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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
Considering that I've not read the full legal framework for ISS, I'm
wondering if China could invite China for a docking with the SM. The module is russian ground as I understand it, and with Tito's flight in mind, I wonder what US could do to stop it. This would of course ruin the partnership, but conserning the current US debate about the future of human spaceflight and the possible rethrawal from ISS this is an relevant question. Sincerely Bjørn Ove |
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
B. Isaksen wrote:
Considering that I've not read the full legal framework for ISS, I'm wondering if China could invite China for a docking with the SM. The module is russian ground as I understand it, and with Tito's flight in mind, I wonder what US could do to stop it. This would of course ruin the partnership, but conserning the current US debate about the future of human spaceflight and the possible rethrawal from ISS this is an relevant question. I don't think anything could physically be done to prevent it. The US would either try to talk Russia and China out of it, or announce their full support (much more likely, IMO). IIRC, Shenzhou's docking equipment is APAS, so that would require use of the US-owned PMA-2 (PMA-3 is currently unusable, and also US-owned) as a docking location, since their aren't any suitable ports on the Russian side. I don't think any such mission is likely for a few years yet: I think China would like to gain experience with human spaceflight and on-orbit maneuvering (perhaps try stationkeeping with a discarded Shenzhou orbital module) before they commit to a demanding ISS mission. --Chris |
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
Chris Bennetts wrote:
I don't think any such mission is likely for a few years yet: I think China would like to gain experience with human spaceflight and on-orbit maneuvering (perhaps try stationkeeping with a discarded Shenzhou orbital module) before they commit to a demanding ISS mission. ISS partners would demand that China first demonstrate that its systems are reliable enough to perform safe docking. This means China will have to do its own dockings with its own equipment a few times. In terms of granting permission for China to dock to ISS, it will be Interesting. I think that China would have to be "sponsored" by at least one ISS partner, a bit like Tito was sponsored by Russia (in exchange for lots of money, of course). And for one Partner to "sponsor" China, China will have to give that partner something in exchange. And they would need to pay Russia and USA for training so that they are permitted to enter the station (as did Tito and the african guy). In terms of docking, the USA has no choice but to allow "manual" docking since USA doesn't have any automated system. But Russia may be in a position to demand that any Chinese ship be equipped with either Kurs or the system used by ATV in order to ensure safe docking to the russian segment. I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it would require a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling NASA to allow China to dock, against NASA's objections. For China to be allowed to dock to Russia, it only would need to show Russia enough money. Depending on how fast China can get itself up to speed, it would be most interesting if China were to offer its crafts as CRVs to boost station capacity to 6, saving the USA billions in develooping its own CRV. In the visible term, I think that this is the only contribution China could make. But from a diplomatic point of view, it would a spendid coup if China were to become a contributing partner to ISS with the provision of an essential service (CRV capacity). Right now, China is very isolated. But such a membership in ISS would bring China into the select group of space faring nations with its non trivial contribution. The chinese government must decide if the goal of its space programme is to be just a "me too" thing, or whether it will use its space programme to force the rest of the world to respect and include China. In the former case, it means China builds its own station. In the later case, it means that China joins ISS. In the long term, China gains nothing if it builds its own station. But it gains lots of respect from the world community if it joins the ISS. |
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
Chris Bennetts wrote in
: B. Isaksen wrote: Considering that I've not read the full legal framework for ISS, I'm wondering if China could invite China for a docking with the SM. I assume you meant "Russia could invite China." I don't believe the ISS IGAs cover the scenario of a one-shot docking by a non-partner, but to become a partner requires the full concurrence of all the other partners. I don't think anything could physically be done to prevent it. The US would either try to talk Russia and China out of it, or announce their full support (much more likely, IMO). Probably true. IIRC, Shenzhou's docking equipment is APAS, so that would require use of the US-owned PMA-2 (PMA-3 is currently unusable, and also US-owned) as a docking location, since their aren't any suitable ports on the Russian side. Definitely true. I don't think any such mission is likely for a few years yet: I think China would like to gain experience with human spaceflight and on-orbit maneuvering (perhaps try stationkeeping with a discarded Shenzhou orbital module) before they commit to a demanding ISS mission. I'd go farther: I think the Chinese have no intention of docking to ISS until they've built their own mini-station. They have a strong independent streak and like to do things themselves first. -- JRF Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail, check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and think one step ahead of IBM. |
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
Ben Sisko wrote in
: ISS partners would demand that China first demonstrate that its systems are reliable enough to perform safe docking. This means China will have to do its own dockings with its own equipment a few times. The ISS partners would be on very shaky ground if they demanded a more rigorous testing program for Shenzhou than is currently being done with ESA's ATV and Japan's HTV. I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it would require a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling NASA to allow China to dock, against NASA's objections. I find this ludicrous. The president is more likely to oppose a Chinese docking to ISS than NASA. And there would be sound US strategic reasons to let the Chinese dock to ISS, or even take them in as a partner. Even a one-shot docking would allow US experts their first good look at the inside of a Shenzhou. And if you think the US would consent to a Shenzhou docking without being allowed inside to inspect for hazardous materials, think again. Shenzhou is equipped with an APAS docking mechanism, which is compatible only with the US segment of ISS. The price of a "no-inspection" demand by China is that the US hatches stay closed, period. Likewise, making China an ISS partner would be a good way for the US to maintain visibility into their program. Depending on how fast China can get itself up to speed, it would be most interesting if China were to offer its crafts as CRVs to boost station capacity to 6, saving the USA billions in develooping its own CRV. In the visible term, I think that this is the only contribution China could make. That would put China in the "critical path" for the station, to which the US would be strongly opposed. The chinese government must decide if the goal of its space programme is to be just a "me too" thing, or whether it will use its space programme to force the rest of the world to respect and include China. In the former case, it means China builds its own station. In the later case, it means that China joins ISS. In the long term, China gains nothing if it builds its own station. I disagree. So far, China has left the Shenzhou orbital modules in orbit for months as reconnaissance spacecraft. Building their own ministation out of these modules would provide much more capability, and would not require them to "open up" their program to the US as it would if they joined ISS. The Chinese would very likely want to pull all the photoreconnaissance equipment from any Shenzhou destined for ISS. Mind you, the Chinese may be able to afford running their ministation in parallel with ISS, unlike the Russians. I doubt it, but it's not impossible. -- JRF Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail, check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and think one step ahead of IBM. |
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
"Jorge R. Frank" wrote:
The ISS partners would be on very shaky ground if they demanded a more rigorous testing program for Shenzhou than is currently being done with ESA's ATV and Japan's HTV. ESA has been in space for quite some time already. And both ESA and Japan have "opened their books" to the ISS partners and cooperated in designs. Think of it more as a cooperating development, with Japan probably getting a lot of help from NASA and ESA to make sure it does things right. China, at this point, is truly the new kid on the block with its systems designed/modified by itself without consultations with ISS partners. So there s good reason at this point in time to treat china differently than ESA and Japan. I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it would require a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling NASA to allow China to dock, against NASA's objections. I find this ludicrous. The president is more likely to oppose a Chinese docking to ISS than NASA. Do you seriously think NASA would be comfortable with an "unknown" Chinese craft docking and potentially damaging PMA2 ? They were affraid Tito would jeoperdize the USA segment and he came in with a proven approved spacecraft. And there would be sound US strategic reasons to let the Chinese dock to ISS, or even take them in as a partner. Even a one-shot docking would allow US experts their first good look at the inside of a Shenzhou. But this is more a question of spying than NASA itself. NASA would object on technical grounds and safety, but would be overriden by the whitehouse because of the potential information that would benefit certain departments of the government. The thing is that for such a chinese mission to ISS, The inspections wouldn't be in space, they would be on the ground well before it is launched. inside to inspect for hazardous materials, think again. Shenzhou is equipped with an APAS docking mechanism, which is compatible only with the US segment of ISS. Since Shenzhou is not re-usable, what prevents China from building a few orbital modules with the russian docking hardware and software ? Likewise, making China an ISS partner would be a good way for the US to maintain visibility into their program. Making China a partner is quite different from allowing a chinese visit to ISS. That would put China in the "critical path" for the station, to which the US would be strongly opposed. It doesn't have to be a critical path to the USA. Currently, the USA has its shuttles and reluctantly Soyuz as part of critical path. It can remain that way. It can choose not to increase its crewing of station if it decides that a china provided CRV is not reliable etc. But other partners may decide to take China up on its offer and make use of the extra crewing capacity that a Shenzhou could bring. And when/if the USA does produce some CRV, then the USA can increase its crewing and perhaps force China to stop using Shenzhou as CRV and just allow China 10 day visits. And think of the 0-g experience of eating rice with chop sticks. (which implies that China would insist a rice cooker be installed on station). The Chinese would very likely want to pull all the photoreconnaissance equipment from any Shenzhou destined for ISS. Duh ! They wouldn't pull all that equipment out. If each capsule is built for each launch, then a capsule destined to ISS would be built with a civilian configuration and not a military config. Mind you, the Chinese may be able to afford running their ministation in parallel with ISS, unlike the Russians. I doubt it, but it's not impossible. In my mind, their mini station is just a necessary step for China to prove itself as a capable space faring nation in order to be accepted in the various "clubs" of space faring nations. I wouldn't be surprised to see India next to want to become space faring. (Just to spite Pakistan). |
#8
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
Ben Sisko wrote in
: "Jorge R. Frank" wrote: The ISS partners would be on very shaky ground if they demanded a more rigorous testing program for Shenzhou than is currently being done with ESA's ATV and Japan's HTV. ESA has been in space for quite some time already. And both ESA and Japan have "opened their books" to the ISS partners and cooperated in designs. Think of it more as a cooperating development, with Japan probably getting a lot of help from NASA and ESA to make sure it does things right. China, at this point, is truly the new kid on the block with its systems designed/modified by itself without consultations with ISS partners. So there s good reason at this point in time to treat china differently than ESA and Japan. Differently, but not necessarily more rigorously, provided that China provides the US the same visibility into their program that ESA and Japan have done. I do find that unlikely. I feel that for China to be allowed to dock on the USA side, it would require a diplomatic decision with the USA president telling NASA to allow China to dock, against NASA's objections. I find this ludicrous. The president is more likely to oppose a Chinese docking to ISS than NASA. Do you seriously think NASA would be comfortable with an "unknown" Chinese craft docking and potentially damaging PMA2 ? I did not say NASA would be "comfortable" with it. I said NASA would be less likely to oppose it than the president. And there would be sound US strategic reasons to let the Chinese dock to ISS, or even take them in as a partner. Even a one-shot docking would allow US experts their first good look at the inside of a Shenzhou. But this is more a question of spying than NASA itself. NASA would object on technical grounds and safety, but would be overriden by the whitehouse because of the potential information that would benefit certain departments of the government. Hypothetically, if the president invited China to dock with ISS, he would leave to NASA to define the details of the hoops the Chinese would have to jump to pass safety concerns. Now, if hypothetically the Chinese complained about that and the administration pressured NASA to relax their safety standards, that would be another matter (and is exactly what happened with the Russians and ISS during the Clinton administration). The thing is that for such a chinese mission to ISS, The inspections wouldn't be in space, they would be on the ground well before it is launched. Well, Duh! Either way, the details of the spacecraft become known to the US. inside to inspect for hazardous materials, think again. Shenzhou is equipped with an APAS docking mechanism, which is compatible only with the US segment of ISS. Since Shenzhou is not re-usable, what prevents China from building a few orbital modules with the russian docking hardware and software ? Nothing, except cost. Likewise, making China an ISS partner would be a good way for the US to maintain visibility into their program. Making China a partner is quite different from allowing a chinese visit to ISS. Well, Duh! I'm just pointing out that the US would reap some strategic benefit from doing so. Whether that will offset the disadvantages is a question for the administration. That would put China in the "critical path" for the station, to which the US would be strongly opposed. It doesn't have to be a critical path to the USA. It certainly would be, once there's an actual Shenzhou up there with actual crew members depending on it. The Chinese would very likely want to pull all the photoreconnaissance equipment from any Shenzhou destined for ISS. Duh ! They wouldn't pull all that equipment out. If each capsule is built for each launch, then a capsule destined to ISS would be built with a civilian configuration and not a military config. Of course. That of course means that the opportunity cost of one civilian Shenzhou is the loss of one military Shenzhou flight. It remains to be seen whether the Chinese will be willing to pay that opportunity cost. Mind you, the Chinese may be able to afford running their ministation in parallel with ISS, unlike the Russians. I doubt it, but it's not impossible. In my mind, their mini station is just a necessary step for China to prove itself as a capable space faring nation in order to be accepted in the various "clubs" of space faring nations. Possibly. But the ministation will come first, and it will likely not be operational much before the 2008 Olympics. So the question of China's participation in ISS is a long way off. I wouldn't be surprised to see India next to want to become space faring. (Just to spite Pakistan). Or to spite China. India and China are rivals, too... just read India's press reaction to Shenzhou 5. -- JRF Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail, check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and think one step ahead of IBM. |
#9
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
Chris Bennetts wrote in message ...
IIRC, Shenzhou's docking equipment is APAS, so that would require use of the US-owned PMA-2 (PMA-3 is currently unusable, and also US-owned) as a docking location, since their aren't any suitable ports on the Russian side. This is actually not true. The Russian Segment Service Module zenith port is hybrid, which is field replaceable by an APAS (meaning that the current cone adaptor could be changed out - on orbit - into a functional APAS. |
#10
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Can Russia invite China to ISS?
On or about 18 Oct 2003 19:25:43 GMT, Jorge R. Frank made the sensational claim that:
Or to spite China. India and China are rivals, too... just read India's press reaction to Shenzhou 5. Link? -- This is a siggy | To E-mail, do note | This space is for rent It's properly formatted | who you mean to reply-to | Inquire within if you No person, none, care | and it will reach me | Would like your ad here |
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