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After China



 
 
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  #1  
Old October 15th 03, 01:27 AM
Dave Downing
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Default After China

Ok, this could be a tricky one!

Assuming China makes it to become the third nation to successfully orbit
humans, who does the group think will be next?

Note, I am thinking of national efforts at orbiting rather than private
sub-orbital launches eg X-Prize. I am not aware of anyone else making
firm plans yet. Time for some interesting specualative discussion!

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| Dave Downing, Somerset U.K. |
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  #2  
Old October 15th 03, 02:31 AM
Rand Simberg
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Default After China

On Tue, 14 Oct 2003 18:27:01 CST, in a place far, far away, "Dave
Downing" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Ok, this could be a tricky one!

Assuming China makes it to become the third nation to successfully orbit
humans, who does the group think will be next?

Note, I am thinking of national efforts at orbiting rather than private
sub-orbital launches eg X-Prize. I am not aware of anyone else making
firm plans yet. Time for some interesting specualative discussion!


In the absence of any other information, India.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

  #4  
Old October 15th 03, 06:23 AM
Rand Simberg
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Default After China

On Tue, 14 Oct 2003 23:07:53 CST, in a place far, far away, Pascal
Bourguignon made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Assuming China makes it to become the third nation to successfully orbit
humans, who does the group think will be next?

Note, I am thinking of national efforts at orbiting rather than private
sub-orbital launches eg X-Prize. I am not aware of anyone else making
firm plans yet. Time for some interesting specualative discussion!


In the absence of any other information, India.


Politically, perhaps.

Technically, I would say that Europe is closer.

Perhaps the fact that a third-world communist country launches men
into space will motivate first-world capitalist Europeans leaders to
do something about it. (We can always dream...)


I suspect that the subcontinent will be much more threatened than
Europe, and they've got more technical ability than people think.

Question: Would India send a man in space before or after China reach the Moon?


The real question is what model they'd use to do so. Government
program, or private enterprise?

http://www.techcentralstation.com/081503C.html

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

  #5  
Old October 15th 03, 10:36 AM
Anthony Frost
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Default After China

In message
"Dave Downing" wrote:

Assuming China makes it to become the third nation to successfully orbit
humans, who does the group think will be next?


Make that "Now that China has become..."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/3192330.stm

Anthony



--
| Weather prediction will never be accurate until we |
| kill all the butterflies |

  #6  
Old October 15th 03, 11:14 AM
Alain Fournier
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Default After China

Rand Simberg wrote:

On Tue, 14 Oct 2003 23:07:53 CST, in a place far, far away, Pascal
Bourguignon made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:



Assuming China makes it to become the third nation to successfully orbit
humans, who does the group think will be next?

Note, I am thinking of national efforts at orbiting rather than private
sub-orbital launches eg X-Prize. I am not aware of anyone else making
firm plans yet. Time for some interesting specualative discussion!


In the absence of any other information, India.


Politically, perhaps.

Technically, I would say that Europe is closer.

Perhaps the fact that a third-world communist country launches men
into space will motivate first-world capitalist Europeans leaders to
do something about it. (We can always dream...)



I suspect that the subcontinent will be much more threatened than
Europe, and they've got more technical ability than people think.



I agree that India is the most likely candidate, but Europe is a close
second. What
I think is interesting is that there are many others. Maybe it will be
Japan, or Brazil
or ...

Maybe one of them will even do it smartly.

Alain Fournier

  #7  
Old October 15th 03, 12:49 PM
Jim Kingdon
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Default After China

The real question is what model [India would] use to do so.
Government program, or private enterprise?


Well, I don't see the Indian government spurring on private enterprise
to do it (a la mail contracts in the early days of US aviation, or
pick your favorite example). A quick search turned up this article:
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...2900080900.htm
but the point is that private enterprise in India doesn't have the
kind of cozy relationship with the government as in the US - the
government is more something to try to get around.

So unless Indian private enterprise thinks they can make this happen
based on commercial markets, I think an Indian government program is
more likely.

Sure it would be nice if some part of the world produces commercially
driven spaceflight, but it still seems most likely to happen in the US
than anywhere else (as far as I can see). That's where there is an
entrepreneurial spirit, the desire to develop a private space effort,
and even (these days) a few people who made money in dot-com days and
are finding it is burning a (space-related) hole in their pockets.

  #8  
Old October 15th 03, 05:15 PM
Rand Simberg
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Default After China

On Wed, 15 Oct 2003 05:49:33 CST, in a place far, far away, Jim
Kingdon made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

Sure it would be nice if some part of the world produces commercially
driven spaceflight, but it still seems most likely to happen in the US
than anywhere else (as far as I can see). That's where there is an
entrepreneurial spirit, the desire to develop a private space effort,
and even (these days) a few people who made money in dot-com days and
are finding it is burning a (space-related) hole in their pockets.


Yup.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

  #9  
Old October 15th 03, 07:25 PM
Robert Kitzmüller
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Default After China

Alain Fournier wrote:

Rand Simberg wrote:
I suspect that the subcontinent will be much more threatened than
Europe, and they've got more technical ability than people think.


I agree that India is the most likely candidate, but Europe is a close
second. What
I think is interesting is that there are many others. Maybe it will be
Japan, or Brazil
or ...


There is also Iran, or North Corea...
Also most of the south american countries might do it (we are talking
just a small can in orbit.)

But still, India *is* te most likely canidate, and Europe could do it too
if only one could motivate them.

Maybe one of them will even do it smartly.


One can dream...

Robert Kitzmueller

  #10  
Old October 15th 03, 11:41 PM
Jon G
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Default After China




"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 14 Oct 2003 18:27:01 CST, in a place far, far away, "Dave
Downing" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Ok, this could be a tricky one!

Assuming China makes it to become the third nation to successfully orbit
humans, who does the group think will be next?

Note, I am thinking of national efforts at orbiting rather than private
sub-orbital launches eg X-Prize. I am not aware of anyone else making
firm plans yet. Time for some interesting specualative discussion!


In the absence of any other information, India.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:


India has the technical ability but a pretty limited budget. Looking at
ISRO's Decade plan shows some interesting developments in the future, but
nothing as dramatic as a manned space program . If the GSLV proves reliable
though, then the launch market might get even tighter some years down the
road. Still, they could always send someone up in a "Mercury-ish" can and
then retrieve them. Maybe they could get ham's to volunteer worldwide for
tracking.

I would think that Japan might be the nation to watch, with the agencies
being combined into JAXA. Japan has proven orbital recovery (OREX), and
automatic landing (AFLEX). Work continues on Hope-X. Hope-X could
conveivably be converted to carry a human, if Japan wants to enter the
prestige race.

Rev. Jon

 




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