...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.

Whata Fool wrote:

Interesting, thanks for respecting the data I posted; now you should
take the time to understand it within the context of your statement of
drought in Tennessee, and someone wanting a little relief from that
drought..

I want relief, chances are everybody affected wants relief,
but I think you are still not only reading too much into the official
statements, and you seem to be linking the drought in Tennessee
(note that most of the states east of the Mississippi from the Great
Lakes to the Gulf Coast are in drought mode due to a persistent
lingering Bermuda High) to global warming, and I surmise trying
to link the drought to man made global warming in particular and
the result of man (in the US) burning coal and oil.


This week there was a really interesting NOVA on PBS, it related Global
Warming and Global Dimming. Global Warming is up 1.6 degrees C minus a
Global Dimming of 1.0 C equal +0.6 degrees C overall. The particulate
pollution from coal, cars, ... are keeping the Earth cool. If we clean up
the air to make it healthier to breath, we will really see the effects of
greenhouse gases. Right now, most of the effects are being moderated by
Global Dimming.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/

On Fri, 07 Sep 2007 10:33:13 -0700, columbiaaccidentinvestigation
wrote:

The cited data is for you to make your own judgments from, and it is
up to you to decide what the data presented to you, is showing:
Drought Tendency (national weather service climate prediction center)
showing state wide drought in Tennessee, 30 years of annual amounts
rainfall amounts averaged for Nashville Tennessee (climatological
data ), measured against this years deficit in rainfall amounts for
Nashville Tennessee (unusually low at the start of the year requiring
an unusual event to bring amounts back to normal), correlated with the
actual effects the drought, as documented by the Tennessee Valley
Authority an entity responsible for providing "a reliable supply of
water to cool power plants and meet municipal and industrial needs",
and power generation for "about 8.7 million residents of the Tennessee
Valley."

You seem to be having trouble publicizing global warming,
let me help;

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/08/18/3255/

And if that isn't bad enough,

http://southernstudies.org/facingsou...ear-record.asp

They seem to have a lot of trouble, can you figure out
a way to blame it on global warming?

Now I posted these sources which you cannot dispute,
containing valid credible information that is recent, and up to date.
In your un-verifiable personal anecdotes you counter argued with your
rhetoric, then when you were presented with information you choose to
avoid in your posts, you weakly claim it is something you already
knew, nice try, but pretty much bs and you know it. Now im glad you
understand that "weather happens" but have demonstrated an attitude
that is myopic if an event does not directly effect you, or a
lackadaisical attitude to what others see as a problem if you don't,
but you counter through attempts intellectualize and rationalize the
effects of drought, through rhetorical comments and irrelevant facts.
Now fortunately you are not a policy maker, or somebody with regional
planning responsibilities, as there are others who don't share your
myopic lackadaisical views, and are currently taking action to reduce
the effects of a drought in Tennessee, but someday you might catch
up.

I can get by with about 2 gallons of water a day, or less
than a pint if it really becomes necessary.
People get paid to plan ahead, they don't need me.

Now im glad you are interested in the implications associated
with water collection in regions that depend on local sources, and the
link below from the year 2000, might increase your knowledge of how
regional planners are affected by long term water collection, which
inevitably is connected to the long term weather patterns of the
regions. That is why climatological studies are necessary, as the
link below contains plans for north eastern Mississippi (also
currently being effected by the drought in the Tennessee region)
growth between the years 2010 and 2050, based on the long term
availability of water in the region

They better study the demographics and the job picture
before committing to big water projects.
I don't know when the present "less than 2" children per
couple will result in zero population growth, it depends on how
many women of child bearing age will reach age 50, and when.

Some planners use data of past eras, and that may lead
to errors in planning. But even with good planning, the most
water and sewer problems occur when large numbers of people
migrate, Austin in the early 1980s is an example.

Regardless of the problems, the planners that depend
too heavily on the global warming fortune tellers are bound
to make errors, some people would put more faith in the
Farmers Almanac.

On Sep 7, 2:28 pm, Whata Fool wrote:
On Fri, 07 Sep 2007 10:33:13 -0700, columbiaaccidentinvestigation

wrote:
The cited data is for you to make your own judgments from, and it is
up to you to decide what the data presented to you, is showing:
Drought Tendency (national weather service climate prediction center)
showing state wide drought in Tennessee, 30 years of annual amounts
rainfall amounts averaged for Nashville Tennessee (climatological
data ), measured against this years deficit in rainfall amounts for
Nashville Tennessee (unusually low at the start of the year requiring
an unusual event to bring amounts back to normal), correlated with the
actual effects the drought, as documented by the Tennessee Valley
Authority an entity responsible for providing "a reliable supply of
water to cool power plants and meet municipal and industrial needs",
and power generation for "about 8.7 million residents of the Tennessee
Valley."

You seem to be having trouble publicizing global warming,
let me help;

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/08/18/3255/

And if that isn't bad enough,

http://southernstudies.org/facingsou...tty-nuclear-re...

They seem to have a lot of trouble, can you figure out
a way to blame it on global warming?





Now I posted these sources which you cannot dispute,
containing valid credible information that is recent, and up to date.
In your un-verifiable personal anecdotes you counter argued with your
rhetoric, then when you were presented with information you choose to
avoid in your posts, you weakly claim it is something you already
knew, nice try, but pretty much bs and you know it. Now im glad you
understand that "weather happens" but have demonstrated an attitude
that is myopic if an event does not directly effect you, or a
lackadaisical attitude to what others see as a problem if you don't,
but you counter through attempts intellectualize and rationalize the
effects of drought, through rhetorical comments and irrelevant facts.
Now fortunately you are not a policy maker, or somebody with regional
planning responsibilities, as there are others who don't share your
myopic lackadaisical views, and are currently taking action to reduce
the effects of a drought in Tennessee, but someday you might catch
up.

I can get by with about 2 gallons of water a day, or less
than a pint if it really becomes necessary.
People get paid to plan ahead, they don't need me.

Now im glad you are interested in the implications associated
with water collection in regions that depend on local sources, and the
link below from the year 2000, might increase your knowledge of how
regional planners are affected by long term water collection, which
inevitably is connected to the long term weather patterns of the
regions. That is why climatological studies are necessary, as the
link below contains plans for north eastern Mississippi (also
currently being effected by the drought in the Tennessee region)
growth between the years 2010 and 2050, based on the long term
availability of water in the region

They better study the demographics and the job picture
before committing to big water projects.
I don't know when the present "less than 2" children per
couple will result in zero population growth, it depends on how
many women of child bearing age will reach age 50, and when.

Some planners use data of past eras, and that may lead
to errors in planning. But even with good planning, the most
water and sewer problems occur when large numbers of people
migrate, Austin in the early 1980s is an example.

Regardless of the problems, the planners that depend
too heavily on the global warming fortune tellers are bound
to make errors, some people would put more faith in the
Farmers Almanac.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

What a fool wrote : "I can get by with about 2 gallons of water a day,
or less than a pint if it really becomes necessary. People get paid
to plan ahead, they don't need me"... "They better study the
demographics"

Well good for you, but that once again your personal trivial anecdotes
which are irrelevant to the status of drought in the Tennessee valley,
simply breaks down when confronted with the facts from real sources
that I have cited. Now you can help mitigate the effects of a drought
by conserving water any way you choose, but your actions of consuming
less achieve the same goal whether you are motivated by selfishness,
or concern for others. Then you stated the "people who plan ahead,
they don't need me" but then you give basic advice to those who study
the long term needs of a region, including managing the watersheds
(which you think is important), that's great as you are demonstrating
that you can cure your own myopia, but try not to contradict yourself
when you are showing your concerns..

Then "what a fool" stated the following:"Regardless of the problems,
the planners that depend too heavily on the global warming"

Im sorry, but if you check any of the sources I have cited (see below)
in this discussion the phrase "global warming" is not mentioned, nor
have I mentioned until now, and only in the context of rebutting your
statement, not what you attempted to twist the argument into. So let
me suggest that perhaps it is a matter of your fixation on a certain
topic that is making you interject words that don't exist in to what
you are reading, as you have clearly demonstrated that here.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought Tendency During the Valid Period
Valid September 6 - November, 2007 Released September 6, 2007
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/exp...l_drought.html

Tennessee Valley Authority about us page
"TVA is the nation's largest public power company, with 33,000
megawatts of dependable generating capacity. Through 158 locally owned
distributors, TVA provides power to about 8.7 million residents of the
Tennessee Valley."

Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), dry weather and the river system
page.
http://www.tva.gov/dryweather.htm
"At this point, it would take several sustained, soaking rains - the
kind we usually only see when the Valley experiences the remnants of a
summer hurricane - to raise tributary reservoirs significantly",
"Because of increased demands on municipal water treatment systems,
some municipalities with limited treatment capacity are asking
customers to conserve water to ensure an adequate supply during the
ongoing drought conditions", and "Because hydropower is TVA's cheapest
source of generated generation, the agency may need to purchase more
expensive power from other suppliers if the hot, dry weather
continues."

TVA at a glance
http://www.tva.gov/abouttva/pdf/tva_glance.pdf
"TVA manages the river system as an integrated unit to provide a wide
range of benefits. These
include year-round navigation, reduced flooding, economical electrical
power, recreational
opportunities, improved water quality, and a reliable supply of water
to cool power plants
and meet municipal and industrial needs."


U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought Tendency During the Valid Period
Valid September 6 - November, 2007 Released September 6, 2007
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/exp...l_drought.html

http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx
NASHVILLE INTL AP (406402)
Monthly Totals/Averages
Precipitation (inches)
Year: 2007
2007 Year: Jan 3.32, Feb 1.84, Mar 2.26, Apr 2.75, May 3.30, Jun 2.37,
Jul 1.47, Aug 1.38, Annual 18.69.


NASHVILLE INTL AP (406402)
Monthly Totals/Averages
Precipitation (inches)
Year: 2006
2006: Year: Jan 6.57, Feb 2.69, Mar 2.90, Apr 4.14, May 4.95, Jun
2.19, Jul 2.64, Aug 5.20, Sep 4.00, Oct 2.98, Nov 4.05, Dec 3.41,
Annual 2006 45.72.

NASHVILLE INTL AP (406402)
Monthly Totals/Averages
Precipitation (inches)
Years: 1971-2000 Average : Jan 3.97 , Feb 3.65, Mar 4.87, Apr
3.93, May 5.07, Jun 4.08, Jul 3.77, Aug 3.28, Sep 3.59, Oct 2.87, Nov
4.45, Dec 4.54, Annual 48.07"

On Sep 7, 5:25 am, columbiaaccidentinvestigation
wrote:
On Sep 6, 5:46 pm, Whata Fool wrote:



On Thu, 06 Sep 2007 16:34:54 -0700, columbiaaccidentinvestigation

wrote:
On Sep 6, 4:22 pm, Whata Fool wrote:
On Thu, 06 Sep 2007 10:36:04 -0700, columbiaaccidentinvestigation
On Sep 6, 9:56 am, Whata Fool wrote:
It is a matter of luck, or maybe who does the best rain
dance, 200 miles west of there is getting soaked.

Well I guess you can trivialize the problems with a drought by making
an irrelevant statement, which does not address the fact that if a
populations water supply is dependent upon local collection of water,
that region is highly susceptible to the negative impacts (social and
economic) associated with a drought (or times when rainfall amounts
are below normal for that region).

I am not trying to trivialize anything, why should I make
excuses for the weather (it is weather, not climate in this case).

Why do you think most cities are near rivers? Even small
mountain towns are usually near a stream or natural spring that
flows year round.

Well your reply was just that, basically an attempt to reduce the
relevancy of a statement (Tennessee in drought) based on presentation
of irrelevant facts, or personal anecdotes.

Do you think it rains the same over the entire state?

While I respect all the data collected, it may not reflect
what any particular farmer sees.

So please see the below link the Drought Tendency (national weather
service climate prediction center), and the data showing annual
amounts of rainfall in Tennessee and this years deficit in rainfall
amounts.

Drought is bad, but do you suggest that because there
is a drought in Tennessee in 2007 that it means anything about
future weather or precipitation?

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought Tendency During the Valid Period
Valid September 6 - November, 2007 Released September 6, 2007
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/exp...l_drought.html

http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx
NASHVILLE INTL AP (406402)
Monthly Totals/Averages
Precipitation (inches)
Year: 2007
2007 Year: Jan 3.32, Feb 1.84, Mar 2.26, Apr 2.75, May 3.30, Jun 2.37,
Jul 1.47, Aug 1.38, Annual 18.69.

NASHVILLE INTL AP (406402)
Monthly Totals/Averages
Precipitation (inches)
Year: 2006
2006: Year: Jan 6.57, Feb 2.69, Mar 2.90, Apr 4.14, May 4.95, Jun
2.19, Jul 2.64, Aug 5.20, Sep 4.00, Oct 2.98, Nov 4.05, Dec 3.41,
Annual 2006 45.72.

NASHVILLE INTL AP (406402)
Monthly Totals/Averages
Precipitation (inches)
Years: 1971-2000 Average : Jan 3.97 , Feb 3.65, Mar 4.87, Apr
3.93, May 5.07, Jun 4.08, Jul 3.77, Aug 3.28, Sep 3.59, Oct 2.87, Nov
4.45, Dec 4.54, Annual 48.07"

The state wide averages may not show anything about the
water supply of the populace, while rain means a lot to farmers,
water supply is usually from rivers or wells.

Well water supply for towns have to be deep wells,
which are fed by aquifers that flow long distances and are
fed often by more than one water shed.

It is your type of simplistic approach to weather and
climate data that causes confusion about the issue of climate
change or global warming.

While Tennessee was dry in August, it may get more
rain than wanted in September. Does the record keeping
by month really mean that much if too much rain falls a few
days into the next month?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Interesting, thanks for respecting the data I posted; now you should
take the time to understand it within the context of your statement of
drought in Tennessee, and someone wanting a little relief from that
drought.. The Nashville Tennessee long term rainfall amounts compared
to current rainfall amounts, combined with Drought Tendency (national
weather service climate prediction center) demonstrate local, as well
as regional effects of drought. So in essence you questioned the
correlation of a deficit of rainfall amounts in Nashville Tennessee,
to that of a drought existing, and the regional effects of that
drought. So for purposes of clarity, how about some information (not
from farmers), but from Tennessee Valley Authority which states the
following: "At this point, it would take several sustained, soaking
rains - the kind we usually only see when the Valley experiences the
remnants of a summerhurricane- to raise tributary reservoirs
significantly", "Because of increased demands on municipal water
treatment systems, some municipalities with limited treatment capacity
are asking customers to conserve water to ensure an adequate supply
during the ongoing drought conditions", and "Because hydropower is
TVA's cheapest source of generated generation, the agency may need to
purchase more expensive power from other suppliers if the hot, dry
weather continues." (see below) Now your myopic anecdotes implying
because you were not directly affected by an event, that event has
reduced relevancy is simply just rhetoric which when confronted with
factual citations breaks down...

Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), dry weather and the river system
page.http://www.tva.gov/dryweather.htm
"Dry Weather and the River System
The five-month period of January through May 2007 was the driest such
period in 118 years. Average rainfall in the Tennessee Valley above
Chattanooga has been only 11.6 inches - or 51 percent of normal.
TVA has been operating the river system in conservation mode since
February to ensure as much water is available to fill reservoirs to
recreation target levels and provide other benefits Valley citizens
have come to depend on.
Water is currently being rationed from the tributary reservoirs to
meet downstream minimum flow requirements. TVA's reservoir operating
policy dictates that this be done in an equitable manner from
reservoirs in the tributary system. No additional water above that
required to meet these minimum flow commitments is being released.
Because of the dry conditions, most tributary reservoirs are
significantly below their recreation target levels, typically met on
June 1. On average, reservoirs in the eastern Tennessee Valley were
about 10 feet below where TVA would like them to be by June 1.
In 2004, TVA changed its operating policy to allow increased winter
reservoir levels on most tributary projects. This change allowed more
water to be in the reservoirs at the start of 2007. This, along with
operating the system in conservation mode, means that although water
levels are low, they are nowhere near the driest historical levels.
Runoff, or the water that reaches the river after a rainfall, is less
in the spring and summer months, when growing plants absorb more water
and therefore less water reaches the river system.
At this point, it would take several sustained, soaking rains - the
kind we usually only see when the Valley experiences the remnants of a
summerhurricane- to raise tributary reservoirs significantly.
The long-term forecast is for continued dry conditions.
Some effects that reservoir users will see as the dry weather
continues are described below. More information, including current
reservoir water levels, predicted levels for the next three days, and
observed rainfall and runoff, is available on the River Information
pages. ...

Water Supply
Although TVA manages only surface water, those dependent on
groundwater as a source of water supply may see impacts due to the
quantities of groundwater being pumped from the ground and the lack of
necessary rainfall needed to replenish the groundwater.
Although TVA operations have no effect on groundwater, the ongoing dry
weather and drops in the water table may have an increasing effect on
water supply for localities and individuals that depend on groundwater
(wells) and springs.
TVA is continuing to manage river flows to keep water levels above
municipal and industrial water-intake structures.
Because of increased demands on municipal water treatment systems,
some municipalities with limited treatment capacity are asking
customers to conserve water to ensure an adequate supply during the
ongoing drought conditions. A number of states are urging voluntary
conservation or imposing mandatory restrictions on water use. Some
municipalities have asked citizens to conserve water to ensure there
is enough for the rest of the summer.
TVA is facilitating weekly teleconferences with representatives from
state and federal agencies to discuss the drought conditions and
anticipated effects and to coordinate mitigation measures.
Hydropower Generation
Hydropower generation has been reduced significantly due to the dry
conditions. TVA generates as much power as possible with the water
released to meet minimum flow requirements, but because of the low
rainfall, hydropower generation for January through May was only 54
percent of normal.
Because hydropower is TVA's cheapest source of generated generation,
the agency may need to purchase more expensive power from other
suppliers if the hot, dry weather continues."

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