Multimillionaire's private space ship 'can land on Mars'

Musk's SpaceX market cap was estimated in 2010 to be $840 million. He
put in about $1.2 billion. Today, rumor has it that Musk hopes to
sell 35% of SpaceX at an IPO for $1.75 to $3.50 billion - which would
give the company a $5 billion to $10 billion market cap.

I don't think their sales support that valuation at present, not
without some sort of longer-term game plan. They're totally dependent
on the DOD and NASA at this point and they're not well locked in.
Orbital Sciences had a market valuation of $44.88 in 1998 which
dropped to $1.77 in 2001. They're now back at $18.41, but again,
they're very dependent on a few blue chip contracts that could change
on a whim. SpaceX needs to break free of this sort of dependence.

Orbital Sciences Market Cap: $1.11 billion
Lockheed Market Cap: $27.09 billion.
Boeing Aerospace Market Cap: $55.15 billion.

One way to do this is to do as I've suggested for 30 years. Namely,
sell global services to solve global problems. Find a reliable
gallium and rhenium supply in the asteroid belt. Turn the world into
a wireless hot spot using space based routers. Beam energy to
aircraft and ships at sea from orbit.

A single automated ship dispatched to the asteroid belt each 1.28
years for $250 million, returning with a 360 ton cargo of rhenium and
gallium, is worth $2.2 billion. Doing this three times a year among
four asteroids and several high value low volume materials turns $600
million into $6.6 billion each year.

What's a $6 billion a year profit worth? Well, at an 8% discount rate
over 10 years its worth $40 billion the first time you do it.

If it takes 5 years to develop all the details and prove them out, and
you apply a 40% annual discount rate over those 5 years of zero
income, you have $7.49 billion valuation the day you start.

Of course you wouldn't collect all your money the first day. You'd
have quarterly reports and raise money every quarter - and pay 40% on
what you used in the interim. That way you could spend as much as
$17.8 billion and flip the revenue stream from the project

So, you organize a project company, sign an exclusive deal for IP use
and so forth, and also a supply deal long-term, and raise money
selling shares in the well-quantified project company.

Risk Return

0.89 4.79 Y1
1.78 6.84 Y2
3.56 9.77 Y3
7.12 13.96 Y4
4.45 6.23 Y5

17.80 41.58 TOTAL

So, even though you've sold all the project company, you still benefit
as a supplier of IP and services and goods. You build own and operate
the equipment. The investors buy the commodities.

If you need only say $8.9 billion for your development program, you
need only sell half the output of metals expected.

Organizing three project companies;

Project 1: SpaceCom - world wireless hotspot,
Project 2: SpaceMine - world mining operation.
Project 3: SpacePower - world power network

Each one built around payloads that fit within your 53 ton proven
limit which SpaceX provides.

These include;

120 satellites 5.3 tonnes each in 12 polar orbits launched in 12
separate launches. Each orbital router is equipped with an open
optical peta bit laser communications backbone, and a phased array
downlink to paint stationary doppler corrected cells that communicate
with handheld portable devices at extreme broadband providing 50
billion broadband channels simultaneously throughout the world. At
$250 million per launch the total program cost is $3 billion with
potential returns of $50 billion per year and more as systems develop
to use them.

A solar powered ion booster with a MEMS based robot swarm within a
satellite capable of surveying, mining, and refining ores in space
using solar energy collected by the booster while parked nearby. Each
satellite returns 360 tons of materials at a cost of $250 million.
Plans to survey Vesta, Ceres, Hygeia, 704 Interamnia, Pallas and
retrieve whatever is possible to retrieve there with up to 4 years of
operations. The technology can also be adapted for terrestrial lunar
or Mars use.

Retool the 7 ton 100 MW solar power unit tech used on the ion
rocket booster to operate as a 35 ton 500 MW power satellite capable
of beaming energy to 5 receivers simultaneously. Launched into LEO
the system uses ion thrusters to rise to GEO and also for ACS long
term giving it a 30 year life. At $0.06 per kWh the system earns
$525.6 million per year, possessing a value of $5.6 billion the day it
switches on if discounted over 20 years at 8%. Not a bad return for
something likely to cost less than $500 million to put in place.
Three satellites in GEO - Clarke Orbits - provide global coverage, and
operating with aircraft and ships at sea, or even land based systems -
provide unlimited range and capability - as well as power for
stationary receivers operated by mobile forward bases, emergency power
or remote industrial applications, producing $1.5 billion per year in
revenue, worth $16.8 billion costing $1.5 billion.

On Apr 26, 5:54*am, William Mook wrote:
Musk's SpaceX market cap was estimated in 2010 to be $840 million. *He
put in about $1.2 billion. *Today, rumor has it that Musk hopes to
sell 35% of SpaceX at an IPO for $1.75 to $3.50 billion - which would
give the company a $5 billion to $10 billion market cap.

I don't think their sales support that valuation at present, not
without some sort of longer-term game plan. *They're totally dependent
on the DOD and NASA at this point and they're not well locked in.
Orbital Sciences had a market valuation of $44.88 in 1998 which
dropped to $1.77 in 2001. *They're now back at $18.41, but again,
they're very dependent on a few blue chip contracts that could change
on a whim. *SpaceX needs to break free of this sort of dependence.

* *Orbital Sciences Market Cap: *$1.11 billion
* * * * * * * Lockheed Market Cap: *$27.09 billion.
Boeing Aerospace Market Cap: *$55.15 billion.

One way to do this is to do as I've suggested for 30 years. *Namely,
sell global services to solve global problems. *Find a reliable
gallium and rhenium supply in the asteroid belt. *Turn the world into
a wireless hot spot using space based routers. *Beam energy to
aircraft and ships at sea from orbit.

A single automated ship dispatched to the asteroid belt each 1.28
years for $250 million, returning with a 360 ton cargo of rhenium and
gallium, is worth $2.2 billion. *Doing this three times a year among
four asteroids and several high value low volume materials turns $600
million into $6.6 billion each year.

What's a $6 billion a year profit worth? *Well, at an 8% discount rate
over 10 years its worth $40 billion the first time you do it.

If it takes 5 years to develop all the details and prove them out, and
you apply a 40% annual discount rate over those 5 years of zero
income, *you have $7.49 billion valuation the day you start.

Of course you wouldn't collect all your money the first day. *You'd
have quarterly reports and raise money every quarter - and pay 40% on
what you used in the interim. *That way you could spend as much as
$17.8 billion and flip the revenue stream from the project

So, you organize a project company, sign an exclusive deal for IP use
and so forth, and also a supply deal long-term, and raise money
selling shares in the well-quantified project company.

Risk * * * Return

* 0.89 * *4.79 * Y1
* 1.78 * *6.84 * Y2
* 3.56 * *9.77 * Y3
* 7.12 *13.96 * Y4
* 4.45 * *6.23 * Y5

17.80 * 41.58 * TOTAL

So, even though you've sold all the project company, you still benefit
as a supplier of IP and services and goods. *You build own and operate
the equipment. *The investors buy the commodities.

If you need only say $8.9 billion for your development program, you
need only sell half the output of metals expected.

Organizing three project companies;

* *Project 1: *SpaceCom - world wireless hotspot,
* *Project 2: *SpaceMine *- *world mining operation.
* *Project 3: *SpacePower - world power network

Each one built around payloads that fit within your 53 ton proven
limit which SpaceX provides.

* These include;

* * 120 satellites 5.3 tonnes each in 12 polar orbits launched in 12
separate launches. *Each orbital router is equipped with an open
optical peta bit laser communications backbone, and a phased array
downlink to paint stationary doppler corrected cells that communicate
with handheld portable devices at extreme broadband providing 50
billion broadband channels simultaneously throughout the world. * *At
$250 million per launch the total program cost is $3 billion with
potential returns of $50 billion per year and more as systems develop
to use them.

* * A solar powered ion booster with a MEMS based robot swarm within a
satellite capable of surveying, mining, and refining ores in space
using solar energy collected by the booster while parked nearby. *Each
satellite returns 360 tons of materials at a cost of $250 million.
Plans to survey Vesta, Ceres, Hygeia, 704 Interamnia, Pallas and
retrieve whatever is possible to retrieve there with up to 4 years of
operations. *The technology can also be adapted for terrestrial lunar
or Mars use.

* *Retool the 7 ton 100 MW solar power unit tech used on the ion
rocket booster to operate as a 35 ton 500 MW power satellite capable
of beaming energy to 5 receivers simultaneously. *Launched into LEO
the system uses ion thrusters to rise to GEO and also for ACS long
term giving it a 30 year life. *At $0.06 per kWh the system earns
$525.6 million per year, possessing a value of $5.6 billion the day it
switches on if discounted over 20 years at 8%. *Not a bad return for
something likely to cost less than $500 million to put in place.
Three satellites in GEO - Clarke Orbits - provide global coverage, and
operating with aircraft and ships at sea, or even land based systems -
provide unlimited range and capability - as well as power for
stationary receivers operated by mobile forward bases, emergency power
or remote industrial applications, producing $1.5 billion per year in
revenue, worth $16.8 billion costing $1.5 billion.

We could and should have done the initial Clarke Station plus OASIS at
the Earth-moon L1 as of decades ago, and at something less then the
all-inclusive cost of ISS that's forever stuck in LEO as long as we
keep wasting time, loot and lives keeping it there, and otherwise a
preliminary science platform at 10% the cost of one Apollo mission as
of a half century ago should have been a done deal. So what the hell
gives?

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