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#121
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
I know you are, but what am I?
"Chris.B" wrote in : On Wednesday, 18 October 2017 20:19:14 UTC+2, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: snip Absence of basic understanding of quotation and bottom posting? Obsessed with sexual imagery and boasts a permanent stain in his signature bedding? An immature, narcissistic, perverted, fascist, religious hypocrite? All the ideal qualities of modern leadership. Should go far! -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#122
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Wednesday, 18 October 2017 20:19:14 UTC+2, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote:
snip the usual drivel The latest news is that polymers are being rapidly developed to allow present liquid batteries to become solid. Thus removing the volatility and dangers of fire and explosion associated with some popular rechargeable batteries. The polymer technology is expected to make rapid progress leading to early adoption. There is also a new carbon based battery which is looking very promising. Mankind's brightest has always provided an answer to our specific needs. Vastly more scientists, inventors and engineers are working today than at any time in human history. So, why aren't you? |
#123
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
"Chris.B" wrote in
: On Wednesday, 18 October 2017 20:19:14 UTC+2, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: snip the usual drivel The latest news is that polymers are being rapidly developed to allow present liquid batteries to become solid. Thus removing the volatility and dangers of fire and explosion associated with some popular rechargeable batteries. The polymer technology is expected to make rapid progress leading to early adoption. There is also a new carbon based battery which is looking very promising. Mankind's brightest has always provided an answer to our specific needs. Vastly more scientists, inventors and engineers are working today than at any time in human history. So, why aren't you? Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up very well. http://tinyurl.com/y8q43uau http://driving.ca/auto-news/news/mot...-inconvenient- truths-on-banning-gas-engines? utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=lin k&ICID=ref_fark The short version: A gas station with 16 pumps (and there are a lot of those) would need 960 charging stations (coting $40,000 each) using current 50 kW technology. Porche is working ona 350 kW charging station, so that would reduce it to 128 stations (costing $200,000 each). The 350 kW stations run so hot the charging cable has to be liquid cooled (and if anything goes wrong, it *will* explode). To equal the fuel time for a gasoline car for a 400 mile trip - to simply transfer the amount of energy necessary to go that far - would require a 3 *megawatt* charging station. That 16 pump station would also need a 30 megawatt power line coming in. That's _every_ _gas_ _station_ _in_ _the_ _country_. There are 168,000 places in the US that sell gasoline. If we assume they have an average of 8 pumps each (which is a reasonable average), that's a quarter of a *trillion* dollars just for the charging stations. And note that this is all *in* *addition* *to* existing generating (and distributing) infrastructure (since most of the charging will be at peak hours). It would take generations to build the grid to distribut that much power. The only feasible way would be for each gas station to have it's own mini-nuke plant. And according to the commonly accepted formula for comparison of energy costs, for my 40 mpg Toyota to be replaced with a Tesla, that uses 3 kWH/mile (which seems to be about as good as it gets for passenger cars), electricity would have to cost 6 cents a kWH to be the same price just for the energy (never mind having to pay for the equivalent of a new engine every ten years). Currently, the cheapest, off-hour price around here is 16. So enjoy smoking your Kool-Aid, son. Your fantasies aren't going to happen. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#124
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote: Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up very well. Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to rise, while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. It ignores that the demand for gasoline cars will decline and the demand for electric cars will increase. It ignores the fact that most people won't need fueling stations for the vast majority of their fueling. It ignores that there WILL be significant improvements in charging and electrical storage technology. It ignores that countries will regulate non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes. It looks at things as they currently are and imagines that nothing significant will change. Talk about heads in the sand! |
#125
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
Chris L Peterson wrote in
: On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up very well. Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to rise, The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have become skeptical. while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a minimum, seveal times as long to charge up. It ignores that countries will regulate non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes. That may well happen, but that's not the same as replacing gasoline powered cars. That's social engineering to force people to stay close to home. Which europe has done a lot of for decades. The US doesn't respond well to that, and California in particular has a history of getting rid of politicians who **** with cars (ask Gray Davis). Pure fantasy, of the sort the liberals maturbate over a lot (like violently overthrowing the Trump administration, when one side is armed with 200 million guns, and the other side with man buns and pussy hats). Keep smoking that Kool-Aid, son. People like you are the reason Tump is in the White House, and will be for a second term if he wants, and Democrats won't be, and won't control either house of Congress, for a least a generation. You're literally hallucinating the world you need to exist, because you're too weak and stupid to deal with the one that does. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#126
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 14:57:50 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote: Chris L Peterson wrote in : On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up very well. Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to rise, The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have become skeptical. The long term trend HAS been a steady rise. while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a minimum, seveal times as long to charge up. You seem to have ignored the part about not needing to fuel at a station. The vast majority of users will fuel at home, overnight, or at work while parked. And those who do use stations will seldom need to charge fully. It ignores that countries will regulate non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes. That may well happen, but that's not the same as replacing gasoline powered cars. That's social engineering to force people to stay close to home. Which europe has done a lot of for decades. The US doesn't respond well to that, and California in particular has a history of getting rid of politicians who **** with cars (ask Gray Davis). It doesn't matter if the car companies aren't making gasoline cars. You're going to feel pretty stupid in 20 years when most of the vehicles are electric. |
#127
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
Chris L Peterson wrote in
: On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 14:57:50 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Chris L Peterson wrote in m: On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 12:07:14 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy wrote: Here's an analysis of why electric vehicles are unlikely to ever completely replace gasoline in the real world. The numbers hold up very well. Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to rise, The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have become skeptical. The long term trend HAS been a steady rise. Except when it collapses. In point of fact, when adjusted for inflation, the price of crude has been remarkably stable, except for spikes caused by politics, not shortage of supply. while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a minimum, seveal times as long to charge up. You seem to have ignored the part about not needing to fuel at a station. The vast majority of users will fuel at home, overnight, or at work while parked. And those who do use stations will seldom need to charge fully. No matter where you charge, the electricity isn't coming out of yoru ass. It sill has to be generated *somewhere*, and transmitted to where it is used. That's ten *trillion* kilowatt hours per year for the US. And that's in addition to current demand, which would require additional generating capacity to be built, and significant upgrades to the grid to handle the additional load. In addition, home charging stations are not as fast charging as the 50 Kw stations used as the equivalent of a gas station. If you can manage a 30 amp station, you get about 30 miles of range per hour of charging. Not all homes can manage a 30 amp service. And, of course, there's the issue of people who live in apartment or other rentals. There is no way in hell I could install a charging station, period. I live in a *small* complexo f about 180 units. If electric vechilces are all that's available, the complex would have to install charging stations for each unit. That's over $7 million. Plus, of course, an *additional* 9 megawatt electric service. Times however many tens of millions of people in the US living in apartments. Hell, I don't think there's even room for a charging station in my parking bay. You've just doubled my rent, and now I'm living in my electric car - that I can't charge. Also note that you'll need to duplicate all that again at places where people work. It ignores that countries will regulate non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes. That may well happen, but that's not the same as replacing gasoline powered cars. That's social engineering to force people to stay close to home. Which europe has done a lot of for decades. The US doesn't respond well to that, and California in particular has a history of getting rid of politicians who **** with cars (ask Gray Davis). It doesn't matter if the car companies aren't making gasoline cars. Which isn't going to happen, even for the US market. Even for city driving, where a hundred mile range is acceptable (assuming you can charge at work, too), the additional load on the grid is too expensive to meet. Ten trillion kilowatt hours per year of new capacity, plus grid upgrades to get it where it needs to go. Or 168,000 nuclear power plants, take your pick. You're going to feel pretty stupid in 20 years when most of the vehicles are electric. Not as stupid as you look right now, kiddo. So hold your breath for 20 years, and get back to me. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#128
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Sunday, 22 October 2017 22:17:50 UTC+2, Chris L Peterson wrote:
Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to rise, while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. It ignores that the demand for gasoline cars will decline and the demand for electric cars will increase. It ignores the fact that most people won't need fueling stations for the vast majority of their fueling. It ignores that there WILL be significant improvements in charging and electrical storage technology. It ignores that countries will regulate non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes. It looks at things as they currently are and imagines that nothing significant will change. Talk about heads in the sand! It also ignores the likelihood of rapid CHANGE battery packs. Petrol station owners and electric car makers would be mad not to consider rapid adoption of standard battery packs as they struggle for serious range and long charging times. Then all it takes is a simple mechanism for roll-out/roll-in for two minute automated battery exchange. All vehicle batteries would be rented/hired. NOT bought. Petrol stations should soon become tourist attractions at Disney and transport museums. The Chinese have easily enough muscle to introduce standard battery packs over the heads of ostrich car makers. They are also desperate to provide clean air. Standardized, rapid change, vehicle battery packs are inevitable and the only real option for keeping the masses moving. Meanwhile the oil companies will never allow their vehicle re-fueling monopolies to die overnight. The loss of their prime real estate would be crippling even if they kept up a dwindling supply for the dwindling number of petrol heads. London has just introduced a surcharge for diesel and older cars entering the city. A nice little earner for local taxes and increasingly popular for every city around the world as they all struggle with deteriorating air quality. It forces poorer drivers to seriously consider electric cars. The car manufacturers are being ostriches where the mass car market is concerned. Can you imagine oil company directors crying at the prospect of losing total market share to nationwide battery hire startups? They are already struggling with the loss of earnings from VHS film rental to TV streaming services. Video rental shops used to be the last gasp for downtrodden shopping streets and malls. Then the petrol stations took over film hire and closed the last gasp video outlets. The loss of the petrol station, with its small shop, would be a major blow to many struggling communities. Times change. Never more than in present times. |
#129
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
"Chris.B" wrote in
: On Sunday, 22 October 2017 22:17:50 UTC+2, Chris L Peterson wrote: Well, no it doesn't. It ignores that the cost of oil will continue to rise, while the cost of electricity will continue to decrease. It ignores that the demand for gasoline cars will decline and the demand for electric cars will increase. It ignores the fact that most people won't need fueling stations for the vast majority of their fueling. It ignores that there WILL be significant improvements in charging and electrical storage technology. It ignores that countries will regulate non-electric vehicles out of existence for most purposes. It looks at things as they currently are and imagines that nothing significant will change. Talk about heads in the sand! It also ignores the likelihood of rapid CHANGE battery packs. Higher efficiency batteries won't generate ten terrawatt hours of elecricity ever year. Nor will it allow the transfer of hundreds of kilowatt hours more quickly at 50 killowatts. You will *never* address this. I seriously doubt you are capable of even seeing it through the hallucinations. -- Terry Austin Vacation photos from Iceland: https://plus.google.com/u/0/collection/QaXQkB "Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole." -- David Bilek Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals. |
#130
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Is Elon Musk ready for the straitjacket ?
On Sun, 22 Oct 2017 20:39:17 -0700, Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
wrote: The experts have been saying that for 50 years. People have become skeptical. The long term trend HAS been a steady rise. Except when it collapses. In point of fact, when adjusted for inflation, the price of crude has been remarkably stable, except for spikes caused by politics, not shortage of supply. Collapses and spikes are normal. Take them out, and you're left with a steady rise over the last 75+ years. The laws of physics, however do not. 3 megawatts to fill in less than five minutes, when 350 kilowatts requires liquid cooling on the cable, and will literally explode if shorted out. So, at a minimum, seveal times as long to charge up. You seem to have ignored the part about not needing to fuel at a station. The vast majority of users will fuel at home, overnight, or at work while parked. And those who do use stations will seldom need to charge fully. No matter where you charge, the electricity isn't coming out of yoru ass. It sill has to be generated *somewhere*, and transmitted to where it is used. That's ten *trillion* kilowatt hours per year for the US. And that's in addition to current demand, which would require additional generating capacity to be built, and significant upgrades to the grid to handle the additional load. Producing the electricity isn't a real problem. Your argument was about the load, which is a function of rate. The rate will not typically be high. In addition, home charging stations are not as fast charging as the 50 Kw stations used as the equivalent of a gas station. If you can manage a 30 amp station, you get about 30 miles of range per hour of charging. Not all homes can manage a 30 amp service. You don't typically need fast charging at home. And most will have access to charging at their destinations. Indeed, one huge benefit a large electric car fleet provides is load normalization across the entire grid. Economics will create a system with a huge number of public charging stations just for that reason. It doesn't matter if the car companies aren't making gasoline cars. Which isn't going to happen, even for the US market. Yes, it is. It's already happening. Gasoline cars will be the exception in 20 years, not the rule. And awkward as hell given that there won't be many filling stations. And expensive to operate given high carbon taxes. |
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