Chance of shuttle disaster i in 75

On 28/04/2011 12:49 AM, bob haller wrote:

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I feel bad for the workers losing their jobs

well honestly for nasa it doesnt matter since the shuttle is ending
and no replacement is coming soon

Again you're wrong.

The workers won't be unemployed for long - with SpaceX and the other
companies developing LV's at an incredible rate of knots, getting
trained workers will be difficult without using ex-NASA employees. This
is demonstrated by most of the upper echelon of SpaceX employment of
late - mostly, if not entirely, ex-NASA.

Also, you're wrong about no shuttle replacement coming soon. Dragon
will probably fly people in the next two-three years.

Boeing is developing the CST-100; then there's Dream Chaser (modified
HL-20, a vehicle I favoured some years ago and would be superb for ferry
work); New Shepard; and also Prometheus from Orbital Science.

Dragon's by far the most advanced of these vehicles where timeline is
concerned and will be in operation before the others even have their
first launch.

On Thu, 28 Apr 2011 01:07:17 +1000, Alan Erskine
wrote:

On 27/04/2011 1:49 AM, bob haller wrote:


Imagine is 1 in 75 car trips resuled in a disaster accident

Or 1 in 75 airliner trips ended in disaster

Cars don't have a billion parts. Neither do airliners (less than a
million for a large passenger jet). And neither vehicle does 3 G's
during launch; doesn't travel at up to 27,000km/h; doesn't go into
vacuums on a regular basis; and neither vehicle travels through the air
at temperatures of thousands of degrees.

References online indicate the shuttle has about 2.5 million parts,
obviously it depends on how they are counted but I'd hazard a guess
that the vast majority will be as a result of the systems that are
firmly entrenched in the 1970's and if engineered today would drop by
an order of magnitude or more. So still more complex than an airliner
but not by a huge amount.

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On Apr 28, 4:26*am, The Other Mike
wrote:
On Thu, 28 Apr 2011 01:07:17 +1000, Alan Erskine

wrote:
On 27/04/2011 1:49 AM, bob haller wrote:

Imagine is 1 in 75 car trips resuled in a disaster accident

Or 1 in 75 airliner trips ended in disaster

Cars don't have a billion parts. *Neither do airliners (less than a
million for a large passenger jet). *And neither vehicle does 3 G's
during launch; doesn't travel at up to 27,000km/h; doesn't go into
vacuums on a regular basis; and neither vehicle travels through the air
at temperatures of thousands of degrees.

References online indicate the shuttle has about 2.5 million parts,
obviously it depends on how they are counted but I'd hazard a guess
that the vast majority will be as a result of the systems that are
firmly entrenched in the 1970's and if engineered today would drop by
an order of magnitude or more. *So still more complex than an airliner
but not by a huge amount.

--

yeah and lack of launch boost escape was a major error, to try and
save some bucks. once they went with solids launch boost escape should
of been mandatory