Current US military thinking on launch needs

An interesting PDF slideshow:

http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/apio/p...erspective.pdf

DoD Space Transportation Perspective

Colonel Jim Knauf
Chief, Space Support & Force Application
Directorate of Space Acquisition
Office of the Undersecretary of the Air Force

NASA Exploration Transportation Strategic Roadmap
Federal Advisory Committee Meeting #1

3-4 February 2005
Orlando, Florida

Allen Thomson wrote:
An interesting PDF slideshow:

http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/apio/p...erspective.pdf

DoD Space Transportation Perspective


13 Mbytes for 19 pages! Don't these guys know how
to compress their PDFs?

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:

13 Mbytes for 19 pages! Don't these guys know how
to compress their PDFs?

No. Remember, it's the government.

Allen Thomson wrote:
An interesting PDF slideshow:
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/apio/p...erspective.pdf
DoD Space Transportation Perspective


Here's an abbreviated summary for those who
don't want to wait the hourlong download.

Air Force wants two EELV's through 2020, at least.

Air Force will launch its last Delta II in FY2007.
Delta II will then transition to NASA-only.

Air Force plans to add a smaller "Operationally
Responsive" launcher by 2010. The Falcon
Demonstration program is the starting point for
this effort.

Air Force is moving away from a commercial launch
acquisition model for EELV, etc. It will now
use fixed-plus type acquisition.

EELV launch plans show that Boeing Decatur will
be hurting for years. Atlas V has already been
assigned an average of at least 4 launches per
year 2007-2011. Delta IV only has an average
of one launch per year during the same period.
*No more launches remain to be assigned for 2007.*
Only three more EELV missions remain to be assigned
for 2008. Six or more per year are still up for
grabs starting in 2009.

The presentation mentions that the EELVs can
meet all of NASA's projected needs.

- Ed Kyle

In article . com,
Ed Kyle wrote:
Air Force will launch its last Delta II in FY2007.
Delta II will then transition to NASA-only.

Of course, the USAF hasn't actually launched any Delta IIs for quite a
while now, and neither has NASA. Both buy Delta II launches from Boeing.

A cynic would say that Delta II's departure from USAF service has been
predicted before... It's not likely to actually happen unless they get
some competing launchers in that size range.
--
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend." | Henry Spencer
-- George Herbert |

Ed Kyle wrote:

Here's an abbreviated summary for those who
don't want to wait the hourlong download.

Air Force wants two EELV's through 2020, at least.


Besides the EELV info, there are a couple of slides on a study of a 10K
to LEO launcher with a reusable flyback booster and expendable upper
stage.

"Ed Kyle" wrote in message
ups.com...
Allen Thomson wrote:
An interesting PDF slideshow:
http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/apio/p...erspective.pdf
DoD Space Transportation Perspective


Here's an abbreviated summary for those who
don't want to wait the hourlong download.

Air Force wants two EELV's through 2020, at least.

Air Force will launch its last Delta II in FY2007.
Delta II will then transition to NASA-only.

Air Force plans to add a smaller "Operationally
Responsive" launcher by 2010. The Falcon
Demonstration program is the starting point for
this effort.

This combined with SpaceX shows Lockheed had the right idea to get out of
this market.
Boeing if smart will soon follow and retire the Delta II.


Air Force is moving away from a commercial launch
acquisition model for EELV, etc. It will now
use fixed-plus type acquisition.

EELV launch plans show that Boeing Decatur will
be hurting for years. Atlas V has already been
assigned an average of at least 4 launches per
year 2007-2011. Delta IV only has an average
of one launch per year during the same period.
*No more launches remain to be assigned for 2007.*
Only three more EELV missions remain to be assigned
for 2008. Six or more per year are still up for
grabs starting in 2009.

The sanctions on Boeing really come across as devastating when shown
in this form. Boeing could be forced out of the launch business if the
sanctions are not lifted before the next buy.

The Air Force, if I counted right, is planning 71 EELV launches before
2014.
This should give a very good safety record even without NASA or commercial
launches.
In 2012-2013 they are planning 20 launches.
Between 2014 and 2019 the EELV launch market could be getting a little
tight.
8-12 Air Force, a few commercial and 10-14 NASA (most for NASA heavies)
could add
up to well over 40 cores.
If SpaceX is competitive in this market as now planned that will not be the
case.


The presentation mentions that the EELVs can
meet all of NASA's projected needs.

Now if they can just convince NASA!

One interesting side note almost all of the launches purchased so far are
smaller rockets.
This is partially caused by still using the Titan but
either the Air Force is going for smaller satellites or
somewhere in Buy 3 and 4 are some large satellites and rockets.

On 23 Feb 2005 00:01:12 -0800, in a place far, far away, "Mike Chan"
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way
as to indicate that:

Besides the EELV info, there are a couple of slides on a study of a 10K
to LEO launcher with a reusable flyback booster and expendable upper
stage.

That's probably ARES.

Henry Spencer wrote:
In article . com,
Ed Kyle wrote:
Air Force will launch its last Delta II in FY2007.
Delta II will then transition to NASA-only.

Of course, the USAF hasn't actually launched any Delta IIs for quite
a
while now, and neither has NASA. Both buy Delta II launches from
Boeing.


On the slide, it actually says:
"Last AF Delta II - Transfer to NASA".

The Air Force fostered the development of Delta II
in the same way that it fostered EELV, so it shows
up on Power Point presentations given by Colonels
as an Air Force asset, even though it is contracted
commercially. But Boeing hasn't sold Delta II
launches to anyone but the U.S. Government lately,
so the Government has de-facto control.

A cynic would say that Delta II's departure from USAF service has
been
predicted before... It's not likely to actually happen unless they
get
some competing launchers in that size range.


I remember when they shut down the production
line - when they shipped the last Delta to the
Cape - in the mid 1980s - 150-ish Delta launches
ago. But times are changing. The Air Force has
shut down Titan II and discontinued use of Atlas II.
They're prepping for the last Titan IVs - after
which hundreds of their favorite contractors will
be pink-slipped.

By allowing two EELVs, the Air Force has been
forced to use them. To fund them (and it's
costing a lot more than originally planned to fund
them), it appears that they've been forced to
divest other space launch assets.

Trimmed to only NASA missions, Delta II launch
costs will rise. Then the writing will finally be
on the wall for Thor-Delta - the last Cold War
"missile gap" rocket - unless a problem arises
with the EELVs.

- Ed Kyle

In article . com,
Ed Kyle wrote:
A cynic would say that Delta II's departure from USAF service has
been predicted before...

By allowing two EELVs, the Air Force has been
forced to use them. To fund them (and it's
costing a lot more than originally planned to fund
them), it appears that they've been forced to
divest other space launch assets.

The big question, though, is whether the Air Force will subsidize EELV
launch services centrally for all military projects.

An EELV still *costs more* than a Delta II -- quite a bit more, like
double or worse -- and a lot of projects even within the USAF will balk at
being forced to buy overpriced launches out of *their* budgets just to
keep the EELV mafia happy. To say nothing of what the Navy will think.
Without central subsidies, there is going to be a lot of pressure to
continue to allow Delta-II-sized birds to fly on Delta II.

Just because the EELV bureaucrats have gotten high-level blessing for a
legislated monopoly (well, duopoly) doesn't mean the rank and file will
simply salute and comply. That's not the way it works in practice.

Things might be different if the Light EELV configurations, which were
meant more or less as Delta II replacements, hadn't disappeared.
--
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend." | Henry Spencer
-- George Herbert |