Asteroid 2003 QQ47's Potential Earth Impact in 2014 Ruled Out

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov

Asteroid 2003 QQ47's Potential Earth Impact in 2014 Ruled Out

Paul W. Chodas and Steven R. Chesley
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
September 3, 2003

Newly discovered asteroid 2003 QQ47 has received considerable media
attention over the last few days because it had a small chance of
colliding with the Earth in the year 2014 and was rated a "1" on
the Torino impact hazard scale, which goes from 0 to 10. The odds
of collision in 2014, as estimated by JPL's Sentry impact
monitoring system, peaked at 1 chance in 250,000, a result which
was posted on our Impact Risk Page (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risko) o
n Saturday, August 30. Impact events at the Torino Scale 1 level
certainly merit careful monitoring by astronomers, but these events
do not warrant public concern. In fact, each year several
newly discovered asteroids reach Torino Scale 1 for a brief period
after discovery; 2003 QQ47 is the fourth such case this year.

As astronomers continue to monitor an asteroid and measure its
position, more precise predictions can be made. On September 2,
new measurements of QQ47's position allowed us to narrow our
prediction of its path in 2014, and thus we could rule out any
Earth impact possibilities for 2014. In our Impact Risk Page for
2003 QQ47, the entry for the year 2014 has now disappeared,
although a number of potential impact events remain for later
years. We expect that these too will be ruled out in the coming
days as astronomers continue to track the object and we refine
our orbit predictions.

These seemingly large day-to-day changes in impact predictions for
newly discovered asteroids are just what we expect. In the few days
after an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit is known only very
approximately. The range of possible positions in future years is
wide and can easily encompass the Earth, but as the object continues
to be tracked, the range of possibilities shrinks quickly, allowing
us to rule out any possibility of impact. This process is ongoing
for 2003 QQ47, and could take days or even weeks before all potential
impacts are ruled out.

As astronomers continue to monitor an asteroid and measure its
position, more precise predictions can be made. On September 2,
new measurements of QQ47's position allowed us to narrow our
prediction of its path in 2014, and thus we could rule out any
Earth impact possibilities for 2014. In our Impact Risk Page for
2003 QQ47, the entry for the year 2014 has now disappeared,
although a number of potential impact events remain for later
years. We expect that these too will be ruled out in the coming
days as astronomers continue to track the object and we refine
our orbit predictions.

So what happened to all the years between 2014 and 2060? Did those disappear
too? The web page had a continuous display from 2003 until almost 2100, now a
big chunk of time is missing.

Is this because the uncertainties are still being worked out?

The funny part is when I ran this one in their simulator it looked more like
it would hit mars than the earth.

"Ron Baalke" wrote in message
...
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov

Asteroid 2003 QQ47's Potential Earth Impact in 2014 Ruled Out

Paul W. Chodas and Steven R. Chesley
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
September 3, 2003

Newly discovered asteroid 2003 QQ47 has received considerable media
attention over the last few days because it had a small chance of
colliding with the Earth in the year 2014 and was rated a "1" on
the Torino impact hazard scale, which goes from 0 to 10. The odds
of collision in 2014, as estimated by JPL's Sentry impact
monitoring system, peaked at 1 chance in 250,000, a result which
was posted on our Impact Risk Page (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risko) o
n Saturday, August 30. Impact events at the Torino Scale 1 level
certainly merit careful monitoring by astronomers, but these events
do not warrant public concern. In fact, each year several
newly discovered asteroids reach Torino Scale 1 for a brief period
after discovery; 2003 QQ47 is the fourth such case this year.

As astronomers continue to monitor an asteroid and measure its
position, more precise predictions can be made. On September 2,
new measurements of QQ47's position allowed us to narrow our
prediction of its path in 2014, and thus we could rule out any
Earth impact possibilities for 2014. In our Impact Risk Page for
2003 QQ47, the entry for the year 2014 has now disappeared,
although a number of potential impact events remain for later
years. We expect that these too will be ruled out in the coming
days as astronomers continue to track the object and we refine
our orbit predictions.

These seemingly large day-to-day changes in impact predictions for
newly discovered asteroids are just what we expect. In the few days
after an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit is known only very
approximately. The range of possible positions in future years is
wide and can easily encompass the Earth, but as the object continues
to be tracked, the range of possibilities shrinks quickly, allowing
us to rule out any possibility of impact. This process is ongoing
for 2003 QQ47, and could take days or even weeks before all potential
impacts are ruled out.

.. wrote:

The funny part is when I ran this one in their simulator it looked more like
it would hit mars than the earth.

Hmmm, I wonder if anyone takes the trouble to look for likely
impactors for Mars, or even Venus. If one did happen it might do a
lot to wake people (i.e. governments) up to the dangers of an Earth
impact.

It would certainly show the effects of an impact in a very close up
and spectacular way - much more relevant than the Shoemaker-Levy 9
collision with Jupiter.

DP

--
David_Paterson = ¦ ;

Senior programmer There are three kinds of people in the world -
Visual Science Ltd. those who can count, and those who can't...

Hi David,
You know how I know when to panic about an inpact.. When the
astronomers start quiting their jobs, taking flights to Tahiti, and
maxing out the credit cards. Then I will worry. : )

Sonya

wrote in message . ..
.. wrote:

The funny part is when I ran this one in their simulator it looked more like
it would hit mars than the earth.

Hmmm, I wonder if anyone takes the trouble to look for likely
impactors for Mars, or even Venus. If one did happen it might do a
lot to wake people (i.e. governments) up to the dangers of an Earth
impact.

It would certainly show the effects of an impact in a very close up
and spectacular way - much more relevant than the Shoemaker-Levy 9
collision with Jupiter.

DP

Bill Duncan wrote:

In article , Sonya
wrote:

Hi David,
You know how I know when to panic about an inpact.. When the
astronomers start quiting their jobs, taking flights to Tahiti, and
maxing out the credit cards. Then I will worry. : )

Sonya

I'll start to panic when I see astronomers buying rounds for the bar.
Bill.

Oof! That was below the belt. I'll have you know I'm always willing
to stand my turn.

If you're ever near my place in Scotland I'll buy you one too, thus
disproving the mean astronomers and mean scots myths in one go )

DP

--
David_Paterson = ¦ ;

Senior programmer There are three kinds of people in the world -
Visual Science Ltd. those who can count, and those who can't...

(Ron Baalke) wrote in message ...
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov

Asteroid 2003 QQ47's Potential Earth Impact in 2014 Ruled Out

Paul W. Chodas and Steven R. Chesley
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
September 3, 2003

Newly discovered asteroid 2003 QQ47 has received considerable media
attention over the last few days because it had a small chance of
colliding with the Earth in the year 2014 and was rated a "1" on
the Torino impact hazard scale, which goes from 0 to 10. The odds
of collision in 2014, as estimated by JPL's Sentry impact
monitoring system, peaked at 1 chance in 250,000, a result which
was posted on our Impact Risk Page (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risko) o
n Saturday, August 30. Impact events at the Torino Scale 1 level
certainly merit careful monitoring by astronomers, but these events
do not warrant public concern. In fact, each year several
newly discovered asteroids reach Torino Scale 1 for a brief period
after discovery; 2003 QQ47 is the fourth such case this year.

As astronomers continue to monitor an asteroid and measure its
position, more precise predictions can be made. On September 2,
new measurements of QQ47's position allowed us to narrow our
prediction of its path in 2014, and thus we could rule out any
Earth impact possibilities for 2014. In our Impact Risk Page for
2003 QQ47, the entry for the year 2014 has now disappeared,
although a number of potential impact events remain for later
years. We expect that these too will be ruled out in the coming
days as astronomers continue to track the object and we refine
our orbit predictions.

These seemingly large day-to-day changes in impact predictions for
newly discovered asteroids are just what we expect. In the few days
after an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit is known only very
approximately. The range of possible positions in future years is
wide and can easily encompass the Earth, but as the object continues
to be tracked, the range of possibilities shrinks quickly, allowing
us to rule out any possibility of impact. This process is ongoing
for 2003 QQ47, and could take days or even weeks before all potential
impacts are ruled out.

I think that real worry are those asteroids in the NeoDys Risk page
which orbital parameters have been measured accurately and are
also lost at the moment like:

1995CS (size 30 m - 60 m), 2002CB19 (size 30 m - 60 m) and
2003DW10 (size 10 m - 40 m).

Orbits diagrams shows on which side of the Earth they could collide
in due time 2050 ?

Please take a look Near Earth Objects - Dynamic Site
(NeoDys Risk page):

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/ne...iskpage:0;main

Hannu

It's not "ALL" about the Scotts. Now I understand the meaning of
Scottsgaurd.

wrote in message
...
Bill Duncan wrote:

In article , Sonya
wrote:

Hi David,
You know how I know when to panic about an inpact.. When the
astronomers start quiting their jobs, taking flights to Tahiti, and
maxing out the credit cards. Then I will worry. : )

Sonya

I'll start to panic when I see astronomers buying rounds for the bar.
Bill.

Oof! That was below the belt. I'll have you know I'm always willing
to stand my turn.

If you're ever near my place in Scotland I'll buy you one too, thus
disproving the mean astronomers and mean scots myths in one go )

DP

--
David_Paterson = ¦
;

Senior programmer There are three kinds of people in the world -
Visual Science Ltd. those who can count, and those who can't...