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#41
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
kevin wrote:
In article , says... Concorde -never- cut it. It's a perfect example of creating a service without looking into the market for it. Concorde *did* show an operational profit for many years. People were willing to pay for speed, service, and snob-appeal. R&D expenses had to be written-off. It was expensive to design and build. That's not uncommon in systems that advance the state of the art. It took a while to learn how to operate and market Concorde effectively. Changing times ended her career. But in between, she flew profitably. Did it ever make back it's initial development investment? Was it a Rah-Rah we beat the US, screw the UK and French taxpayers? Jim Davis |
#42
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
John Ordover wrote: There is no demand or need for suborbital mail service. The major limiting factor on mail delivery is getting it from the airport to the recipient, not the flight time. Although warnings on packages could now include "Do not exceed five G acceleration!" along with "Fragile!" and "This side up!"...and the stamps would be very cool also- one with an eagle shooting fire out of it's arse and "Via Rocket Mail" on it.... in the amount of a five hundred dollars per ounce. |
#43
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
In article ,
Joann Evans wrote: John Ordover wrote: Concorde -never- cut it. It's a perfect example of creating a service without looking into the market for it. Now, it's entirely possible that Concorde *still* might have been an economic failure, but more than economics were involved. We know people want to fly the routes it did (and could have) flown, but it wasn't just a matter of how much more they would pay for more speed. Concorde was making an operating profit; it's been shut down basically because the planes seem to be breaking down often enough that they're not really safe for a commercial airline. I don't believe that there were governmental subsidies to the operation of Concorde, though writing off the development cost hardly hurt. You can make quite a profit, even with three times the fuel cost of a normal airliner, if you sell 100 seats on every flight at double the cost of a normal first-class flight LHR-NYC. Tom |
#44
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
It was limited by matters outside of market forces:
The unacceptability of sonic booms over inhabited areas. And that could not have been forseen? Seems like a no-brainer. Fuel efficency/consumption that was acceptable when designed, but suffering, post 1973. Making operations unprofitable without a redesign they didn't do and couldn't afford. Engine noise that was acceptable when designed, but suffering under new rules. Again, could be coped with by a redesign they couldnt' afford. Now, it's entirely possible that Concorde *still* might have been an economic failure, but more than economics were involved. We know people want to fly the routes it did (and could have) flown, but it wasn't just a matter of how much more they would pay for more speed. All those considerations are part of the economic picture you have to get a handle on before starting in business. I mean, if you come up with a great new inexpensive way to make shoes, the only problem being that it makes so much noise that neighbors five miles away complain, then you don't have an effective system to put in a city. |
#45
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
"John Ordover" wrote in message om... There have been a multitude of reports on the huge store of energy in the deep sea methane hydrate deposits, with returns as large as the biggest oil fields, but it's too hard to get to and nobody with any money will bother to exploit it. What makes space any different? IMHO: I'm afraid that space is useless as a source of product or services. Jim Davis Even I am more optimistic than that - I think there probably is a way to exploit space to make a bundle that no one has thought of yet. And that way will only be found by people looking for and working on answers, not someone that simply collects negatives. |
#46
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
John Ordover wrote:
It was limited by matters outside of market forces: The unacceptability of sonic booms over inhabited areas. And that could not have been forseen? Seems like a no-brainer. Fuel efficency/consumption that was acceptable when designed, but suffering, post 1973. Making operations unprofitable without a redesign they didn't do and couldn't afford. Engine noise that was acceptable when designed, but suffering under new rules. Again, could be coped with by a redesign they couldnt' afford. Now, it's entirely possible that Concorde *still* might have been an economic failure, but more than economics were involved. We know people want to fly the routes it did (and could have) flown, but it wasn't just a matter of how much more they would pay for more speed. All those considerations are part of the economic picture you have to get a handle on before starting in business. I mean, if you come up with a great new inexpensive way to make shoes, the only problem being that it makes so much noise that neighbors five miles away complain, then you don't have an effective system to put in a city. The sonic boom issue was questionable all along, yes. But it was not clear just how much people would put up with. Now we think we know. However, if you're required to forsee fuel price increases, or new engine noise rules, when your design was about as loud as its operating contemporaries, then all new businesses and projects must hire a psychic, yes? |
#47
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
"Dholmes" wrote in message ... "John Ordover" wrote in message om... You just can not go from Kitty Hawk to passenger flights crossing the Atlantic with the added bonuses of needing to go to Moscow in one leap. I say lets get mail service going first. There is no demand or need for suborbital mail service. The major limiting factor on mail delivery is getting it from the airport to the recipient, not the flight time. How could you misread that so completely? He's got a knack for it. Mail service as written was clearly not literal. Probably the closest thing today are the cargo runs to ISS. Weekly deliveries of less then a ton or monthly deliveries of 3 to 4 tonsof supplies to ISS would start a whole new market by starting volume production and launch of rockets driving down costs. |
#48
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
In sci.space.policy John Ordover wrote:
It was limited by matters outside of market forces: The unacceptability of sonic booms over inhabited areas. And that could not have been forseen? Seems like a no-brainer. Have you ever actually heard one? If a plane goes supersonic at a realtively low altitude, yes, the noise is loud, will rattle the windows, etc. At the heights Conorde flies, it would be at most slightly annoying. So no, it is not something they could have foreseen. -- Sander +++ Out of cheese error +++ |
#49
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
In article ,
Sander Vesik wrote: In sci.space.policy John Ordover wrote: It was limited by matters outside of market forces: The unacceptability of sonic booms over inhabited areas. And that could not have been forseen? Seems like a no-brainer. Have you ever actually heard one? If a plane goes supersonic at a realtively low altitude, yes, the noise is loud, will rattle the windows, etc. At the heights Conorde flies, it would be at most slightly annoying. So no, it is not something they could have foreseen. There's a not-so-unbelievable theory that holds that the reason supersonic flights over major territory were banned was simply that the US, after cancelling the SST project, didn't want the competition to succeed either. So this might have been forseen, but it needed a different crystal ball. There is absolutely no credible reason for banning supersonic Concorde flights over central Australia, for example. Greg. -- Greg Rose INTERNET: Qualcomm Australia VOICE: +61-2-9817 4188 FAX: +61-2-9817 5199 Level 3, 230 Victoria Road, http://people.qualcomm.com/ggr/ Gladesville NSW 2111 232B EC8F 44C6 C853 D68F E107 E6BF CD2F 1081 A37C |
#50
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Even I am more optimistic than that - I think there probably is a way
to exploit space to make a bundle that no one has thought of yet. And that way will only be found by people looking for and working on answers, not someone that simply collects negatives. Assuming they are actually working on it, rather than deluding themselves with dreams of asteroid mining, joyrides, and other such dead ends. |
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