Andrew Yee[_1_]
January 5th 08, 05:33 AM
NOAA
Washington, D.C.
Media Contact:
Anatta, 303-497-6288
January 4, 2008
NOAA: Sunspot is Harbinger of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk for
Electrical Systems
A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased
risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline
communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions,
showed signs it was on its way late yesterday when the cycle's first sunspot
appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said.
"This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist
Douglas Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. "In this case,
it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the
next few years."
A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of
the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected to build
gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms reaching a maximum
by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur at any time.
During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may head
toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical
communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can
also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp Global
Positioning System signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell
phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large
part of the globe.
"Our growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based technologies
means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today than in the past,"
said Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., under secretary of commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "NOAA's space weather
monitoring and forecasts are critical for the nation's ability to function
smoothly during solar disturbances."
Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar experts,
NOAA issued a forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008, plus
or minus six months. The panel was evenly split between those predicting a
strong or weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the new cycle takes
over the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it will be a strong
season with many sunspots and major storms, said Biesecker. Many more
sunspots with Solar Cycle 24 traits must emerge before scientists consider
the new cycle dominant, with the potential for more frequent storms.
The new sunspot, identified as No. 10,981, is the latest visible spot to
appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude
location at 27 degrees North, and its negative polarity leading to the right
in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle,
according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new
solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle
continue to form closer to the equator.
SWPC is the nation's first alert for solar activity and its affects on
Earth. The center's space weather forecasters issue outlooks for the next
11-year solar "season" and warn of individual storms occurring on the sun
that could impact Earth. SWPC is one of NOAA's nine National Centers for
Environmental Prediction and is also the warning agency of the International
Space Environment Service (ISES), a consortium of 11 member nations.
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
information service delivery for transportation, and by providing
environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.
Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),
NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the
European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as
integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
IMAGE CAPTION:
[http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/images/gong2.jpg (308KB)]
First official sunspot belonging to the new Solar Cycle 24. Credit: NOAA
Washington, D.C.
Media Contact:
Anatta, 303-497-6288
January 4, 2008
NOAA: Sunspot is Harbinger of New Solar Cycle, Increasing Risk for
Electrical Systems
A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased
risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline
communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions,
showed signs it was on its way late yesterday when the cycle's first sunspot
appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said.
"This sunspot is like the first robin of spring," said solar physicist
Douglas Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. "In this case,
it's an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the
next few years."
A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of
the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected to build
gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms reaching a maximum
by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur at any time.
During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may head
toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical
communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can
also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp Global
Positioning System signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell
phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large
part of the globe.
"Our growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based technologies
means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today than in the past,"
said Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., under secretary of commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "NOAA's space weather
monitoring and forecasts are critical for the nation's ability to function
smoothly during solar disturbances."
Last April, in coordination with an international panel of solar experts,
NOAA issued a forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008, plus
or minus six months. The panel was evenly split between those predicting a
strong or weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the new cycle takes
over the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it will be a strong
season with many sunspots and major storms, said Biesecker. Many more
sunspots with Solar Cycle 24 traits must emerge before scientists consider
the new cycle dominant, with the potential for more frequent storms.
The new sunspot, identified as No. 10,981, is the latest visible spot to
appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude
location at 27 degrees North, and its negative polarity leading to the right
in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle,
according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new
solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle
continue to form closer to the equator.
SWPC is the nation's first alert for solar activity and its affects on
Earth. The center's space weather forecasters issue outlooks for the next
11-year solar "season" and warn of individual storms occurring on the sun
that could impact Earth. SWPC is one of NOAA's nine National Centers for
Environmental Prediction and is also the warning agency of the International
Space Environment Service (ISES), a consortium of 11 member nations.
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and
information service delivery for transportation, and by providing
environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.
Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS),
NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the
European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as
integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
IMAGE CAPTION:
[http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/images/gong2.jpg (308KB)]
First official sunspot belonging to the new Solar Cycle 24. Credit: NOAA