We need to work hard to continue
to minimize the risk of losing our priceless astronauts, even if we
don't fly it for another three years. We have a president with a
vision, a Congress willing to support it to a degree, and a new NASA
administrator (a genuine rocket scientist--something we've never
before had as a NASA administrator, and isn't it about time?) with
great ideas about how to get us back to the moon quickly (or as
quickly as the stingy folks on the Hill are willing to fund).

Maybe it's just because I'm getting old, or don't feel well, but I
know now that relying on guys in garages, operating on shoestrings, is
never going to get us into space. The skeptics are right--Rutan's done
nothing except replicate what NASA did over forty years ago.

Furthermore, I realize now that it's not important that I get into
space myself--what's important is that the opportunity is there for my
children. Or my grandchildren. Or my great-grand children. It may take
a long time, because we know that space is hard.

What's important is that we have to keep striving, keep supporting
these vital efforts, never let our interest flag or wane, in getting
our people back to the moon, and on to Mars, no matter how long it
takes, no matter how much it costs. Yes, it costs a lot, but we are a
great country, and a rich one. There are so many other things that the
government wastes money on, it's very frustrating that we can't get
the support we need to ensure that this NASA human spaceflight
program, critical not just to our nation's future, but to that of
humanity, can't move faster. I now realize that Mark Whittington is
right, and that there's a very real chance that the Chinese will beat
us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we
must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever
it takes.

Ad Astra, and good night.

Rand Simberg wrote:

I now realize that Mark Whittington is
right, and that there's a very real chance that the Chinese will beat
us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we
must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever
it takes.



First off, at the rate they are moving, the Chinese will be on the moon
around 2025 if at all.
Second, being up there doesn't give them the "strategic high ground" due
to the time it would take anything to reach the Earth that was fired
from the Moon. In fact, if you want to worry about the Chinese high
ground scenario, watch out for stuff in Earth orbit, not way out on the
Moon.
Who knows? SpaceX's next launch attempt might work, although their whole
Falcon program up to the moment has a distinctly amateurish feel to it
that I don't think bodes any too well for its ultimate success.

Pat

Pat Flannery wrote in
:

Rand Simberg wrote:

I now realize that Mark Whittington is
right, and that there's a very real chance that the Chinese will beat
us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we
must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever
it takes.

First off, at the rate they are moving, the Chinese will be on the moon
around 2025 if at all.
Second, being up there doesn't give them the "strategic high ground" due
to the time it would take anything to reach the Earth that was fired
from the Moon. In fact, if you want to worry about the Chinese high
ground scenario, watch out for stuff in Earth orbit, not way out on the
Moon.

Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools
post.


--
JRF

Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail,
check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and
think one step ahead of IBM.

On Mon, 03 Apr 2006 21:36:14 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Jorge
R. Frank" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

Pat Flannery wrote in
:

Rand Simberg wrote:

I now realize that Mark Whittington is
right, and that there's a very real chance that the Chinese will beat
us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we
must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever
it takes.

First off, at the rate they are moving, the Chinese will be on the moon
around 2025 if at all.
Second, being up there doesn't give them the "strategic high ground" due
to the time it would take anything to reach the Earth that was fired
from the Moon. In fact, if you want to worry about the Chinese high
ground scenario, watch out for stuff in Earth orbit, not way out on the
Moon.

Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools
post.

Pat's always been a little slow on the uptake, albeit amusingly so...

Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools
post.

He had me going up until about paragraph 3 or so (I think "We have a
space station, if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it"
was about when I stopped asking myself, "gee, what has Rand gotten
disillusioned about and what new direction does he see?").

Jorge R. Frank wrote:

Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools
post.



Ah, he got me fair and square on that one! I thought the whole
"Conversion On The Road To Damascus" scenario was a bit unlikely, but
considered he might have gotten a job with a major aerospace firm, and
was now going to start writing propaganda pieces for them.
I really get a kick out of April Fool's day... where else does one find
a day which is specifically set aside to encourage the telling of lies
and the misleading of people? Outside of one of Bush's State Of The
Union speeches, that is. :-D

Pat

Jim Kingdon wrote:

Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools
post.



He had me going up until about paragraph 3 or so (I think "We have a
space station, if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it"
was about when I stopped asking myself, "gee, what has Rand gotten
disillusioned about and what new direction does he see?").


I was actually feeling sorry for him, but twas all a sham.
Live and learn.

Pat

On Tue, 04 Apr 2006 17:20:32 -0400, in a place far, far away, Pat
Flannery made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

Jorge R. Frank wrote:

Umm, maybe you haven't realized it yet, but that was Rand's April Fools
post.



Ah, he got me fair and square on that one! I thought the whole
"Conversion On The Road To Damascus" scenario was a bit unlikely, but
considered he might have gotten a job with a major aerospace firm, and
was now going to start writing propaganda pieces for them.

Actually, I am making my living right now off a major aerospace firm,
though as a consultant. It's in fact not in my financial interest for
CEV to die, but I still think that it's a misbegotten program.

Rand Simberg wrote:

Actually, I am making my living right now off a major aerospace firm,
though as a consultant. It's in fact not in my financial interest for
CEV to die, but I still think that it's a misbegotten program.



I think the odds of CEV ever getting built and heading Moonwards are
fairly slim.
We are running one hell of a deficit, and NASA looks like a juicy target
when budget cuts come along.
The scenario I think NASA should watch out for is losing a Shuttle on
one of its few last flights- the reaction to that would be so severe
that it might pretty well annihilate the agency.

Pat

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
OK, I've had a long day, I'm coming down with a cold, and I'm tired,
but I've got one more post before I go to bed, and the day is over.

I've been really depressed for the last week as a result of the
failure of the SpaceX launch attempt. It was a major blow and
disappointment not just to SpaceX, but to the whole notion of private
space. I've gone through a lot of soul searching, and am starting to
question everything I thought I believed about the best way to open up
the new frontier.

I've come to realize that we do in fact have launch systems that work,
most of the time, even if they're expensive. We have a space station,
if we could just muster up the gumption to finish it, and start to
turn it to the useful ends for which it was intended. Shuttle is
risky, but any new frontier is risky. We need to work hard to continue
to minimize the risk of losing our priceless astronauts, even if we
don't fly it for another three years. We have a president with a
vision, a Congress willing to support it to a degree, and a new NASA
administrator (a genuine rocket scientist--something we've never
before had as a NASA administrator, and isn't it about time?) with
great ideas about how to get us back to the moon quickly (or as
quickly as the stingy folks on the Hill are willing to fund).

Maybe it's just because I'm getting old, or don't feel well, but I
know now that relying on guys in garages, operating on shoestrings, is
never going to get us into space. The skeptics are right--Rutan's done
nothing except replicate what NASA did over forty years ago.

Furthermore, I realize now that it's not important that I get into
space myself--what's important is that the opportunity is there for my
children. Or my grandchildren. Or my great-grand children. It may take
a long time, because we know that space is hard.

What's important is that we have to keep striving, keep supporting
these vital efforts, never let our interest flag or wane, in getting
our people back to the moon, and on to Mars, no matter how long it
takes, no matter how much it costs. Yes, it costs a lot, but we are a
great country, and a rich one. There are so many other things that the
government wastes money on, it's very frustrating that we can't get
the support we need to ensure that this NASA human spaceflight
program, critical not just to our nation's future, but to that of
humanity, can't move faster. I now realize that Mark Whittington is
right, and that there's a very real chance that the Chinese will beat
us to the moon, and lay claim to the strategic high ground. But we
must accept that, and work to change that potential outcome, whatever
it takes.

Ad Astra, and good night.

You have convinced me. I'll start supporting the real space programs now.