market size as a function of launcher size

If there is going to be a HLLV (defined as a launcher capable of placing
40Mt+i nto LEO) in the future which one of the following will
be the first customer? BRBR


The only thing I can think of that is even slightly likely to happen soon to
make the HLLV a going proposition is the space-based laser. IF it's built,
indididual lasers will weigh 40 tons or more by some estimates. You can either
build a heavy-lift or do on-orbit assembly. If I were in charge, I would build
the heavy lifter as the simpler and probably cheaper long-term solution.


Matt Bille
)
OPINIONS IN ALL POSTS ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR

MattWriter wrote in message
...
If there is going to be a HLLV (defined as a launcher capable of
placing
40Mt+i nto LEO) in the future which one of the following will
be the first customer? BRBR


The only thing I can think of that is even slightly likely to happen soon
to
make the HLLV a going proposition is the space-based laser. IF it's built,
indididual lasers will weigh 40 tons or more by some estimates. You can
either
build a heavy-lift or do on-orbit assembly. If I were in charge, I would
build
the heavy lifter as the simpler and probably cheaper long-term solution.


I tend to agree. The experimental SBL which is being worked weights 20
tonnes.
The deployable satellite is bound to be bigger.

The SBL project is ticking along at a slow pace at the moment with only
10-20% of
the funding originally requested. (have a look at www.highfrontier.org for
more details) I'll be interested to see what happens if the Chinese move
substantially into space. If the US felt that Chinese space power was a
threat to American space systems there would be a case for the early
deployment of SBL to maintain US control of Space.

ta

Ralph