Mysterious Russian SLBM launch?

Figure this one out:
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/11/...nmissile.shtml

Pat

Pat Flannery wrote:
Figure this one out:
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/11/...nmissile.shtml

Pat

The reporting itself seems credible. The original author of
the story, Martin Sieff, UPI's Managing Editor of International
Affairs, has received three nominations for the Pulitzer Prize
for International Reporting.

"http://www.spacewar.com/news/radar-05zb.html"
"http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/AuthorBiography.aspx?AuthorId=180"

I did find it interesting that the Mr. Sieff's source mentioned
that "[the missile] was in the outer limit of the radar's
capability". Hmmm.

- Ed Kyle

In article .com, Ed Kyle
says...

Pat Flannery wrote:
Figure this one out:
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/11/...nmissile.shtml

The reporting itself seems credible. The original author of
the story, Martin Sieff, UPI's Managing Editor of International
Affairs, has received three nominations for the Pulitzer Prize
for International Reporting.

OK, but I'm not sure what the "mystery" is here that needs figuring
out.

The Russians launched an SLBM. They do that from time to time, just
to make sure the missiles still work and the crews still know how to
fire them. As do the Americans, the British, and the French. Details
vary and in some cases are classified, but is there any reason to
suspect the recent Russian launch was anything other than an ordinary
live-fire readiness exercise?


--
*John Schilling * "Anything worth doing, *
*Member:AIAA,NRA,ACLU,SAS,LP * is worth doing for money" *
*Chief Scientist & General Partner * -13th Rule of Acquisition *
*White Elephant Research, LLC * "There is no substitute *
* for success" *
*661-951-9107 or 661-275-6795 * -58th Rule of Acquisition *

On Thu, 17 Nov 2005 15:12:42 -0600, John Schilling wrote
(in article ):

In article .com, Ed Kyle
says...

Pat Flannery wrote:
Figure this one out:
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/11/...nmissile.shtml

The reporting itself seems credible. The original author of
the story, Martin Sieff, UPI's Managing Editor of International
Affairs, has received three nominations for the Pulitzer Prize
for International Reporting.

OK, but I'm not sure what the "mystery" is here that needs figuring
out.

The Russians launched an SLBM. They do that from time to time, just
to make sure the missiles still work and the crews still know how to
fire them. As do the Americans, the British, and the French. Details
vary and in some cases are classified, but is there any reason to
suspect the recent Russian launch was anything other than an ordinary
live-fire readiness exercise?

Missile test launches are publicized in advance due to treaty
obligations and on general principles to avoid anyone getting itchy
fingers on Big Red Buttons of their own. The news article cited
indicated that the most recent Russian SLBM test launch was some time
ago, back in September I think it said, hence the mystery of the
matter.



--
"Fame may be fleeting but obscurity is forever." ~Anonymous
"I believe as little as possible and know as much as I can."
~Todd Stuart Phillips
www.angryherb.net

John Schilling wrote:

The Russians launched an SLBM. They do that from time to time, just
to make sure the missiles still work and the crews still know how to
fire them. As do the Americans, the British, and the French.
Typically, all of these countries announce (at least to the other
members of the nuke club) the fact they are going test launch anything
that looks like ballistic missile launch. This sensible policy dates
from the cold war fears that an unannouced test might unexpectedly turn
into a live fire exercise...

According to the mosnew article, this was an unannounced test. However,
I don't rate mosnews to be very high on the credibility scale. The
original article http://www.spacewar.com/ doesn't make any mention it
being a secret test.

Ed Kyle wrote:
Pat Flannery wrote:
Figure this one out:
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/11/...nmissile.shtml

Pat

The reporting itself seems credible. The original author of
the story, Martin Sieff, UPI's Managing Editor of International
Affairs, has received three nominations for the Pulitzer Prize
for International Reporting.

"http://www.spacewar.com/news/radar-05zb.html"

"http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/AuthorBiography.aspx?AuthorId=180"

I did find it interesting that the Mr. Sieff's source mentioned
that "[the missile] was in the outer limit of the radar's
capability". Hmmm.

- Ed Kyle

Note that the original story does not list a date for the
missile launch. It only says that the launch occurred
"last weekend". Could the story have been delayed
getting into print, so that "last weekend" turned into
"a couple of weekends ago"?

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:

orId=180"

I did find it interesting that the Mr. Sieff's source mentioned
that "[the missile] was in the outer limit of the radar's
capability". Hmmm.



The missile's trajectory was interesting- fired westward over northern
Russia to impact off the northwest coast.
So the missile would have been traveling away from the Japanese radar,
which probably accounts for it being at the limits of delectability.
Still, launching SLBMs unannounced is odd. If the Russian sub was being
tracked by one of our attack boats, I can imagine the effect onboard
when they detect the sound of one of its missile doors opening.

Pat

John Schilling wrote:

OK, but I'm not sure what the "mystery" is here that needs figuring
out.

The Russians launched an SLBM. They do that from time to time, just
to make sure the missiles still work and the crews still know how to
fire them. As do the Americans, the British, and the French. Details
vary and in some cases are classified, but is there any reason to
suspect the recent Russian launch was anything other than an ordinary
live-fire readiness exercise?



They didn't announce the test; apparently they normally do announce them.

Pat

Pat Flannery wrote:
Ed Kyle wrote:

orId=180"

I did find it interesting that the Mr. Sieff's source mentioned
that "[the missile] was in the outer limit of the radar's
capability". Hmmm.



The missile's trajectory was interesting- fired westward over northern
Russia to impact off the northwest coast.
So the missile would have been traveling away from the Japanese radar,
which probably accounts for it being at the limits of delectability.
Still, launching SLBMs unannounced is odd. If the Russian sub was being
tracked by one of our attack boats, I can imagine the effect onboard
when they detect the sound of one of its missile doors opening.

Unannounced to the US, or unannounced to Japan? There is a (big)
difference.

-jake

Jake McGuire wrote:

Unannounced to the US, or unannounced to Japan? There is a (big)
difference.



I went looking around for more data on this test without much luck; but
the Russians are getting ready to put a new SLBM into service named
Bulava (our codename SS-NX-30), which is a sea-based version of the
Topol-M mobil ICBM (or maybe not; see the article)- so I wonder if this
test was connected to that missile? It uses a MARV warhead to defeat ABM
systems: http://www.missilethreat.com/missile...30_russia.html

Pat