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When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...



 
 
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  #1  
Old July 2nd 03, 10:03 PM
M. Scott
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

-M. Scott
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  #2  
Old July 2nd 03, 10:27 PM
Mark R. Whittington
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...


"M. Scott" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

-M. Scott
--
Direct access to this group with http://web2news.com
http://web2news.com/?sci.space.policy


NASA will not be publicly embaressed by either event, though it should be.


  #3  
Old July 2nd 03, 11:11 PM
Ceesco
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

Well, I would. Ignoring the Chinese for a second, the psychological
blow of having some "private space company" sending astronauts into
space while the NASA corps sits on Earth is pretty large.


This makes no sense, in either case. Someone is always going to be flying
"before NASA does" if you're going to look at things this way. What
difference would it make if the shuttle, which has been flying for decades,
flew again before these others? What if it flew a week before? A day
before? A day after? I just can't see the point. Some private group will
make a launch at some point, the Chinese will make a launch at some point,
the Europeans will be launching, India at some point will be launching.
That some of these might come while the shuttle fleet is being reviewed
seems like a non-event, or certainly an event made no more remarkable by the
absence of shuttle flights. (Although I'm sure the Newsweek-style
journalists out there will toss in a comment here and there.)


  #4  
Old July 2nd 03, 11:25 PM
Rand Simberg
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

On Thu, 03 Jul 2003 00:04:16 +0200, in a place far, far away, "M.
Scott" made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

I doubt if NASA would consider either an embarrassment.


Well, I would.


You're not NASA.

I certainly wouldn't.


Could you please explain this further? Why would you not consider this
an embarrasment?


Because there's no relationship between what NASA does, and what the
Chinese or Burt Rutan does. They've never claimed to be in a race
with either.

NASA is an embarrassment, but that's the case regardless of what
anyone else does.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
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  #5  
Old July 2nd 03, 11:32 PM
Michael Walsh
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...



"M. Scott" wrote:

Mr. Simberg,

Thanks for your comments. But I must respectfully disagree with your
conclusions.

That remains to be seen.


Although you can never be 100% sure about such things, I'm pretty
confident that the scenario will play out as I've said. The Chinese are
going for a launch late this year, from what I've heard. Even if they
delay a month or two, they'll still beat Atlantis.


It remains to be seen just what the Chinese will do and when they will do
it.

As for the X-Prize, it is possible that Burt Rutan will make a powered test
flight this year, although it is not a sure thing. I doubt that any of the
other
candidates are that close.

None of them, in my opinion, will win the X-Prize this year.

As for the X-Prize
teams, I'm just as confident. If Rutan doesn't do it, Carmack will. If
Carmack doesn't do it, Canadian Arrow will. If Canadian Arrow doesn't,
da Vinci will. And if da Vinci doesn't, Truax/Sprague will.

I doubt if NASA would consider either an embarrassment.


Well, I would. Ignoring the Chinese for a second, the psychological
blow of having some "private space company" sending astronauts into
space while the NASA corps sits on Earth is pretty large.


I don't see why NASA should be in any way embarrassed by whatever
the X-Prize contestants do.

Even worse is
the fact that the low-cost operations of these private space vehicles
will blow a hole in NASA's arguments that "space is difficult."


Why do you believe that a quick trip to 100 km. on a suborbital flight
says anything at all about whether or not "space is difficult"?

Space
may be difficult the way NASA does it, but it doesn't have to be
difficult. And private companies are about to expose that fact.
One NASA response might be to say "well, we are going into orbit,
they're taking 5-minute suborbital rides." I don't think the American
public will make that distinction.


You believe the American public is stupid? It is possible that
you are correct.

The gut feeling reaction will be,
"NASA doesn't haven't astronauts in space, but others do. Hmmm..."

I certainly wouldn't.


Could you please explain this further? Why would you not consider this
an embarrasment?


You are comparing some new vehicle programs with the Shuttle that
requires fixing. If NASA isn't embarassed by having to depend on Soyuz
and Progress vehicles to supply the ISS why should they worry about
a new Chinese entry into space?

Look at it the other way. Should NASA feel good if the Chinese fail
in their manned space flight attempt or if none of the X-Prize candidates
succeeds?

I don't think so.

Mike Walsh


  #6  
Old July 2nd 03, 11:41 PM
Brett Buck
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

M. Scott wrote:
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?


First error is counting you chickens before they are hatched.

Second error is equating the shuttle with either effort. Shenzou
may fly before the next shuttle flight, but it's still 23 years after
the first shuttle flight, and something like 40 years after the nearest
US equivalent, Gemini. Same argument for Rutan - flying something like
45 years after it's nearest NASA counterpart, X-15.

This is taking nothing away from the Chinese and Rutan efforts. But
your take on it - fixing a system that has had 100+ sucessful flights of
immensely higher capability than those you compare it to, is really out
of left field.

Brett

  #7  
Old July 2nd 03, 11:42 PM
M. Scott
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

Hi Ceesco:

That some of these might come while the shuttle fleet is
being reviewed
seems like a non-event, or certainly an event made no more
remarkable by the
absence of shuttle flights.


At the risk of using an analogy from a different era, I would submit
that a large part of the psychological impact of Sputnik I was based on
timing. If the US had launched first, I doubt that the Russians'
beeping ball would have had such an impact as it did, especially given
the fact that Explorer I actually had scientific value.

--
Direct access to this group with http://web2news.com
http://web2news.com/?sci.space.policy
  #8  
Old July 3rd 03, 01:09 AM
Rand Simberg
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

On Thu, 03 Jul 2003 00:56:36 +0200, in a place far, far away, "M.
Scott" made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Because there's no relationship between what NASA does, and what the
Chinese or Burt Rutan does.


I would respectfully disagree. NASA, China, and Rutan are all currently
trying to send people into space. Of course, it's not quite that
simple, but the relationship is there.


It's such a trivial relationship that it has no bearing on whether or
not NASA should be embarrassed.

They've never claimed to be in a race
with either.


I completely agree. But ignoring your "competition" doesn't make the
facts disappear. The TV screens will show taikonauts and test pilots in
space, but not astronauts.


So?

The American public doesn't care much about space.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:
  #9  
Old July 3rd 03, 02:08 AM
Joann Evans
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

"M. Scott" wrote:

[snip]

I doubt if NASA would consider either an embarrassment.


Well, I would. Ignoring the Chinese for a second, the psychological
blow of having some "private space company" sending astronauts into
space while the NASA corps sits on Earth is pretty large.


Agreed in essence, though to most people 'space' means at least low
Earth orbit, even though for legal and X-Prize purposes, it's anything
above 62.5 miles. (Although military pilots could get Astronaut Wings by
getting above 50 miles. Usually on Mercury/Geminy/Apollo, but sometimes
suborbitally on the X-15.)

China will soon be able to do this. SpaceShipOne, while an impressive
first step, won't be viewed in quite the same light by the general
public.

Even worse is
the fact that the low-cost operations of these private space vehicles
will blow a hole in NASA's arguments that "space is difficult."


One does strongly hope for *that* interpretation, but as above,
detractors will still say they wern't really in 'space.' (I recall the
DC-X critics who called it 'Single Stage To 30,000 Feet.' When of
course, reusability, ground handling and VTOVL was what it was
primairily meant to test, and did. But some people will not take you
seriously until you get at least one full orbit done. When that happens,
though...)

Space
may be difficult the way NASA does it, but it doesn't have to be
difficult. And private companies are about to expose that fact.
One NASA response might be to say "well, we are going into orbit,
they're taking 5-minute suborbital rides." I don't think the American
public will make that distinction. The gut feeling reaction will be,
"NASA doesn't haven't astronauts in space, but others do. Hmmm..."


I'm not so sure Joe Average will see it that way, but I'd *like* to
be wrong.

Certainly they *will* be doing what only Right Stuff government test
pilots were doing 40-50 years ago. As is anyone doing sustained Mach 2
on a Concorde.

Again, it'll be a big step in the right direction.
  #10  
Old July 3rd 03, 04:32 AM
John Carmack
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Default When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

Michael Walsh wrote in message ...
"M. Scott" wrote:

Mr. Simberg,

Thanks for your comments. But I must respectfully disagree with your
conclusions.

That remains to be seen.


Although you can never be 100% sure about such things, I'm pretty
confident that the scenario will play out as I've said. The Chinese are
going for a launch late this year, from what I've heard. Even if they
delay a month or two, they'll still beat Atlantis.


It remains to be seen just what the Chinese will do and when they will do
it.

As for the X-Prize, it is possible that Burt Rutan will make a powered test
flight this year, although it is not a sure thing. I doubt that any of the
other
candidates are that close.


I have good confidence that we will conduct a manned flight in a full
size vehicle this year. It will be at the limit of what we can do
without a launch license -- 200,000 lb-sec of total impulse.

Weather permitting, our vehicle is going to do a drop test from under
a cargo helicopter in a couple days to test the main canopy and crush
cone combination in real world use (ballasted to full X-Prize weight).

http://media.armadilloaerospace.com/..._05/loaded.jpg

We are still fighting with FMC over bulk 90% peroxide supply, which
has hurt us a lot, but we have a couple backup plans running.

None of them, in my opinion, will win the X-Prize this year.


I agree. The initial timeline from White Sands Missile Range for our
proposed launch operations from there (everything that requires a
launch license) had the expected completion time for first launch in
2005, after the X-Prize expired. They say we can likely compress some
parts of it, but there is still a lot of crap to wade through.

John Carmack
www.armadilloaerospace.com
 




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