Machines will achieve human-level intelligence in the 2028 to 2150 range: poll

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Machines will achieve human-level intelligence in the 2028 to 2150 range:
poll
April 26, 2011 by Editor
Machines will achieve human-level intelligence by 2028 (median estimate: 10%
chance), by 2050 (median estimate: 50% chance), or by 2150 (median estimate:
90% chance), according to an informal poll at the Future of Humanity
Institute (FHI) Winter Intelligence conference on machine intelligence in
January.
"Human-level machine intelligence, whether due to a de novo AGI (artificial
general intelligence) or biologically inspired/emulated systems, has a
macroscopic probability to occurring mid-century," the report authors, Dr.
Anders Sandberg and Dr. Nick Bostrom, both researchers at FHI, found.
"This development is more likely to occur from a large organization than as
a smaller project. The consequences might be potentially catastrophic, but
there is great disagreement and uncertainty about this - radically positive
outcomes are also possible."
Other findings:
a.. Industry, academia and the military are the types of organizations
most likely to first develop a human-level machine intelligence.
b.. The response to "How positive or negative are the ultimate
consequences of the creation of a human-level (and beyond human-level)
machine intelligence likely to be?" were bimodal, with more weight given to
extremely good and extremely bad outcomes.
c.. Of the 32 responses to "How similar will the first human-level machine
intelligence be to the human brain?," 8 thought "very biologically inspired
machine intelligence" the most likely, 12 thought "brain-inspired AGI" and
12 thought "entirely de novo AGI" was the most likely.
d.. Most participants were only mildly confident of an eventual win by IBM's
Watson over human contestants in the "Jeopardy!" contest.

"This survey was merely an informal polling of an already self-selected
group, so the results should be taken with a large grain of salt," the
authors advise. "The small number of responses, the presence of visiting
groups with presumably correlated views, the simple survey design and the
limitations of the questionnaire all contribute to make this of limited
reliability and validity."

"While the validity is questionable, the results are consistent with earlier
surveys," Sandberg told KurzweilAI. "The kind of people who respond to this
tend to think mid-century human-level AI is fairly plausible, with a tail
towards the far future.Opinions on the overall effect were not divided but
bimodal - it will likely be really good or really bad, not something in
between."

Brent Allsop, a Senior Software Engineer at 3M, has started a "Human Level
AI Milestone?" Canonizer (consensus building open survey system) to
encourage public participation in this interesting question in the survey:
"Can you think of any milestone such that if it were ever reached you would
expect human-level machine intelligence to be developed within five years
thereafter?"

Ref.: Sandberg, A. and Bostrom, N. (2011): Machine Intelligence Survey,
Technical Report
#2011-1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University: pp. 1-12. URL:
www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2011-1.pdf

On Apr 30, 2:53*am, Mr.B1ack wrote:
"NSA TORTURE TECHNOLOGY, NEWS and RESEARCH"

wrote:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/machines-w...evel-intellige...

Machines will achieve human-level intelligence in the 2028 to 2150 range:

* *Further towards the 2050 end of the scale.

* *"Intelligence" is a VERY hard subject.

* *And, given how little it takes to ****-up human
* *intelligence, avoiding "Artifical Insanity" is
* *gonna be a MAJOR issue.

Good points. Let's work towards "liberal" thinking to see good
results, not conservative/looneytunarian/teabaggette thinking which
only produces Bush 1/2 results.