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Russian Meteor Strike



 
 
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  #11  
Old February 15th 13, 08:53 PM posted to sci.space.history
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

On Friday, February 15, 2013 11:39:35 AM UTC-8, wrote:

Better, more detailed info at:

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/...191379871.html
  #12  
Old February 15th 13, 08:56 PM posted to sci.space.history
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

On Friday, February 15, 2013 11:53:00 AM UTC-8, wrote:
On Friday, February 15, 2013 11:39:35 AM UTC-8, wrote: Better, more detailed info at: http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/...191379871.html


Map of area affected at:

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-061
  #13  
Old February 15th 13, 09:23 PM posted to sci.space.history
Stuf4
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

From David Spain:
Sounds of the meteor are available via Flash player on this site:

http://www.b.weather.com/news/meteor...earth-20130215


Audio would indicate one severe explosion followed by several smaller
'popping' sounds. First explosion powerful enough not only to break
windows but set off car alarms. Subsequent explosions from remnant
fragments?

It would be nice to have a spectral analysis of the flash.


Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie Raygun.

~ CT
  #14  
Old February 15th 13, 09:31 PM posted to sci.space.history
Stuf4
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

From Brian Lawrence:
On 15/02/2013 17:05, Stuf4 wrote:

snip
I just now read that the this morning's meteor strike came in from a totally
different direction from 2012 DA14, so now I see what you were saying.


It's also about the time difference between the meteor/ite and the
closest approach. Roughly 14 hours apart. Again roughly, the Earth
orbits at around 30kps, so over 14 hours travels about 1.5 million
km ~ 1m miles. That's a huge difference between objects from a single
'parent' - perhaps not 100% impossible, but extremely unlikely.
Possibly if the objects separated a long time ago and their orbits
have continued to diverge over time.


Yeah. The HUGE lesson learned from all this is that our detection ability is lame. All these trillions spent on killing fellow members of the human race might be more wisely apportioned if we'd divert even a small fraction of that toward protecting the planet as a whole.

The wakeup call was with SL9 during the 25th anniversary of Apollo 11. We got a repeat event during the 40th anniversary of that first step. It's like the Universe is presenting a giant billboard to us:
__________________________________________________ _______
| |
| HELLO? WOULD Y'ALL LIKE TO CONTINUE EVOLVING, OR WHAT? |
|_________________________________________________ ________|

~ CT
  #15  
Old February 17th 13, 08:55 AM posted to sci.space.history
snidely
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

Stuf4 submitted this idea :
From David Spain:
Sounds of the meteor are available via Flash player on this site:

http://www.b.weather.com/news/meteor...earth-20130215


Audio would indicate one severe explosion followed by several smaller
'popping' sounds. First explosion powerful enough not only to break
windows but set off car alarms. Subsequent explosions from remnant
fragments?

It would be nice to have a spectral analysis of the flash.


Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold
War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie
Raygun.


Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for
a grazing trajectory.

/dps

--
Maybe C282Y is simply one of the hangers-on, a groupie following a
future guitar god of the human genome: an allele with undiscovered
virtuosity, currently soloing in obscurity in Mom's garage.
Bradley Wertheim, theAtlantic.com, Jan 10 2013


  #16  
Old February 17th 13, 12:16 PM posted to sci.space.history
Stuf4
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

From snidely (dps):
Stuf4 submitted this idea :
From David Spain:

snip
Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold
War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie
Raygun.


Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for
a grazing trajectory.


Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!"

Hahah.

~ CT
  #17  
Old February 17th 13, 03:06 PM posted to sci.space.history
Greg \(Strider\) Moore
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

"Stuf4" wrote in message
...

From snidely (dps):
Stuf4 submitted this idea :
From David Spain:

snip
Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of
Cold
War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of
Ronnie
Raygun.


Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for
a grazing trajectory.


Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have
expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing
trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!"


Yes, it probably is. The Soviets may have been paranoid, but they weren't
stupid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

He judged correctly that a US attack wouldn't look like what the data was
showing him.

It's highly likely that had this happened during the Cold War a person in a
similar position would have done the same thing:

1) Hmm.. wrong trajectory
2) Single contact
3) Moving way too fast

This btw, also assumes that it was detectable. It's quite possible given
the trajectory and speed it wouldn't have been.



Hahah.

~ CT



--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

  #18  
Old February 17th 13, 06:54 PM posted to sci.space.history
Fevric J. Glandules
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov


Coincidentally:
"Petrov has been named winner of the Dresden Preis 2013 (Dresden Prize)
for averting a nuclear war in 1983. The award will be presented to him
Feb. 17, 2013, in Dresden, Germany, and will include 25,000 euro"


  #19  
Old February 17th 13, 10:06 PM posted to sci.space.history
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Default Russian Meteor Strike

On Sunday, February 17, 2013 6:06:53 AM UTC-8, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"Stuf4" wrote in message ... From snidely (dps): Stuf4 submitted this idea : From David Spain: snip Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of Cold War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of Ronnie Raygun. Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for a grazing trajectory. Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!" Yes, it probably is. The Soviets may have been paranoid, but they weren't stupid. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov He judged correctly that a US attack wouldn't look like what the data was showing him. It's highly likely that had this happened during the Cold War a person in a similar position would have done the same thing: 1) Hmm.. wrong trajectory 2) Single contact 3) Moving way too fast This btw, also assumes that it was detectable. It's quite possible given the trajectory and speed it wouldn't have been. Hahah. ~ CT -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net


Um, Greg, 1983 WAS during the Cold War- actually right at the hight of it: KAL 007 had just been shot down earlier that month (Sept 1983). Tention was VERY high at the time.
  #20  
Old February 17th 13, 10:49 PM posted to sci.space.history
Stuf4
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Posts: 554
Default Russian Meteor Strike

From Greg Moo
"Stuf4" wrote in message
...

From snidely (dps):
Stuf4 submitted this idea :
From David Spain:

snip
Whoa. Imagine if that happened a few decades ago during the height of
Cold
War tension. Could easily have been misinterpreted as the work of
Ronnie
Raygun.

Wrong orbit for that, too. Minute Man III missiles aren't designed for
a grazing trajectory.


Yes, that is *exactly* the rational, measured response that we could have
expected. "Wait comrade! According to my calculations this grazing
trajectory could not have come from the Yankee Imperialists!"


Yes, it probably is. The Soviets may have been paranoid, but they weren't
stupid.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

He judged correctly that a US attack wouldn't look like what the data was
showing him.

It's highly likely that had this happened during the Cold War a person in a
similar position would have done the same thing:

1) Hmm.. wrong trajectory
2) Single contact
3) Moving way too fast

This btw, also assumes that it was detectable. It's quite possible given
the trajectory and speed it wouldn't have been.


Petrov was dealing with indications from a warning system and absolutely nothing for physical evidence outside of that.

Friday morning was an *actual strike*, with significant damage and casualties.

There's this thing most people recognize called the "fog of war". So detected or not, there are hundreds of phone calls from citizens saying they're under attack. Damage is confirmed. Hospitals are reporting in.

You all can talk as though you know how this would have played out. I maintain that it could easily have been misinterpreted.


Hahah.

~ CT


As to the notion that Petrov "saved the world", that seems like some thick hyperbole. His decision was regarding whether or not to report this detection up the chain. There were levels above him who had the job to correlate information and could easily have figured out it was a false alarm.

If one person is going to be credited with saving the world, I'd be inclined to go with someone like Vasili Arkhipov. But that's a completely different situation.

~ CT
 




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