Andrew Yee[_1_]
January 17th 08, 06:39 AM
Leslie McCarthy/ Maria Frostic
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York January 16, 2008
212-678-5507 / 301-286-9017
RELEASE: 08-09
2007 WAS TIED AS EARTH'S SECOND WARMEST YEAR
NEW YORK -- Climatologists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(GISS) in New York City have found that 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth's
second warmest year in a century.
Goddard Institute researchers used temperature data from weather stations on
land, satellite measurements of sea ice temperature since 1982 and data from
ships for earlier years.
The greatest warming in 2007 occurred in the Arctic, and neighboring high
latitude regions. Global warming has a larger affect in polar areas, as the
loss of snow and ice leads to more open water, which absorbs more sunlight
and warmth. Snow and ice reflect sunlight; when they disappear, so too does
their ability to deflect warming rays. The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007
is consistent with observations of record low geographic extent of Arctic
sea ice in September 2007.
"As we predicted last year, 2007 was warmer than 2006, continuing the strong
warming trend of the past 30 years that has been confidently attributed to
the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases," said James Hansen,
director of NASA GISS.
"It is unlikely that 2008 will be a year with truly exceptional global mean
temperature," said Hansen. "Barring a large volcanic eruption, a record
global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the
next few years, at the time of the next El Nino, because of the background
warming trend attributable to continuing increases of greenhouse gases."
The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and
the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990.
A minor data processing error found in the GISS temperature analysis in
early 2007 does not affect the present analysis. The data processing flaw
was failure to apply NOAA adjustments to United States Historical
Climatology Network stations in 2000-2006, as the records for those years
were taken from a different data base (Global Historical Climatology
Network). This flaw affected only 1.6% of the Earth's surface (contiguous 48
states) and only the several years in the 21st century. The data processing
flaw did not alter the ordering of the warmest years on record and the
global ranks were unaffected. In the contiguous 48 states, the statistical
tie among 1934, 1998 and 2005 as the warmest year(s) was unchanged. In the
current analysis, in the flawed analysis, and in the published GISS
analysis, 1934 is the warmest year in the contiguous states (but not
globally) by an amount (magnitude of the order of 0.01 C) that is an order
of magnitude smaller than the certainty.
For related images, high definition video downloads, and a short web video
on taking Earth's temperature, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html
For the GISS: 2007 Temperature Analysis, please visit:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
For the 2006 story: 2006 Was Earth's Fifth Warmest Year, visit:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20070208/
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York January 16, 2008
212-678-5507 / 301-286-9017
RELEASE: 08-09
2007 WAS TIED AS EARTH'S SECOND WARMEST YEAR
NEW YORK -- Climatologists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(GISS) in New York City have found that 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth's
second warmest year in a century.
Goddard Institute researchers used temperature data from weather stations on
land, satellite measurements of sea ice temperature since 1982 and data from
ships for earlier years.
The greatest warming in 2007 occurred in the Arctic, and neighboring high
latitude regions. Global warming has a larger affect in polar areas, as the
loss of snow and ice leads to more open water, which absorbs more sunlight
and warmth. Snow and ice reflect sunlight; when they disappear, so too does
their ability to deflect warming rays. The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007
is consistent with observations of record low geographic extent of Arctic
sea ice in September 2007.
"As we predicted last year, 2007 was warmer than 2006, continuing the strong
warming trend of the past 30 years that has been confidently attributed to
the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases," said James Hansen,
director of NASA GISS.
"It is unlikely that 2008 will be a year with truly exceptional global mean
temperature," said Hansen. "Barring a large volcanic eruption, a record
global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the
next few years, at the time of the next El Nino, because of the background
warming trend attributable to continuing increases of greenhouse gases."
The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and
the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990.
A minor data processing error found in the GISS temperature analysis in
early 2007 does not affect the present analysis. The data processing flaw
was failure to apply NOAA adjustments to United States Historical
Climatology Network stations in 2000-2006, as the records for those years
were taken from a different data base (Global Historical Climatology
Network). This flaw affected only 1.6% of the Earth's surface (contiguous 48
states) and only the several years in the 21st century. The data processing
flaw did not alter the ordering of the warmest years on record and the
global ranks were unaffected. In the contiguous 48 states, the statistical
tie among 1934, 1998 and 2005 as the warmest year(s) was unchanged. In the
current analysis, in the flawed analysis, and in the published GISS
analysis, 1934 is the warmest year in the contiguous states (but not
globally) by an amount (magnitude of the order of 0.01 C) that is an order
of magnitude smaller than the certainty.
For related images, high definition video downloads, and a short web video
on taking Earth's temperature, visit:
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html
For the GISS: 2007 Temperature Analysis, please visit:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
For the 2006 story: 2006 Was Earth's Fifth Warmest Year, visit:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20070208/