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What Are the Numbers Now?
A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3, but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to failures? |
#2
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What Are the Numbers Now?
John Schutkeker wrote: A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3, but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to failures? According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the 45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those numbers, or how they were counted. According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered 5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions. NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year of launch. Flyby Missions Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964 Mariner 4 1964 Mariner 6 1969 Mariner 7 1969 Orbiter/Lander Missions Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971 Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971 Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975 Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975 Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992 Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996 Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996 Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998 Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999 Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001 Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003 Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003 Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005 - Ed Kyle |
#3
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What Are the [Mars] Numbers Now?
Ed Kyle wrote:
John Schutkeker wrote: A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3, but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to failures? According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the 45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those numbers, or how they were counted. According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered 5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions. NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year of launch. Flyby Missions Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964 Mariner 4 1964 Mariner 6 1969 Mariner 7 1969 Orbiter/Lander Missions Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971 Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971 Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975 Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975 Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992 Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996 Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996 Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998 Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999 Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001 Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003 Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003 Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005 I just realized that with the MRO orbit insertion (and assuming that all continues to go O.K.), NASA has just recorded its longest consecutive string of Mars mission successes (four). - Ed Kyle |
#4
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What Are the Numbers Now?
Ed Kyle wrote:
According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered 5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions. JAXA (ex-NASDA) had also their Nozomi (Planet-B) mission, but unfortunately it failed to perform its MOI. Matti -- http://masa.net/space/ |
#5
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What Are the [Mars] Numbers Now?
Ed Kyle ) wrote:
: Ed Kyle wrote: : John Schutkeker wrote: : A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3, : but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO : doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to : failures? : : According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington : Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the : 45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those : numbers, or how they were counted. : : According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia : suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered : 5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in : two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions. : : NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year : of launch. : : Flyby Missions : : Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964 : Mariner 4 1964 : Mariner 6 1969 : Mariner 7 1969 : : Orbiter/Lander Missions : : Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971 : Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971 : Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975 : Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975 : Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992 : Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996 : Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996 : Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998 : Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999 : Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001 : Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003 : Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003 : Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005 : I just realized that with the MRO orbit insertion : (and assuming that all continues to go O.K.), : NASA has just recorded its longest consecutive : string of Mars mission successes (four). knock on wood... Eric : - Ed Kyle |
#6
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What Are the Numbers Now?
Matti Anttila wrote in :
Ed Kyle wrote: According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered 5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions. JAXA (ex-NASDA) had also their Nozomi (Planet-B) mission, but unfortunately it failed to perform its MOI. Was that Japanese, was it an orbiter or a lander, and what year was it? |
#7
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What Are the Numbers Now?
"Ed Kyle" wrote in
oups.com: John Schutkeker wrote: A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3, but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to failures? According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the 45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those numbers, or how they were counted. According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered 5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions. NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year of launch. Flyby Missions Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964 Mariner 4 1964 Mariner 6 1969 Mariner 7 1969 Orbiter/Lander Missions Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971 Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971 Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975 Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975 Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992 Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996 Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996 Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998 Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999 Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001 Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003 Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003 Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005 Am I correct that this data would be best modelled as a Poisson process? |
#8
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What Are the Numbers Now?
Matti Anttila wrote in :
John Schutkeker wrote: Was that Japanese, was it an orbiter or a lander, and what year was it? Nozomi was Japanese. It was an orbiter which made its Mars fly-by (supposed to perform an MOI) in December 2003. So it belonged to the "crowd" of ESA's MEX, UK's Beagle-2 and MER-1 and MER-2. Due to its unsuccessful MOI, it is now in heliocentric orbit, as far as I know. See: http://www.jaxa.jp/missions/projects...mi/index_e.htm l Did this probe follow a more complex trajectory to the destination, or do the Japanese put more technical detail into their articles and draw better pictures? |
#9
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What Are the Numbers Now?
Here's my scorecard:
The Mars Scorecard missions attempting to orbit or land on Mars Out of 22 attempts: Failures: 13 (59%) Successes: 9 (41%) Mission Country Date Type Success/Failure mode ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mariner 8 US 1971 Orbiter Launch failure Mariner 9 US 1971 Orbiter SUCCESS Unknown USSR 1971 Orbiter Launch failure Mars 2 USSR 1971 Lander Lost while landing in dust storm Mars 3 USSR 1971 Lander Lost while landing in dust storm Viking I US 1975 Orbiter/Lander SUCCESS Viking II US 1975 Orbiter/Lander SUCCESS Phobos I USSR 1988 Phobos Lander Failed in flight to Mars Phobos II USSR 1988 Phobos Lander Failed in Mars orbit* Mars Observer US 1990 Orbiter Fuel line rupture on insertion Mars '96 Ru/ESA 1996 Orbiter/Lander Failed TMI Mars Pathfinder US 1997 Lander SUCCESS Mars Global Sur. US 1997 Orbiter SUCCESS Nozomi Japan 1998 Orbiter Fuel use error Mars Clim. Orb. US 1998 Orbiter Destroyed in aerobraking Mars Polar Landr US 1999 Lander Failure during entry/landing DS-2 US 1999 penetrator failure at Mars (see note**) Mars Odyssey US 2001 Orbiter SUCCESS Beagle-2 UK 2003 Lander Failed at Mars Mars Express ESA 2003 Orbiter SUCCESS MER A Spirit US 2004 lander SUCCESS MER B Opportunity US 2004 lander SUCCESS notes: *The Phobos-II mission failed its primary mission, but did succeed in reaching Mars orbit and making some measurements. **The DS-2 microprobes went to Mars on the Polar Lander Spacecraft. Depending on how you count spacecraft that separate into multiple parts, this may be considered part of the Polar Lander (however, by this count several successful spacecraft, such as both Vikings, have to be counted as two spacecraft) -- if you add fly-by spacecraft, it doesn't change much Failures: 18 (60%) Successes: 12 (40%) -- Geoffrey A. Landis http://www.sff.net/people/geoffrey.landis |
#10
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What Are the Numbers Now?
Oops, I hadn't added MRO to the scorecard! Assuming MRO doesn't
mysteriously fail during areobraking, the updated numbers are Out of 23 attempts: Failures: 13 (56%) Successes: 10 (43%) -- Geoffrey A. Landis http://www.sff.net/people/geoffrey.landis |
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