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#51
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
The sonic boom issue was questionable all along, yes. But it was not
clear just how much people would put up with. Now we think we know. However, if you're required to forsee fuel price increases, or new engine noise rules, when your design was about as loud as its operating contemporaries, then all new businesses and projects must hire a psychic, yes? Knowing in advance what the specific new restrictions would be would require a psychic - but knowing that there =would be= new restrictions of some kind is predictable, because there usually are. You need to design a system flexible enough to deal with that kind of possibility, and have the need for redevelopment costs to deal with them on your balance sheet. |
#52
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
"John Ordover" wrote in message m... Even I am more optimistic than that - I think there probably is a way to exploit space to make a bundle that no one has thought of yet. And that way will only be found by people looking for and working on answers, not someone that simply collects negatives. Assuming they are actually working on it, rather than deluding themselves with dreams of asteroid mining, joyrides, and other such dead ends. Clearly you have not researched these areas. You have a problem with 'Killer App syndrome' in which any revenue stream must stand alone and support the entire development and exploitation effort. Either of the items you mentioned will not do the whole job, no one item will. What is required is to integrate as many revenue streams as possible into a coherent business plan. Joyrides and asteroid mining do not fit into the same plan. We once identified 9 possible revenue streams for one vehicle. Each inadequate alone, sufficient with margin as a group. Also you do not go from zero to unlimited access in one jump. Any coherent plan includes as large a number of profitable intermediate steps as possible. Fortunes and progress are made in the margins. Identifying these margins is a job in itself for the careful investigator. Unlimited pessimism or optimism is a hindrance. These are hard lessons I learned building one company, and the lessons I am applying to a second. I won't be first or even second, but I will make money. |
#53
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
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#55
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
In article , says...
Tom Merkle wrote: No, there has to be somewhere to GO in space before people (and Congress, too) will really want to go there in any great number. Right now that consists of a small scientific station in zero-g. It's like an oil rig without any oil as a product. It's an economic dead end until we decide to go to a place with resources that can be used to defray the cost of getting there and maintaining it--like the moon or mars. Actually IIRC the Martian moons are the single point in the solar system where it's easiest to get to any other point from.... so if you are going to start mining things and building a spaceport, Phobos and Deimos with their tiny gravity wells might be the place to start. Particularly if you have a base on Mars itself that can act as a refuge in case of major crew injury or vehicle malfunction...certainly close than either the Moon or asteroids in a time needed/energy used sense. Just a minor nit -- on either/both of Mars' moons, you're not only inside the given moon's gravity well, you're also inside (though not at the bottom of) Mars' gravity well. But yes, you're far enough towards its edge that your delta-V requirements for getting other places are less than in Earth orbit, or even in lunar orbit. -- Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup | |
#56
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Doug... wrote: Dead ends? The last of the Earth's easily accessible soft iron deposits were depleted during World War II. We're now mining taconite and recycling steel in order to keep up with the demand for iron. Eventually (granted, in a future that's far enough removed that none of us here will ever see it), we will *need* to go off-planet for iron. Assuming we insist on using iron to make new buildings, machines, etc. What you do you see.... is go down to some remote area where the Earth's crust is really thin- Tanganyika for instance. Then you drill a bore hole down to the molten nickel-iron of the Earth's outer core...if any hard substance- say one that can even dull diamond drills- is found to be covering this mass of molten metal, then it can probably be pierced by the judicious use of a nuclear device propelled down the bore hole by a rocket... I think this idea is logical, economical, and completely safe. Dr. Stephen Sorenson |
#57
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
"Pat Flannery" wrote in message ... Doug... wrote: Dead ends? The last of the Earth's easily accessible soft iron deposits were depleted during World War II. We're now mining taconite and recycling steel in order to keep up with the demand for iron. Eventually (granted, in a future that's far enough removed that none of us here will ever see it), we will *need* to go off-planet for iron. Assuming we insist on using iron to make new buildings, machines, etc. What you do you see.... is go down to some remote area where the Earth's crust is really thin- Tanganyika for instance. Then you drill a bore hole down to the molten nickel-iron of the Earth's outer core...if any hard substance- say one that can even dull diamond drills- is found to be covering this mass of molten metal, then it can probably be pierced by the judicious use of a nuclear device propelled down the bore hole by a rocket... I think this idea is logical, economical, and completely safe. Actually I've got this idea for building an atomic powered digger and taking it to the South Pole. I think my idea would Swiftly solve the problem. Dr. Stephen Sorenson |
#58
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Greg D. Moore (Strider) wrote: Actually I've got this idea for building an atomic powered digger and taking it to the South Pole. I think my idea would Swiftly solve the problem. No need to drill if you're going there...a Zeppelin can be sent into the Polar opening, and mining can commence with the aid of the handy prehistoric animals and indigenous peoples that live down there. We could show them how to mine, and after some initial monkeying around, I'm sure they would ape our behavior. Lord Flanstoke |
#59
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
"Jan C. Vorbrüggen" wrote in message ...
There is no demand or need for suborbital mail service. The major limiting factor on mail delivery is getting it from the airport to the recipient, not the flight time. Oh really? Like the spare part that needs to go to Australia from Europe, and which is costing $200k per hour in down time unitl it arrives? Not a large demand, but definitely greater than 0. And how often does that happen, exactly? Spare parts like that are usually stockpiled or bought from local suppliers in the first place. Paperwork (contracts et al.) are also applicable. Nope - because overnight is fine on contracts - you can fax a signed copy, and wait a day for the physical paperwork. Jan |
#60
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
"Sander Vesik" wrote in message ... In sci.space.policy John Ordover wrote: It was limited by matters outside of market forces: The unacceptability of sonic booms over inhabited areas. And that could not have been forseen? Seems like a no-brainer. Have you ever actually heard one? If a plane goes supersonic at a realtively low altitude, yes, the noise is loud, will rattle the windows, etc. At the heights Conorde flies, it would be at most slightly annoying. So no, it is not something they could have foreseen. -- Sander Thunder at some distance is a fair analogy. Ralph Nesbitt |
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