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Any more news on the cargo ship problem?



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 14th 15, 08:22 AM posted to sci.space.station,sci.space.policy
Brian-Gaff
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 21
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?

I see that they have effectively declared it a loss and in the news group it
seems that the launches are being rescheduled to allow the time to sort out
what happened.
Unfortunately it does not take much to create such a situation and as
nobody can go and look at it, its got to be done using existing data. I bete
its something really simple and stupid, these things usually are at the end
of the day. However if it is diagnosed as a problem that could affect
manned launches, then things get a lot more problematic.
Brian

--
From the Sofa of Brian Gaff Reply address is active
"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...
In article om,
says...

Question about debris:

If a stage 3 separates before stage 2 has finished its burn, would it
simply jump ahead of stage2 only to be caught by still accelerating
stage 2 and the collision would then cause damaghe and debris ?


Not necessarily. I believe that SpaceX had something very much like
this happen on one Falcon 1 flight and it resulted in the lower stage
recontacting the upper stage.

Would would such a sepoaration not have enough "oumph" to allow stage 3
to separate from 2 because 2's acceleration is greater than the push
that 3 makes to get ahead of 2 ?

Or would depris point to an Apollo 13 style explosion ?


An impact could certainly result in structural failure and rapid loss of
pressure in one of the tanks.

The "spinning" video at:
http://www.space.com/29241-glitch-ru...rol-video.html

Indicates more of an agena type of spin (from the HBO "From Earth to the
Moon" along pitch axis rather than just a simple spin along yaw.

Assuming this rotation continues, won't that mess up re-entry
predictions ? Or would a rotating vehicle present fairly similar drag
coefficient ?


This is all estimation. You estimate the frontal area based upon the
average area presented over time. So yes, the rapid, consistent,
spinning allows for a better estimation of drag than for a vehicle is
slowly tumbling (rotating in what appears to be a random manner).

Are autopilots capable of recovering from such a extreme situation ? If
"below" the horizon, the autopilot may command a raise in pitch to reach
targhetted horizon, but that firing may accelerate the spin (when one
should detect the spin and fire against it no natter what your current
attitude is).


I doubt the Progress "autopilot" is that capable. In a situation like
this, the Russians would rely on remote control. But, with the
spinning, reliable communications necessary to command Progress might be
impossible. If you can't command it, it's not going to stop spinning.

Depends on other details too. In this case, it appears there is no fuel
left. If this means no fuel for the reaction control system then there
is no chance to fix the spin no matter what. Off the top of my head, I
don't know if the reaction control system shares fuel tanks with the
main propulsion system on a Progress.

Also, would solar panels still be able to feed Progress with enough
power in this constant rotation to stay awake, or is the ship already
asleep due to power starvation ?


Depends on the details, but it's got some battery capacity too. I've
not heard of power starvation problems. That could be a problem, but
that's secondary compared with complete loss of fuel and/or the
inability to command the Progress.


We should all keep in mind that Progress and Soyuz are closely related.
They fly on the same launcher and share many common systems (like the
service module, which is likely where this mission failed). Without a
reliable US manned space "taxi", the Russians had better figure this one
out quickly in order to keep the station manned.

Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer



  #2  
Old May 14th 15, 10:58 AM posted to sci.space.station,sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2,307
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?

In article ,
says...

I see that they have effectively declared it a loss and in the news group it
seems that the launches are being rescheduled to allow the time to sort out
what happened.
Unfortunately it does not take much to create such a situation and as
nobody can go and look at it, its got to be done using existing data. I bete
its something really simple and stupid, these things usually are at the end
of the day. However if it is diagnosed as a problem that could affect
manned launches, then things get a lot more problematic.


It's a loss because the Progress reentered, uncontrolled, days ago over
the Pacific Ocean if memory serves.

The problem could be with the Soyuz launch vehicle, putting the next
Soyuz manned mission at risk. It has since been postponed and the
passenger, a singer from the UK, has said she is postponing her flight
for personal/family reasons (my guess is that her family does not want
her to die).

Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer
  #3  
Old May 14th 15, 12:23 PM posted to sci.space.station,sci.space.policy
Greg \(Strider\) Moore
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 752
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?

"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...

In article ,
says...

I see that they have effectively declared it a loss and in the news group
it
seems that the launches are being rescheduled to allow the time to sort
out
what happened.
Unfortunately it does not take much to create such a situation and as
nobody can go and look at it, its got to be done using existing data. I
bete
its something really simple and stupid, these things usually are at the
end
of the day. However if it is diagnosed as a problem that could affect
manned launches, then things get a lot more problematic.


It's a loss because the Progress reentered, uncontrolled, days ago over
the Pacific Ocean if memory serves.

The problem could be with the Soyuz launch vehicle, putting the next
Soyuz manned mission at risk. It has since been postponed and the
passenger, a singer from the UK, has said she is postponing her flight
for personal/family reasons (my guess is that her family does not want
her to die).


That would definitely qualify as a "personal/family" reason.

It may also be that Russia has quietly asked her to reschedule while they
sort things out, but want to save a bit of face.

Jeff


--
Greg D. Moore
http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

  #4  
Old May 14th 15, 03:34 PM posted to sci.space.station,sci.space.policy
Brian-Gaff
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 21
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?

Yes, but I think from the records, that would be unlikely to happen. Its a
shame as she has been looking forward to it for some time now, and has done
a lot of work learning stuff.
I'd imagine she will go for it sooner or later.
She is an Ex of Andrew Loyd Webber of course.
Briabn

--
From the Sofa of Brian Gaff Reply address is active
"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...
In article ,
says...

I see that they have effectively declared it a loss and in the news group
it
seems that the launches are being rescheduled to allow the time to sort
out
what happened.
Unfortunately it does not take much to create such a situation and as
nobody can go and look at it, its got to be done using existing data. I
bete
its something really simple and stupid, these things usually are at the
end
of the day. However if it is diagnosed as a problem that could affect
manned launches, then things get a lot more problematic.


It's a loss because the Progress reentered, uncontrolled, days ago over
the Pacific Ocean if memory serves.

The problem could be with the Soyuz launch vehicle, putting the next
Soyuz manned mission at risk. It has since been postponed and the
passenger, a singer from the UK, has said she is postponing her flight
for personal/family reasons (my guess is that her family does not want
her to die).

Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer



  #5  
Old May 14th 15, 03:37 PM posted to sci.space.station,sci.space.policy
Brian-Gaff
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 21
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?

Yes i imagine that might well be so.
Its a very strange event though when you consider how many of these craft
have launched with no issues.
A tumbling or spinning craft which is outside of the automatic parameters
is pretty serious. If the tanks were emptied, could there have been a
leaking thruster perhaps?
Brian

--
From the Sofa of Brian Gaff Reply address is active
"Greg (Strider) Moore" wrote in message
...
"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
...

In article ,
says...

I see that they have effectively declared it a loss and in the news
group it
seems that the launches are being rescheduled to allow the time to sort
out
what happened.
Unfortunately it does not take much to create such a situation and as
nobody can go and look at it, its got to be done using existing data. I
bete
its something really simple and stupid, these things usually are at the
end
of the day. However if it is diagnosed as a problem that could affect
manned launches, then things get a lot more problematic.


It's a loss because the Progress reentered, uncontrolled, days ago over
the Pacific Ocean if memory serves.

The problem could be with the Soyuz launch vehicle, putting the next
Soyuz manned mission at risk. It has since been postponed and the
passenger, a singer from the UK, has said she is postponing her flight
for personal/family reasons (my guess is that her family does not want
her to die).


That would definitely qualify as a "personal/family" reason.

It may also be that Russia has quietly asked her to reschedule while they
sort things out, but want to save a bit of face.

Jeff


--
Greg D. Moore
http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net



  #6  
Old May 14th 15, 07:14 PM posted to sci.space.station,sci.space.policy
Anthony Frost
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 253
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?

In message
Jeff Findley wrote:

It has since been postponed and the
passenger, a singer from the UK, has said she is postponing her flight
for personal/family reasons (my guess is that her family does not want
her to die).


Sarah Brightman wasn't due up until September which would have been the
next but one launch. There are suggestions that she wasn't doing well in
training.

Anthony

  #7  
Old May 15th 15, 02:15 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Bob Haller
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3,197
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?


Design problem? Unlikely. Assembly technician screwing something up?
Probably. The question is was it one time or everything that guy
touched?


--


might have been a cost cutting design change........

that turned out bad
  #8  
Old May 15th 15, 10:33 AM posted to sci.space.station,sci.space.policy
snidely
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,303
Default Any more news on the cargo ship problem?

Lo, on the 5/14/2015, Anthony Frost did proclaim ...
In message
Jeff Findley wrote:

It has since been postponed and the
passenger, a singer from the UK, has said she is postponing her flight
for personal/family reasons (my guess is that her family does not want
her to die).


Sarah Brightman wasn't due up until September which would have been the
next but one launch. There are suggestions that she wasn't doing well in
training.


It is an awfully expensive way to practice vomiting.

/dps

--
Maybe C282Y is simply one of the hangers-on, a groupie following a
future guitar god of the human genome: an allele with undiscovered
virtuosity, currently soloing in obscurity in Mom's garage.
Bradley Wertheim, theAtlantic.com, Jan 10 2013
 




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