Could 2010 be last USA manned launch in our lifetime ?

"Greg D. Moore (Strider)" wrote in message
m...
"André, PE1PQX" wrote in message
...

Not all LV are man-rated... AFAIK only the shuttle is (at the US side).


Actually, but the standards that NASA uses today, the shuttle is NOT
man-rated.

Man-rating always has, and always will, be a very slippery set of
requirements. NASA seeminly routinely tightens them up whenever they don't
like a particular design/proposal and seeminly loosens them (via waivers and
the like) whenever they like a particular design.

And besides, what a paying passenger is willing to fly on may be a
different bar than what NASA is willing to put its astronauts on.

True. People pay significant sums of money to attempt to climb Mt. Everest
knowing full well that there is a decent chance they'll lose digits to
frostbite, or even worse, end up a frozen corpse to be abandoned in the
"dead zone". Those are the same sort of people who would likely pay for a
commercial orbital flight. It would be the greatest thrill ride which
actually gets you off the planet, if only for a few days.

NASA has come a long way (or perhaps regressed) since the days of Mercury,
Gemini, and Apollo where risks were tolerated and astronauts were harvested
from one of the most risky aerospace professions ever: test pilot.

Jeff
--
"Take heart amid the deepening gloom
that your dog is finally getting enough cheese" - Deteriorata - National
Lampoon

bob haller safety advocate wrote:

Slylab, Mir, and other earlier USSR stations were built without the
shuttle. Although shuttle supported MIR in its later years


The USA lacks Kurs type of automated docking technology, and lacks
orbital tugs that can manoeuver payloads to dock/berth or station keep
next to sttation to be captured by an arm.


Perhaps NASA should get a mandate to send, within the next 5 years, an
MPLM fitted for permanent attachement to station using existing
launchers (delta 4 or whatever) and thus develop the tug hardware and
software to emulate what HTV does.

This would provide NASA with much needed capabilities to send cargo in
unmanned vehicles.

On Feb 10, 1:33�am, John Doe wrote:
bob haller safety advocate wrote:

Slylab, Mir, and other earlier USSR stations were built without the
shuttle. Although shuttle supported MIR in its later years

The USA lacks Kurs type of automated docking technology, and lacks
orbital tugs that can manoeuver payloads to dock/berth or station keep
next to sttation to be captured by an arm.

Perhaps NASA should get a mandate to send, within the next 5 years, an
MPLM fitted for permanent attachement to station using existing
launchers (delta 4 or whatever) and thus develop the tug hardware and
software to emulate what HTV does.

This would provide NASA with much needed capabilities to send cargo in
unmanned vehicles.

nasa never wanted unmanned cargo ability, they just wanted manned
control to support man in space

In sci.space.shuttle message
, Tue, 9 Feb 2010 00:10:43, John Doe posted:
bob haller safety advocate wrote:

USA ending all flights on US launchers till private industry can put
something together.

A private enterprise would want assured business of sufficient
time/flights to payback the investment.

Will they have the time to develop/test a vehicle AND operate it enough
times before the station is de-orbited in 2020 ?

Read http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20100209-iss.

IIRC, E.M. has said three years to do manned Dragon, which is 30 months
needed + 6 months for contingencies.

That was when he was in competition with Ares I. Now, whoever was
testing Ares I LES should be looking for a commercial use of their LES
expertise ... .

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What do you mean 'our' lifetime?
That sort of depends upon how long the life is going to be.

I think China will overtake in several years the leading role of the US
leaving
nowadays as the changing point. I am expecting Taikonauts on the moon and
beyond.

It will be hard to understand that just in the moment of completition of the
ISS
the main contributing nation was not able to support it with ferry flights.

Albert

"John Doe" wrote in message
...
Is it conceivable that this year's last shuttle flight could be the last
USA manned launch in the next 50/60 years ?

With Russia offering relatively cheap launches, and possibily ESA with
ATV, will the USA have sufficient justification and determination to
start a new manned space propgramme, and develop to completion new
vehicles ?


Since the USA will be focused on its deficit for at least the next 5
years, it is unlikely that NASA would be given a mandate to develop
something new. And by the time money might again be available, won't
NASA have lost all the expertise needed to build a new space
vehicle/rocket ?


Or is there a realistic chance that one of the private small companies
will actually come up with orbit capable vehicle that will be cost
competitive with the russian soyuz ?

No.

Depends on when you die I suppose.

Brian

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"David Spain" wrote in message
...
No.

On Feb 20, 5:14�am, "Brian Gaff" wrote:
Depends on when you die I suppose.

Brian

Hey if a kid is 5 years old theres a CHANCE they might see space, but
then again I thought that as a youngster too

bob haller safety advocate writes:

On Feb 20, 5:14�am, "Brian Gaff" wrote:
Depends on when you die I suppose.

Brian

Hey if a kid is 5 years old theres a CHANCE they might see space, but
then again I thought that as a youngster too

It's your parents fault for not investing in Berkshire Hathaway when
they could have. A $10,000 investment then would have bought you 20
rides on a Soyuz now.

Instead they bought you that Capt. Matt Marvel Space Helmet....

Kinda symbolic of the whole space program don't you think?

:-)

Dave