RTF safety costs 700 million

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...&e=6&u=%2Fnm%2
F20040401%2Fsc_nm%2Fspace_nasa_dc
Hey this is my opinion

I assume this link leads to the Reuters story about shuttle RTF cost. The
$700M is just the tip of the iceberg. The Challenger bill was nearly $13B,
according to NASA's testimony to Congress in 1989. The breakdown for the
economic impact of the Challenger disaster is as follows (in $Y2K):

Replacement orbiter: $2.5B
Replacement TDRSS and IUS: $0.33B
Accident investigation and analysis: $1.1B
Hardware redesign: $3.4B
SRB recertification: $0.24B
Cost of cancelled STS flights through FY91: $2.5B
Impact on major NASA science projects: $0.86B
ELVs for stranded shuttle payloads: $1.19B
Upper stages for stranded shuttle payloads: $0.3B
Tracking station extensions: $0.18B
Total: $12.7B

We'll see a similar list in the next 18 months for the Columbia disaster and
RTF. I suspect that the bottom line for that bill will be in the $10B range.

For more info on Challenger, see Chapter 43 of my recent book on U.S. manned
spaceflight in the 20th century.

Later
Ray Schmitt



"bob haller" wrote in message
...
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...&e=6&u=%2Fnm%2
F20040401%2Fsc_nm%2Fspace_nasa_dc
Hey this is my opinion

On 2004-04-03, rschmitt23 wrote:

Replacement orbiter: $2.5B
Replacement TDRSS and IUS: $0.33B
Accident investigation and analysis: $1.1B
Hardware redesign: $3.4B
SRB recertification: $0.24B
Cost of cancelled STS flights through FY91: $2.5B
Impact on major NASA science projects: $0.86B
ELVs for stranded shuttle payloads: $1.19B
Upper stages for stranded shuttle payloads: $0.3B
Tracking station extensions: $0.18B
Total: $12.7B

We'll see a similar list in the next 18 months for the Columbia disaster and
RTF. I suspect that the bottom line for that bill will be in the $10B range.

Well, there will be no replacement orbiter, and no replacement TRDSS
and IUS so that saves $2.83 Billion. There are also no stranded payloads
AFAIK(*), So there is a further $1.49 Billion, making a grand total of
$4.32B of costs that won't occur with Columbia.

I'm not saying that a bunch more items won't show up on the final Columbia
bill, replacing those that certainly won't apprear, just that there were
costs associated with Challenger that won't occur with columbia (OV-105
being one a prime example)


Iain

(*) Admittedly, Any potential hubble mission (eg de-orbit tug) would fit
in these line items, but thats the only (major) one that I can think of

"rschmitt23" wrote in
news:_sFbc.69779$1I5.45547@fed1read01:

I assume this link leads to the Reuters story about shuttle RTF cost.
The $700M is just the tip of the iceberg. The Challenger bill was
nearly $13B, according to NASA's testimony to Congress in 1989. The
breakdown for the economic impact of the Challenger disaster is as
follows (in $Y2K):

Replacement orbiter: $2.5B

As others have pointed out, this cost isn't applicable to Columbia since
the orbiter will not be replaced.

Replacement TDRSS and IUS: $0.33B

Spacehab has filed a claim for $87.7M for its lost Research Double Module
on Columbia. None of the other payloads on the flight will be replaced.

Accident investigation and analysis: $1.1B

The Columbia investigation and debris recovery cost $387.4 million, broken
down as follows (source: AP):

NASA direct costs $18.7M
NASA support of CAIB $112.6M
NASA debris recovery $21.1M
FEMA debris recovery $235M

Hardware redesign: $3.4B
SRB recertification: $0.24B

This category (well, not SRBs, but redesign/recert generally) appears to be
the bulk of the $700M quoted for Columbia.

Cost of cancelled STS flights through FY91: $2.5B

There seems to be some voodoo magic behind this number. Cancelled flights
should properly be treated as a cost avoidance, not a cost (admittedly a
small one due to the low marginal cost per flight), offset by the fact that
most of the non-commercial flights eventually flew anyway.

Impact on major NASA science projects: $0.86B
ELVs for stranded shuttle payloads: $1.19B
Upper stages for stranded shuttle payloads: $0.3B

The equivalent of these categories are impacts to ISS science, cost of
storage for ISS components waiting on shuttle flights, and the cost of HST
end-of-life disposal.

--
JRF

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