A Different Way to 'Picture' Climate Change

My hobby is complexity science, formerly called
chaos theory. The 'integral' so to speak of this
science is the properties that emerge when a
complex dynamic system is poised at the
phase transition between its opposite extremes
in possibility.

The typical example. Imagine water being heated just
to the point where it turns to steam, but held there
at the transition point between water and steam.
At this ...very narrow...temperature range the
system behaves as neither water or air, but
chaotically changing states from one to the
other. It's both and neither water and air.
A cloud.

While persistantly standing poised at this
very delicate state, order spontaneously
emerges. Needless to say, if the temperature
were to be changed even a slight amount
the system would suddenly become either
water or air.

A very small change in system temp produces
a sudden and dramatic change in state.
From water to air.

The earth is a complex dynamic system that stands
poised between dramatic changes of state.

Ice ages and interglacials.

Most people visualize change as linear, or
at least proportional in some predictable
way. The real world doesn't work that way.
It's non linear.

Which means that a ...very small...change in
certain system variables can have a grossly
disproportionate response. It's important to be
able to recognize which complex system variables
would lead to such dramatic effects.

Simply put, the system variables which have the highest
level of connectivity to others are the ones where a
minor change can brink havoc. A variable like temperature
effects, or is connected to, virtually every other system
variable simultaneously. Defining the best example.
It's like changing a fundamental constant.

We should expect and know that changing a global
variable such as temperature should bring dramatic change.
When we see these dramatic effects actually happen, such
as with the sea ice changing so fast, it means we're
there already.

Thirty years out, not too late???

Sorry Charley. It's too late, we're committed to a much
warmer future imho. Now, whether that's really
a bad thing is another topic.

I'm undecided.



s

Jonathan wrote:

[snip complexity theory]

We should expect and know that changing a global
variable such as temperature should bring dramatic change.
When we see these dramatic effects actually happen, such
as with the sea ice changing so fast, it means we're
there already.

Thirty years out, not too late???

Sorry Charley. It's too late, we're committed to a much
warmer future imho.

Welcome to the Neocene, Jonathan.

It's a whole new geological era.

--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

On Tue, 01 May 2007 22:16:37 -0400, Jonathan wrote:

The typical example. Imagine water being heated just
to the point where it turns to steam, but held there
at the transition point between water and steam.
At this ...very narrow...temperature range the
system behaves as neither water or air, but
chaotically changing states from one to the
other. It's both and neither water and air.
A cloud.

While persistantly standing poised at this
very delicate state, order spontaneously
emerges. Needless to say, if the temperature
were to be changed even a slight amount
the system would suddenly become either
water or air.

A very small change in system temp produces
a sudden and dramatic change in state.
From water to air.

How does the water (H2O) become air (N2+O2)???
Maybe you mean water vapor (a gas)?
--
Anon

http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_5795934

Agency warns wildfires loom in Southland
Drought revs up danger
BY KEITH RIDLER, Associated Press
Article Last Updated: 05/01/2007 07:01:00 PM PDT

For more information:
National Interagency Fire Center: http://www.nifc.gov

BOISE, Idaho - The West and Southeast face an increased wildfire risk
this year because of ongoing drought and a summer expected to be
hotter than average, the National Interagency Fire Center reported
Tuesday.

The center identified swaths of those regions - including the lower
third of California, all of Florida and central Alaska - as having
increased chances of catching fire.

"One of the things that strikes me is the breadth of the fire season,
stretching from Florida and Georgia all the way up to Alaska," said
Rick Ochoa, national fire weather program manager at the center.

The National Wildland Fire Outlook report predicts the wildfire danger
for May through August. It is based on past and expected weather
patterns, combined with the predicted amount and dryness of fire fuels
and their potential to ignite.

This year's map looks similar to last year's, said Tom Wordell,
wildland fire analyst at the center.

In 2006, a record 9.8 million acres burned, 2,300 buildings were
destroyed, fire suppression costs totaled $1.4 billion, and 24
wildland firefighters died.

"We're a bit nervous," Wordell said. But he said there were too many
variables to say 2007 will be a repeat of 2006.
Advertisement

In the Southeast, dry conditions in southern Florida have expanded
northward to include the rest of the state and southern portions of
Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.

The wildfire season is already on in Georgia, where 125 square miles
of forest and swampland have burned in the southeast part of the state
in the last two weeks.

In the West, the report predicts a low snowpack will melt away
quickly, causing forests at higher elevations to dry out.

Such conditions may happen in forests in California's Sierra, where
the snowpack is near its lowest level in almost two decades, and in
southwest Montana, central Idaho, the Blue Mountains in northeastern
Oregon and southwestern Washington, and the Appalachian Mountains in
Virginia and North Carolina.

Much of Nevada, western Utah and southern Idaho could be in for an
early and prolonged grassland fire season because of an abundance of
fuel after two wet winters followed by a dry one.

"Once they cure, they're very fire-prone," Wordell said of the
grasslands.

Other areas with an increased fire risk include:

The southern two-thirds of Arizona, partly because of buffelgrass that
grows in what used to be sparsely vegetated areas.

The southern part of New Mexico and western Texas because of abundant
plant growth that is expected to dry out by mid-May.

The lower third of California, which has received less than half of
normal precipitation since October, leaving dried-out vegetation and
areas of freeze-killed vegetation that could catch fire.

Central and southwest Alaska, where low snowpack and a warm summer
caused the center to declare above-normal fire potential.

Among the only areas with below-normal danger are portions of the
Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and small portions of northeast New
Mexico and southeast Colorado.

"Everybody is getting trained up so that we're ready for when it
starts," said Deb Yoder, a smoke jumper with the Bureau of Land
Management, based in Boise, and one of the nation's 15,000 wildland
firefighters. "I'll just make sure I'm ready for whatever happens."

"Jonathan" wrote
My hobby is complexity science, formerly called
chaos theory. The 'integral' so to speak of this
science is the properties that emerge when a
complex dynamic system is poised at the
phase transition between its opposite extremes
in possibility.

What is the probability that a chaotic boundary condition on a 4 dimensional
time evolving manifold, will produce sufficiently complex patterns of
behaviour that they have the ability to predict the behaviour of slower
evolving chaotic local structures and change their behaviour so as to
increase their number and predictive power?

What is the set of chaotic boundary conditions over a 4 manifold which when
observed at some level of detail, are as complex as the physical universe?

What are the required conditions required to produce local soliton like
behaviour in a chaotic time dependent 4 manifold?

On May 24, 11:34 pm, "Vendicar Decarian"
wrote:
"Jonathan" wrote

My hobby is complexity science, formerly called
chaos theory. The 'integral' so to speak of this
science is the properties that emerge when a
complex dynamic system is poised at the
phase transition between its opposite extremes
in possibility.

What is the probability that a chaotic boundary condition on a 4 dimensional
time evolving manifold, will produce sufficiently complex patterns of
behaviour that they have the ability to predict the behaviour of slower
evolving chaotic local structures and change their behaviour so as to
increase their number and predictive power?

What is the set of chaotic boundary conditions over a 4 manifold which when
observed at some level of detail, are as complex as the physical universe?

What are the required conditions required to produce local soliton like
behaviour in a chaotic time dependent 4 manifold?

The answer is 42...

Eric Chomko wrote:
On May 24, 11:34 pm, "Vendicar Decarian"
wrote:
"Jonathan" wrote

My hobby is complexity science, formerly called
chaos theory. The 'integral' so to speak of this
science is the properties that emerge when a
complex dynamic system is poised at the
phase transition between its opposite extremes
in possibility.
What is the probability that a chaotic boundary condition on a 4 dimensional
time evolving manifold, will produce sufficiently complex patterns of
behaviour that they have the ability to predict the behaviour of slower
evolving chaotic local structures and change their behaviour so as to
increase their number and predictive power?

What is the set of chaotic boundary conditions over a 4 manifold which when
observed at some level of detail, are as complex as the physical universe?

What are the required conditions required to produce local soliton like
behaviour in a chaotic time dependent 4 manifold?

The answer is 42...

What was the question again?

--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

"kT" wrote
What was the question again?

What is the probability that a chaotic boundary condition on a 4 dimensional
time evolving manifold, will produce sufficiently complex patterns of
behaviour that they have the ability to predict the behaviour of slower
evolving chaotic local structures and change their behaviour so as to
increase their number and predictive power?

What is the set of chaotic boundary conditions over a 4 manifold which when
observed at some level of detail, are as complex as the physical universe?

What are the required conditions required to produce local soliton like
behaviour in a chaotic time dependent 4 manifold?

Vendicar Decarian wrote:
"kT" wrote
What was the question again?

What is the probability that a chaotic boundary condition on a 4 dimensional
time evolving manifold, will produce sufficiently complex patterns of
behaviour that they have the ability to predict the behaviour of slower
evolving chaotic local structures and change their behaviour so as to
increase their number and predictive power?

What is the set of chaotic boundary conditions over a 4 manifold which when
observed at some level of detail, are as complex as the physical universe?

What are the required conditions required to produce local soliton like
behaviour in a chaotic time dependent 4 manifold?

Oh, that question. The same reason we have laws of physics at all.

Coherence and phase transitions in the early universe.

Color superconductivity and that kind of stuff.

--
Get A Free Orbiter Space Flight Simulator :
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/orbit.html

Vendicar Decarian wrote:
What is the probability that a chaotic boundary condition on a 4
dimensional
time evolving manifold, will produce sufficiently complex patterns of
behaviour that they have the ability to predict the behaviour of slower
evolving chaotic local structures and change their behaviour so as to
increase their number and predictive power?

What is the set of chaotic boundary conditions over a 4 manifold which
when
observed at some level of detail, are as complex as the physical
universe?

What are the required conditions required to produce local soliton like
behaviour in a chaotic time dependent 4 manifold?

"kT" wrote
The same reason we have laws of physics at all.
Coherence and phase transitions in the early universe.
Color superconductivity and that kind of stuff.

Not an answer. Score 5% for hardly even trying.