|
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
After seeing whence the funding to build the satellites was coming, I
would have figured that Ariane had an inside track on much of the launches, but it seems that SpaceX have snagged at least a non-trivial chunk: http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20100616 of course, until the satellites are built it is just so much unhatched chickens but still... rick jones -- oxymoron n, Hummer H2 with California Save Our Coasts and Oceans plates these opinions are mine, all mine; HP might not want them anyway... feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hp.com but NOT BOTH... |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
Rick Jones wrote in news:hvdn9v$qd1$2
@usenet01.boi.hp.com: After seeing whence the funding to build the satellites was coming, I would have figured that Ariane had an inside track on much of the launches, but it seems that SpaceX have snagged at least a non-trivial chunk: http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20100616 of course, until the satellites are built it is just so much unhatched chickens but still... I was reading that SpaceX got the lion's share of the contract, in addition to funding to support a multi-payload dispenser. Since the final configuration/dimensions of the spacecraft haven't been settled yet, it's not sure how many a Falcon 9 can launch inside its 5 meter shroud. --Damon |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
Damon Hill wrote:
I was reading that SpaceX got the lion's share of the contract, in addition to funding to support a multi-payload dispenser. Since the final configuration/dimensions of the spacecraft haven't been settled yet, it's not sure how many a Falcon 9 can launch inside its 5 meter shroud. We can probably take a guess or at least as to how many launches are expected - contract is stated as 492 million USD. http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php gives a "list" price of 49.5 to 56 million USD. I doubt Iridium is paying list, but I also doubt that SpaceX can discount all *that* heavily. I'll wave my hands and say 40 to 45 million USD per launch. Ass-u-me the dispenser is what 10 million to develop? Call it 10 to 11 launches. Perhaps 12. Assuming the satellite isn't delayed, those would be over a two year period starting in 2015. Hope Vandeberg isn't all that busy Iridium is saying 66 operational satellites with 6 on-orbit spares. Lion's share would be at least 51% of that or 37 satellites. That then suggests three to four satellites per launch. If lion's share is 2/3 that is 47-48 satellites, or 4 to 5 per launch. All rather hand-wavy of course. There may be other ways to guesstimate - say on the basis of the orbits being used and how many satellites in each, or I suppose one could ass-u-me the next gen satellite was within say 10-20% each way of the mass and volume of the frist gen. rick jones -- I don't interest myself in "why." I think more often in terms of "when," sometimes "where;" always "how much." - Joubert these opinions are mine, all mine; HP might not want them anyway... feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hp.com but NOT BOTH... |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
Rick Jones wrote:
Damon Hill wrote: I was reading that SpaceX got the lion's share of the contract, in addition to funding to support a multi-payload dispenser. Since the final configuration/dimensions of the spacecraft haven't been settled yet, it's not sure how many a Falcon 9 can launch inside its 5 meter shroud. We can probably take a guess or at least as to how many launches are expected - contract is stated as 492 million USD. http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php gives a "list" price of 49.5 to 56 million USD. I doubt Iridium is paying list, but I also doubt that SpaceX can discount all *that* heavily. I'll wave my hands and say 40 to 45 million USD per launch. Ass-u-me the dispenser is what 10 million to develop? Call it 10 to 11 launches. Perhaps 12. Assuming the satellite isn't delayed, those would be over a two year period starting in 2015. Hope Vandeberg isn't all that busy Iridium is saying 66 operational satellites with 6 on-orbit spares. Lion's share would be at least 51% of that or 37 satellites. That then suggests three to four satellites per launch. If lion's share is 2/3 that is 47-48 satellites, or 4 to 5 per launch. All rather hand-wavy of course. There may be other ways to guesstimate - say on the basis of the orbits being used and how many satellites in each, or I suppose one could ass-u-me the next gen satellite was within say 10-20% each way of the mass and volume of the frist gen. I went perusing the web, it seems the initial 72 first-generation satellites were orbited in 15 launches which is an average of 4.8 per launch. rick jones -- Wisdom Teeth are impacted, people are affected by the effects of events. these opinions are mine, all mine; HP might not want them anyway... feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hp.com but NOT BOTH... |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
On Thu, 17 Jun 2010 21:59:58 +0000 (UTC), Rick Jones
wrote: Damon Hill wrote: I was reading that SpaceX got the lion's share of the contract, in addition to funding to support a multi-payload dispenser. Since the final configuration/dimensions of the spacecraft haven't been settled yet, it's not sure how many a Falcon 9 can launch inside its 5 meter shroud. We can probably take a guess or at least as to how many launches are expected - contract is stated as 492 million USD. http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php gives a "list" price of 49.5 to 56 million USD. I doubt Iridium is paying list, but I also doubt that SpaceX can discount all *that* heavily. I'll wave my hands and say 40 to 45 million USD per launch. Ass-u-me the dispenser is what 10 million to develop? Another variable is "how much is it costing SpaceX to build the pad at Vandenberg and is that cost charged to Iridium?" (Do they have any other polar customers for Falcon 9?) SpaceX might be able to use dispensor developed for Delta II. Iridium is saying 66 operational satellites with 6 on-orbit spares. Lion's share would be at least 51% of that or 37 satellites. That then suggests three to four satellites per launch. If lion's share is 2/3 that is 47-48 satellites, or 4 to 5 per launch. Delta II carried five per launch in a smaller shroud while Proton launched six at a time. I'd say five per flight is likely for Falcon 9, which is in roughly the same payload class as Delta II. Brian |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
On Sun, 20 Jun 2010 12:25:25 -0800, Pat Flannery
wrote: Another variable is "how much is it costing SpaceX to build the pad at Vandenberg and is that cost charged to Iridium?" (Do they have any other polar customers for Falcon 9?) They going to build a pad there or out at their Pacific operations base on Omelek Island in the Kwajalein Atoll? They're taking over SLC-4 at Vandenberg. Brian |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
On 6/20/2010 8:35 AM, Brian Thorn wrote:
Another variable is "how much is it costing SpaceX to build the pad at Vandenberg and is that cost charged to Iridium?" (Do they have any other polar customers for Falcon 9?) They going to build a pad there or out at their Pacific operations base on Omelek Island in the Kwajalein Atoll? Pat |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
Brian Thorn wrote:
Another variable is "how much is it costing SpaceX to build the pad at Vandenberg and is that cost charged to Iridium?" (Do they have any other polar customers for Falcon 9?) The launch manifest at: http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php shows two F9 launches for "CONAE (Argentina)" from Vandenberg prior to the Iridium launches. They do have "**" which lead to " **Or Kwajalein, depending on range availability" but I've not heard of any actual construction work for an F9 pad at Kwajalein. The manifest is giving 2012 for the first one - of course their "Target Data" is simply equipment to the launch site... so they would probably have time to work-up an F9 pad at Kwajalein if they needed to. rick jones -- Wisdom Teeth are impacted, people are affected by the effects of events. these opinions are mine, all mine; HP might not want them anyway... feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hp.com but NOT BOTH... |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
On Jun 17, 10:50*am, Rick Jones wrote:
of course, until the satellites are built it is just so much unhatched chickens but still... It really amazing to see that Iridium has actually recovered over the years from being at Death's Doorstep financially to the point where they can actually start letting out contracts for a new generation constellation of satellites. -Mike |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
I guess it won't be all Ariane for Iridium NEXT
Mike DiCenso wrote:
On Jun 17, 10:50?am, Rick Jones wrote: of course, until the satellites are built it is just so much unhatched chickens but still... It really amazing to see that Iridium has actually recovered over the years from being at Death's Doorstep financially to the point where they can actually start letting out contracts for a new generation constellation of satellites. The power of the bankruptcy "do over" is indeed remarkable. I have to wonder though - they got something on the order of 1.8 billion USD in credit for the next-gen satellites and launches. Their Q1 2010 revenues were not quite 82 million USD. And they were claiming that 2010 would still come-in at something like 145 to 155 million USD EBITDA. They must be expecting rather large increases in revenue and earnings with the next generation satellites to pay-off that debt. rick jones -- A: Because it fouls the order in which people normally read text. Q: Why is top-posting such a bad thing? A: Top-posting. Q: What is the most annoying thing on usenet and in e-mail? |
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Let me guess... | Nightcrawler | Misc | 0 | January 3rd 10 07:59 AM |
Guess what, I was right! | Andrew Usher | Astronomy Misc | 17 | January 24th 09 01:30 AM |
It could always be worse, (I guess) | surfduke | History | 10 | March 10th 07 03:47 PM |
ascii iSS GUESS. | brian a m stuckless | Policy | 0 | January 1st 06 02:19 PM |
ascii iSS GUESS. | brian a m stuckless | Astronomy Misc | 0 | January 1st 06 02:19 PM |