Past Perfect, Future Misleading

"Hop David" wrote in message
...


Rand Simberg wrote:
I have some more commentary on the Gehman report, and why we should
not build "the" next generation launch system.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95930,00.html

In this case need for such a railroad became obvious after gold was
found in California. I guess you could call the California Gold Rush the
"The Killer App" that made the transcontinental railroad float.

I've seen vague speculation on a space tourism industry. But is this the
killer app that will capture public imagination? It's hard to image Joe
Taxpayer writing his congressmen to give incentives to Carmack, Boeing
or whoever to establish LEO resorts.

The concept of finding a "Killer App" in any public forum is flawed.
If some concept is flawed, then it is not a KA. If some concept is
obviously profitable beyond your wildest dreams, then it is still
flawed in that too many entrants to a field can kill the individual
profit margins. If it is obvious to a thousand entrants, 90+%
of them will not turn a profit in any field with realistic limits.
How many ways can you divide a $50B space tourism industry
before it becomes non profitable? What happens to the 25th
entrant to the field with no orriginal ideas?

I once read that most of the fortunes in California were made by the
people that serviced the miners rather than the miners themselves.
Most of them stayed broke. This is hearsay evidence.

The high profit KAs will be closely held industry
secrets until such time as they are applied. The major
profits can be fairly predicted as being made in the niches
by companies in fields that most people cannot see the
potential of. I have 3 friends localy that have each become
millionaires in the last 10 years. Each of them exploited
a niche in an apparently saturated market that was
invisable to most people, including myself.

It is my opinion that vast fortunes will be made in the space business
arena. They will be made by people that run hard business plans
based on proprietary experience. They will not be made by people
on the outside looking for a perfect "Killer App" before risking
a dime.

This is not a personal shot at you or your post. It is a comment
on a widespread meme that I consider flawed.

I find the idea of incentives to private industry interesting. But would
like to know more about what goals such incentives would accomplish.

Hop
http://clowder.net/hop/index.html