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To sum up, NASA is in danger of going down the old route:
"For every trategy, we need to design all the new infrastructure, including launchers, from scratch, becuase our needs are so unique". The opposite scenario say "Break down the mission and use off the shelf launching, commercially procured launching". My approach would be somewhere in between the two. Use off the shelf, unless there is a clear advantage in developing somewhere new. The sceanrio here (updated at http://fp.alexterrell.plus.com/web/C...stellation.pdf) requires only onepiece of new hardware, a 100 ton to LEO SDHLV, since the Stick does nothing that can't be done by commericial launchers, probably at lowerr cost. The Scenario has the following launches: Phase 1: Eastablish a polar water mining operation, 9 HLV missions Phase 2: Expand the polar base, and set up an equator mining base, 14 HLV missions Phase 3: Build a catapult and start space operations - I move to a rotovator concept launching 5 tons to lunar orbit, with Lunar Orbit assembley. So in total 23 * 100 tons to LEO = 2,300 tons. If we break it down, and use storable propellants, we might need perhaps 3,000 tons to LEO. That translates in to perhaps 150 flights of a Delta 4, Atlas 5 or Falcon 9. Suppose I bought through a tendering process, in blocks of 25 launches over 2 years? What would that do for commercial launch operations? Would this approach require a manned presence in LEO? |
#3
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Thanks, Henry. A very sensible and detailed analysis, as usual.
,------------------------------------------------------------------. | Joseph J. Strout Check out the Mac Web Directory: | | http://www.macwebdir.com | `------------------------------------------------------------------' |
#4
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"Henry Vanderbilt" wrote in message ... Space Access Update #112 09/19/05 Copyright 2005 by Space Access Society I agree with every point in this update. Keep up the good work Henry. I truly hope that NASA will give up on its insistence that they have to develop, own, and operate their own launch vehicles. Jeff -- Remove icky phrase from email address to get a valid address. |
#5
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article snipped
Makes a lot of sense, particularly the in-orbit assembly using commercial launches. What's the point of re-doing Apollo 50 years later? Even if NASA go down this route, I'm sure the program will end up getting cancelled down the line and a more sensible plan will emerge. Problem is it will cost us another 10 years |
#6
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Max Turner wrote: article snipped Makes a lot of sense, particularly the in-orbit assembly using commercial launches. What's the point of re-doing Apollo 50 years later? That's going to be the question. What exactly does this do that Apollo didn't do? As of yet, there is no real answer to that one. I have serious doubts that this plan will ever survive the next administration. Pat |
#7
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Henry Vanderbilt wrote:
We have to ask, after forty years of stunning technological progress, shouldn't we be able to improve on Apollo's cost-to-exploration ratio a bit more than this? We have to ask - what stunning technological leaps have occurred to lead you to assume this is a rational question? - NASA should let go of controlling their own space transportation from start to finish. They should make an exploration plan based on a variety of existing commercially available boosters, then put the entire ground-to-orbit leg of their new deep space missions out to bid. Why should NASA be so different from any other government organization that uses unique hardware and transport? Planning exploration missions for a variety of commercial boosters does several good things. It gives greater program reliability - if one booster has a problem, traffic can be switched to another without putting the program on hold for two years. It gives lower costs, directly as commercial providers compete, Assuming of course that the boosters are interchangeable in the same way a 777 and MD-110 are. indirectly as NASA takes advantage of the cheaper lift to allow engineering more margin into spacecraft designs (thus reducing both development and operating costs), Increasing the number of design generations reduces neither - except in the unlikely event that the changes are so transparent to the end user as to make no difference in planning, maintenance, documentation, etc... etc.. (Which raises the question of why one should bother in the first place.) and it reduces future costs even further since newer cheaper launchers can be phased in as commercial competition makes them available. Assuming that said competition does occur, and their is payoff to the vendors in the form of a large market - from someplace other than NASA. D. -- Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh. -Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings. Oct 5th, 2004 JDL |
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On Mon, 19 Sep 2005 16:01:51 -0500, in a place far, far away, Pat
Flannery made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: What's the point of re-doing Apollo 50 years later? That's going to be the question. What exactly does this do that Apollo didn't do? A few things, but not enough (IMO) to justify the cost and schedule. |
#9
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Derek Lyons wrote:
Planning exploration missions for a variety of commercial boosters does several good things. It gives greater program reliability - if one booster has a problem, traffic can be switched to another without putting the program on hold for two years. It gives lower costs, directly as commercial providers compete, Assuming of course that the boosters are interchangeable in the same way a 777 and MD-110 are. Part of the initial EELV spec was common payload interfaces to allow satellites to be moved between EELVs with minimal/no effort. I've got no idea if this was dropped to save cost or how closely the Boeing and LockMart followed the spec, but I haven't heard any mention of problems with the launches they took from Boeing and gave to LockMart. -jake |
#10
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On 19 Sep 2005 18:55:30 -0700, "Jake McGuire"
wrote: but I haven't heard any mention of problems with the launches they took from Boeing and gave to LockMart. Well, those launches are still something like two years away, I think... Brian |
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